No, Trump isn't finished. His durable presidency is just beginning
How many times have we heard that Donald Trump is finished? That narrative was adopted almost from Day One of his presidential campaign. From scornful predictions about his chances in the primaries to faulty polls predicting President Hillary Clinton, from the phony Russian collusion story through the Ukrainian phone call impeachment and acquittal, Donald Trump has had more obituaries written about him than most actually deceased presidents. So far, all the pundits and prognosticators have been wrong. And they still are.
Look at the past few months. Back in mid-March, The Atlantic ran a piece by "Never Trumper" Peter Wehner titled, “The Trump presidency is over.” The thesis — very typical — was that the administration’s response to the COVID-19 crisis was about to take Trump down. “His administration may stagger on,” Wehner wrote, “but it will be only a hollow shell.”
Two weeks after that opinion column appeared, Trump’s approval rating for handling the crisis reached its record high. It has since settled from that peak but not to “hollow shell” levels.
The economic shock of the coronavirus lockdown was also supposed to spell the end. An article on Yahoo Finance predicted that the downturn presaged “a death sentence for presidential reelection hopes.” Experts suggested that if there were a recovery at all, it would not be a swift “V” shaped rebound but a grinding, long-term “U” shaped slog.
The experts were wrong yet again. Trump’s approval numbers on handling the economy have remained in positive territory throughout the temporary downturn. The stock market has rebounded strongly; the NASDAQ is back in record territory. And the unexpected gain of 2.5 million jobs pushed unemployment down to 13.3%, the largest monthly gain ever on record.
Now the crisis following the killing of George Floyd has become the hoped-for tectonic event that critics believe will finally do Trump in politically. In the past week, the anti-Trump narratives have come thick and fast. When protesters occupied Lafayette Square, the president was said to be hunkered down in a bunker, and a doctored picture of a darkened White House was widely circulated that later proved to be a stock photo from the Obama era. Commentators were more agitated with Trump standing in front of St. John's Episcopal Church holding a Bible than they were when supposedly peaceful protesters set fire to it the night before.
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Trump's durability
Trump is so durable, his critics want to pretend he doesn’t exist:
►Trump has “relinquished the core duties and responsibilities of the presidency,” Robert Reich wrote. “He is no longer president. The sooner we stop treating him as if he were, the better.”
►The Washington Post’s Jennifer Rubin, who declares Trump defunct on a regular basis, said gradual defections from the Trump camp will sink him and “this is how history is made.”
►Also in The Post, Brian Klaas conjured an apocalyptic vision of Trump as dictator, threatening the president’s supporters that “history will judge you.”
►Paul Krugman at The New York Times said Republicans would be happy with Trump as dictator and predicted that “given Trump’s determination to put troops in the streets of America’s cities, it’s quite likely that innocent civilians will be shot at some point.” Krugman did not mention David Dorn, a retired police captain and African American shot and killed by St. Louis pawn shop looters. His life mattered, too.
Klass noted that “polls suggest Trump’s ship is sinking.” Do they?
According to FiveThirtyEight polling aggregates, Trump’s decline comes from post-inauguration highs in early April. He is above his worst numbers from December 2017, when the Russian collusion “insurance policy” was in full swing.
And Trump’s numbers compare favorably with his immediate two-term predecessors. Gallup long-term poll data shows Trump following a nearly identical opinion track as President Barack Obama for the last 10 months, and he is also even with President George W. Bush at this point in his presidency. By contrast, Trump is about 10 points above both our most recent one-term presidents, George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter.
The hyperbole of Trump's critics
What works most in Trump’s favor is the hyperbole of his critics. If Trump denounces far-left militant antifa as terrorists, some rush to defend them. If Trump praises law enforcement, progressives rush to defund them. Biden backers try to elevate Joe as a historic leader who can heal the nation when his civil rights record is worse than Trump’s. Trump’s best reelection guarantee will be if Democrats cave to the extremist narrative of a fundamentally racist America requiring radical progressive change.
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Given the dismal track record of the president’s critics, there should be an editorial moratorium on “Trump is finished” pieces until after his reelection. Then they can run with that narrative until it finally comes true in 2025.
James S. Robbins, a member of USA TODAY's Board of Contributors and author of "This Time We Win: Revisiting the Tet Offensive," has taught at the National Defense University and the Marine Corps University and served as a special assistant in the office of the secretary of Defense in the George W. Bush administration. Follow him on Twitter: @James_Robbins
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 'Trump is finished' narrative is always wrong
