North Carolina basketball vs. NC State: Score prediction for ACC rivalry showdown

North Carolina basketball has fared well against NC State at the Smith Center.

The Tar Heels (13-6, 5-3 ACC) haven’t lost to the Wolfpack (15-4, 5-3) in Chapel Hill since 2018, but that won’t mean much once the ball is tipped Saturday (5 p.m., ACC Network).

After winning four league games last season, NC State rides a four-game winning streak – including victories against Duke and Miami – into this season’s trip to UNC. The Tar Heels are coming off wins against Louisville and Boston College.

Here are some things to know and a score prediction ahead of Carolina’s game against NC State.

Armando Bacot vs. DJ Burns

If NC State wants ice cream Saturday, DJ Burns might be the most important player in helping the Wolfpack pull off a rare win in Chapel Hill.

An emotional leader for the Wolfpack, Burns is averaging 9.9 points and 4.7 rebounds in just over 20 minutes per game. The senior has shined in State’s biggest wins of the season; He had 18 points and four blocks in a rout of Duke before nearly logging a triple-double with 13 points, nine rebounds and seven assists in a win against Miami.

WHAT'S THE WORD?:UNC basketball’s Hubert Davis learns new word from Armando Bacot

BIG-TIME WIN:Duke basketball misses first 13 shots, suffers worst loss to NC State in 50 years

But Burns and the Wolfpack face a tall task in slowing down UNC’s Armando Bacot, who is averaging 17.6 points and 11.2 rebounds this season. In two wins against the Wolfpack as a junior, Bacot averaged 23 points and 15.5 rebounds.

Caleb Love-RJ Davis vs. Terquavion Smith-Jarkell Joiner

It’s a battle between two of the top backcourts in the ACC, but NC State’s duo has been a bit more consistent.

Terquavion Smith, the ACC’s leading scorer at 19.1 points per game, and senior Jarkell Joiner (16.2 ppg, 3.5 apg) have given sixth-year coach Kevin Keatts arguably his best backcourt since he arrived in Raleigh.

Following UNC’s run to the Final Four, Caleb Love (16.3 ppg) and RJ Davis (16.3 ppg) entered the season with most of the hype as the league’s top guard duo, but Smith and Joiner have been better through 19 games.

In 10 of State’s 19 games, Smith has been the leading scorer, including five straight. He’s also averaging 4.7 assists per game. The Greenville native dropped 34 points in a 100-80 loss at UNC last season.

Making up for Brady Manek

In his lone season with the Tar Heels, Brady Manek averaged 16.5 points in two wins against NC State.

With Manek playing professionally in Australia, UNC continues to mix and match its lineup to make up for that absence. Pete Nance, who missed several games with a back injury, slid into Manek’s spot in the starting lineup. Nance is averaging 10.6 points and 6.0 rebounds.

Because of injuries to Nance, Bacot and Jalen Washington – who sprained his ankle in shootaround ahead of the Boston College game – the Tar Heels have been forced to rely on their bench a bit more.

D’Marco Dunn, Puff Johnson and Seth Trimble are averaging 13-plus minutes as reserves. Their production will be key against a Wolfpack squad that ranks 45th in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.com. That’s the best mark of Keatts’ tenure.

UNC basketball score prediction vs. NC State

UNC 82, NC State 78: Terquavion Smith is more than capable of leading the Wolfpack to a win in Chapel Hill, but Carolina’s best players – Armando Bacot, RJ Davis and Caleb Love – tend to bring their best against the Pack. It should come down to the wire, but UNC will improve to 10-0 at home.

Staff writer Rodd Baxley can be reached at rbaxley@fayobserver.com or @RoddBaxley on Twitter.

This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: UNC basketball score prediction vs. NC State: Here's how it shakes out