Winter precipitation, rapid freeze-up among storm dangers in Northeast
A dynamic winter storm of massive proportions began to unload winter precipitation across interior parts of the Northeast early Thursday, and a number of hazardous and disruptive weather impacts will continue to unfold in the Northeast in the days leading up to Christmas, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
The worst of the storm's winds, cold blast and freeze-up were heading to the Interstate 95 corridor on Friday.
The central Appalachians, mid-Atlantic and New England will experience strong winds, and much of the region can expect drenching rain. Some locations over the Appalachians will even receive a burst of snow from the Midwest blizzard. Any rain or wet snow that falls on Friday is at risk of rapidly freezing, which will threaten treacherous conditions for traveling and walking.
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This map reflects anticipated conditions on the roads. Flight disruptions are likely to be even more significant with ripple effects across the United States as aircraft and crews are displaced by the storm. |
Even though the worst conditions from the storm will be in the Midwest and particularly around the Great Lakes moving forward this weekend, major airline delays and a large number of flight cancellations are likely at the major travel hubs and regional airports in the Northeast and throughout the nation.
AccuWeather meteorologists continue to stress that those with flexible travel plans should consider leaving for their destination ahead of the storm.
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This map reflects anticipated conditions on the roads. Flight disruptions are likely to be even more significant with ripple effects across the United States as aircraft and crews are displaced by the storm. |
In the Northeast, the first precipitation from the storm had already overspread the region in a southwest-to-northeast direction through Friday morning.
The storm began as a wintry mix in the central Appalachians. Snow, sleet and freezing rain made for slippery travel conditions from the West Virginia mountains all the way up to northwestern New England, AccuWeather forecasters say. Where a change to rain was delayed, several inches of snow piled up.
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Along Interstate 95, most of the storm's precipitation will occur in the form of drenching rain due to warming south to southeasterly winds.
"Temperatures will surge into the 50s F all across the Delmarva Peninsula, up into New Jersey, southeastern New York and southern New England early Friday," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Joe Lundberg said.
"Some places along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts could even touch 60 [degrees] just hours ahead of a massive outbreak of frigid air," Lundberg added.
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The rain could significantly reduce the visibility for highway travelers, and also fall at a heavy enough rate to lead to ponding on some streets and highways.
"The combination of rain and melting snow in parts of upstate New York and New England can lead to small stream flooding," Lundberg said. Significant rises on some of the major rivers are likely as well, but with the region still in drought recovery mode, flooding is likely to be limited to unprotected areas along the riverbanks.
The strengthening south to southeasterly winds on the front side of the storm can frequently gust to 40 and 60 mph into Friday afternoon. However, peak gusts up to 74-90 mph, which are equivalent in strength to those produced by a Category 1 hurricane, are possible along the Atlantic coast.
The high winds will raise the risk of falling tree limbs, power outages and minor to moderate coastal flooding. A water level rise of 2-3 feet is likely during the storm with flooding likely at times of high tide from early Friday morning through Friday evening along the upper mid-Atlantic and New England coasts.
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As crazy as the weather may seem, a number of locations may have thunder and lightning ahead of and with the passage of the storm's powerful cold front.
As soon as a strong cold front associated with the storm pivots through the Interstate 81 and 95 corridors, temperatures will plummet from Friday afternoon to Friday night. In some cases, a temperature drop of 30-50 degrees can occur in a matter of several hours.
"This is about as extreme of a temperature drop there can be in the Northeast," Lundberg said.
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For example, the temperature at Philadelphia Friday morning surged into the 50s. However, soon after the cold front sweeps through with powerful wind gusts, the rain will end and temperatures will plummet through the 30s and into the 20s by late Friday afternoon.
"In many cases, the strong winds will blow the roads dry in the I-95 corridor in the wake of the cold front on Friday and Friday evening," Lundberg said. "However, there is the possibility that some surfaces may not have a chance to dry off and may rapidly freeze as people head home."
Roads may become icy within minutes across the central Appalachians during the midday hours on Friday. In the northern and western suburbs of major cities to right along the I-95 corridor of the mid-Atlantic, the freeze-up can begin in the afternoon on Friday. The rapid freeze-up dangers will increase over much of New England during Friday evening.
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The 24-hour temperature drop from Friday to Saturday could rival records. "In Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, that temperature drop could be 45 degrees or more," AccuWeather Senior Weather Editor Jesse Ferrell said. "The record [for greatest temperature dip within 24 hours] is 48 degrees set in both 1981 and 1978."
In portions of the central Appalachians to interior New England, the cold air may sweep in so fast that rain could end as a burst of accumulating snow.
Up to a few inches of snow may fall from parts of western Pennsylvania to northern Maine. Any snow and slush that occurs will rapidly become difficult to remove as temperatures fall into the 20s, teens and even the single digits. Temperatures had already plummeted to just above zero in Pittsburgh for the morning drive on Friday.
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Little recovery in temperature is anticipated in the Northeast from Christmas Eve through Christmas Day and into Monday. Temperatures may not top the freezing mark as far south as Washington. D.C., Saturday, Sunday and Monday.
Winds on the back end of the storm that will rapidly usher in frigid air can be just as strong as the warm winds at the onset of the storm. Gusts of 40-60 mph are forecast, and AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gusts near 90 mph will be possible.
The combination of the actual temperature, wind and other weather factors will result in AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures reaching well below zero in the central Appalachians to the single digits and teens along the I-95 corridor from Friday night through Christmas Day.
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It is possible that some neighborhoods may face extended power outages through the Christmas weekend, and some homes could lose their primary source of heat, as crews may struggle to restore all downed power lines in a timely manner due to the anticipated extreme conditions.
The frigid weather will make it dangerous to be outdoors for extended periods of time if not properly dressed. Some individuals could be at risk for respiratory and cardiac problems, experts say.
Even though Christmas 2022 will be far from the coldest on record, it is likely to be the coldest in decades in much of the region and the Midwest. In New York City, this Christmas is likely to be the coldest since at least 2000 when the high was 27, and the low was 15 at Central Park. Another benchmark was in 1989 when the high was 26 and the low was 14. Farther back, in 1983, the high was 13 and the low was 4 on Christmas Day. A high in the mid-20s and a low in the upper teens are forecast for this Christmas Day in the Big Apple. The coldest Dec. 25 on record there was in 1980 when temperatures bottomed out at 1 below zero.
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People heading westward through the Appalachians and into the Midwest from Friday through Christmas Day could face major disruptions and lengthy road closures due to the snowfall and freeze-up, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
But, just as the snow from the storm eases, lake-effect snow will ramp up and add up to a several feet of accumulation to the winter scape in the traditional locations from Michigan to northwestern Pennsylvania and western and northern New York state during the Christmas weekend. High-velocity winds during the first part of the lake-effect outbreak could lead to mountainous drifts.
Around Buffalo, New York, the unfolding blizzard this weekend could rival some of the worst on record, factoring in the severe cold, rate of snow and massive drifts.
The weather is likely to flip dramatically once again around the start of the new year, according to AccuWeather's team of long-range forecasters. Temperatures may surge into the 40s, 50s and even the 60s in some locations as 2022 ends and 2023 begins.
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