NOAA revises hurricane forecast, predicts more storms

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel
·2 min read

The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season was on track to outpace 2020 before quieting down the last couple of weeks, but the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration still sees the signs for more storms.

The NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center releases a mid-season update to its hurricane season forecast every year, and with Wednesday’s update, the outlook for what was predicted to be an above-normal season has increased.

The new forecast now predicts 15-21 named storms with sustained winds of 39 mph or greater. Of that, 7-10 hurricanes are expected. And of those, 3-5 could become major hurricanes with sustained wind speeds of 111 mph or greater. Those numbers are up slightly from its May 20 forecast that predicted 13-20 named storms with 6-10 becoming hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes.

This year has already seen five named storms, the most recent of which, Hurricane Elsa, made landfall in Florida as a strong tropical storm back on July 8. Elsa was the earliest fifth named storm on record, besting the busy 2020 season’s Tropical Storm Edouard.

But the tropics have been quiet since Elsa, so 2020′s array of record-breaking named storms could hold unless 2021 picks up the pace of storm production. 2020′s Tropical Storm Fay formed on July 9, and 2020 then kept rattling off another 24 named systems before the end of hurricane season on Nov. 30.

“After a record-setting start, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season does not show any signs of relenting as it enters the peak months ahead,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad in a press release. “NOAA will continue to provide the science and services that are foundational to keeping communities prepared for any threatening storm.”

The NOAA have now updated their prediction that there is a 65% chance of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. That’s up from the 60% prediction from May.

“A mix of competing oceanic and atmospheric conditions generally favor above-average activity for the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season, including the potential return of La Niña in the months ahead,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center.