Not all ACC games count the same for NC State Wolfpack

N.C. State got what it needed at Syracuse. Now the Wolfpack will face Boston College on the road on Sunday (6 p.m., ACC Network).

Since the Eagles (12-13, 6-8 ACC) are No. 146 in the NCAA’s NET rankings, a win won’t help the Wolfpack (16-8, 7-6) the same way as Tuesday’s road win over the Orange, which is ranked high enough (No. 69 before Saturday’s games) to qualify as a “Quadrant 1” win.

Which leads to the question: Do games outside the top quadrant matter?

Yes, is the obvious answer. You can’t lose every game outside the top quadrant and get in the NCAA tournament. But that’s going to an extreme. With the NCAA, any outlier is bad.

But, in general, the NCAA tournament selection committee rewards teams for “good wins” more than it punishes them for “bad losses.” It doesn’t specifically reward teams for “good losses” but since strength of schedule is one of the primary factors in the selection process, so there is a benefit to playing tough games.

But do the games in the middle two quadrants really matter? N.C. State was 5-0 in Q2 games and 4-2 Q3 games last season and ended up in the NIT.

The lack of quality wins, the “Q1” games, were the biggest knock on Kevin Keatts’ team in the 2018-2019 season. N.C. State went 2-8 in Q1 games during the regular season and then split a pair in the ACC tournament.

The Wolfpack went into Selection Sunday with a 3-9 record in Q1 games. It has a 3-2 record in Q1 games this season with three more left (two against Duke and one with Florida State) on the schedule, plus more potential opportunities in the ACC tournament in Greensboro next month.

But do “bad losses” hurt? Most of them really don’t. Arizona State had two Q4 losses last season and made the NCAA tournament. Of the final 10 at-large teams to make the field (going by seed), all of them had at least one Q3 loss and five had two Q3 losses. Arizona State had four total Q3/Q4 losses and were not punished.

Sometimes a loss is so egregious, the committee does hold it against you. In 2016, San Diego State was on the bubble with a 25-9 record and had a 53-48 loss to San Diego, No. 302 in the RPI (the NCAA’s old metric), on its resume.

Like any other factor the committee considers, you want to avoid the outliers. N.C. State’s nonconference SOS was No. 353, or last in all of Division I, on Selection Sunday last year. That was bad.

That’s not an issue this year. N.C. State’s out-of-league schedule ranked No. 72, heading into Saturday’s games. In general, N.C. State is in a better position to make the tournament this time around than it was last season.

Keatts said earlier this season that he would not talk about the NET this season. That’s because N.C. State was No. 33 on Selection Sunday and the highest-rated team to be left out (while St. John’s made it at No. 73) of the field.

The basic rule of the NET: Your ranking doesn’t matter but your opponent’s does.

In the case of the Eagles, that No. 146 can be deceiving. They have already picked off ACC bubble teams Notre Dame and Virginia at home. They also won at Virginia Tech and North Carolina.

So a repeat of N.C. State’s 26-point blowout win at Conte Forum is not a given. Either way, the result is unlikely to matter to the Wolfpack’s NCAA chances as much as its three games remaining with Duke and FSU.

N.C. State’s resume comparison

Note: *through March 17, 2019

This season by quadrants:

Q1: Wins (at UVa, at UNCG, at Syracuse); Losses (Louisville, at Auburn)

Q2: Wins (Wisky, ND, at Wake, at Miami); Losses (v-Memphis, at Clemson, at VT, at GT)

Q3: Wins (Clemson, Miami, UALR); Losses (GT, UNC)

Q4: Wins (FIU, App State, Detroit, St. Francis, Alcorn, The Citadel)

NC State at Boston College

When: Sunday, 6 p.m.

Where: Conte Forum, Chestnut Hill, Mass.

Watch: ACC Network

Listen: WRAL-101.5, WXRC-95.7

NC State (16-8, 7-6 ACC)

G C.J. Bryce 14.0 ppg, 6.3 rpg

G Devon Daniels 12.0 ppg, 4.8 rpg

G Braxton Beverly 7.4.0 ppg, 1.8 rpg

F D.J. Funderburk 12.3 ppg, 5.8 rpg

F Manny Bates 5.4 ppg, 4.0 rpg

Boston College (12-13, 6-8 ACC)

G Derryck Thornton 12.7 ppg, 3.5 apg

G Jay Heath 12.5 ppg, 3.4 rpg

G CJ Felder 5.9 ppg, 4.0 rpg

F Jarius Hamilton 9.6 ppg, 4.5 rpg

F Steffen Mitchell 7.4 ppg, 8.6 rpg