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North Carolina basketball vs. Virginia: Scouting report, score prediction for ACC matchup

rodd baxley, the fayetteville observer
·2 min read
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North Carolina basketball will get another opportunity to add a quality win to its NCAA Tournament resume this weekend against No. 6 Virginia.

The Tar Heels (17-11, 9-8 ACC), who snapped a two-game losing skid with a win at Notre Dame, face the Cavaliers (21-5, 13-4) on Saturday (6 p.m., ESPN) at the Smith Center.

Virginia earned a 65-58 win against UNC on Jan. 10 in Charlottesville. Here are some things to know and a score prediction ahead of Carolina’s game against the Cavaliers.

Armando Bacot is back

Armando Bacot will get a redo against Virginia. The Tar Heels’ double-double machine (17.3 points per game, 11.1 rebounds per game) injured his ankle in the opening minutes of UNC’s loss at Virginia in January. It’s impossible to replicate the influence Bacot has for the Tar Heels. In last season’s win against the Cavaliers at the Smith Center, Bacot had 29 points and 22 rebounds.

Virginia’s offensive struggles

Coming off a 15-point loss at Boston College, the Cavaliers are as vulnerable as they’ve been all season.

During its past three games, Virginia shot 37.6% and failed to reach 60 points in two of those contests. Armaan Franklin, Virginia’s leading scorer at 12.4 points per game, is coming off a 4-point performance against Boston College.

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Ben Vander Plas, who scored 17 against UNC in January, has reached double-figures scoring twice in the past nine games, and Reece Beekman, one of the top two-way players in the ACC, has single-digit scoring efforts in three of the past four games.

UNC's rebounding

Carolina’s shooting woes continued at Notre Dame to keep the Tar Heels on track for one of their worst shooting-percentage seasons in program history. UNC’s effective field-goal percentage (48.9%) ranks 256th in the nation, according to KenPom.com.

Against the Irish, the Heels made up for their deficiencies with their relentless pursuit of rebounds. They grabbed a season-high 23 offensive rebounds and had a plus-14 margin in second-chance points. If UNC is to win Saturday, extra opportunities on the glass will be a key factor.

UNC vs. Virginia score prediction

UNC 67, Virginia 63: The Heels are 11-2 at home and nearly upset Virginia in Charlottesville without Armando Bacot. Despite their shooting struggles, with Bacot back, UNC will find a way to get a signature win at home.

Staff writer Rodd Baxley can be reached at rbaxley@fayobserver.com or @RoddBaxley on Twitter.

This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: UNC basketball vs. Virginia: Scouting report, score prediction