When will North Texas reach COVID-19 herd immunity? Sooner than you might think
With coronavirus vaccinations ramping up and cases decreasing, North Texas is only months away from reaching herd immunity, an expert predicted.
A mix infections and vaccinations has North Texas at about 60% immunity, close to the minimum 80% that would make it safe to roll back mitigation strategies, said Dr. Rajesh Nandy, an associate professor of biostatistics and epidemiology in the University of North Texas Health Science Center’s School of Public Health. That should happen around mid-June.
“When we reach that, we can say ‘OK, we have some semblance of normalcy and it’s kind of under control,” Nandy said.
Nandy used infection and vaccination data from Tarrant, Dallas, Denton and Collin counties in his assessment.
Nandy predicts most activities can be back to normal this summer but urges caution because of the variants. President Joe Biden has said his goal is for Americans to gather and celebrate the Fourth of July. Tarrant County Judge Glen Whitley has also said he wants Independence Day to signal independence from the virus that caused death and economic turmoil for more than a year.
New guidance says that fully vaccinated people can gather indoors with other people without masks unless someone is at high risk.
Dallas County has said a return to normal will happen when the number of confirmed and probable new cases falls below 1 per 100,000, or 27 new cases per day, over 14 consecutive days. Tarrant County has not announced a figure but it is at 59 cases per 100,000 people over seven days.
More than 11 million Texans have received at least one shot. Tarrant County has administered 581,842 doses, with 9% of the population fully vaccinated.
A single dose of Pfizer’s or Moderna’s vaccine is 80% effective in preventing infections, according to a new Centers for Disease Control and Prevention study of vaccinated health-care workers. With the second dose, the effectiveness jumps to 90%.
Tarrant County’s positivity rate of 6% is the lowest since March 2020. Coronavirus patients occupy 4% of hospital beds, down from the peak of 30% in January. On average, people with the disease are transmitting the coronavirus to less than one person.
Because of vaccines, Nandy believes there won’t be another surge.
Testing demand in Tarrant County has been on a decline. Two large sites that were operated by the state have closed.
Vinny Taneja, the county’s public health director, said the county administered about 40,000 tests a week during the peak. Only recently about 10 to 20 people a day were showing up to the state-run sites, which prompted their closure.
A UT Southwestern model predicts a small uptick in cases. Nandy believes officials should continue to monitor the positivity rate, which has remained low. There could be an uptick because of spring break, but nothing North Texas can’t handle, he believes.
“As of now I think there is no reason for alarm, but we have to keep monitoring,” he said.
