If not Biden vs. Trump in 2024, then what are the most likely candidate match-ups?

If not Trump vs. Biden again in 2024, as now seems very likely, what other candidate match-up could we see for president?

Maybe Vice President Kamala Harris vs. Gov. Ron DeSantis?  Doesn’t seem likely now. Some Democrats grumble that Harris shouldn’t even be on the ticket for vice president next time. And a recent Emerson College poll of New Hampshire Republicans showed Trump favored by 58%, with just 17% for DeSantis.

Maybe Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg vs. former Vice President Mike Pence? A battle of Indiana natives is a remote possibility.

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Buttigieg won’t run if Biden does. He will support Biden, not challenge an incumbent now improving in polls, with 71% of Democrats in one national poll saying that Biden should be re-nominated.

Pence now says that Trump’s “reckless words (on Jan. 6) endangered my family and everyone at the Capitol that day, and I know history will hold Donald Trump accountable.” That would have been more effective and impressive right after the insurrection, with Pence then immediately the No. 1 challenger to Trump. Also, the MAGA base won’t forgive Pence for not throwing the election to Trump.

More on South Bend’s Mayor Pete in a bit.

First, the seeming inevitability of Trump vs. Biden.

Trump is gaining support among Republicans as it becomes clear he is running again and as they take a closer look at a comparison with DeSantis.

In addition to that New Hampshire survey, polls of Republicans nationally also find Trump doing well. The Emerson poll found Trump with 55% support among Republicans nationally, with 25% for DeSantis, 8% for Pence.

There is no indication that indictment of Trump in any of the investigations of possible criminal conduct would diminish support much, if any. Indeed, as he famously said, he could shoot someone in the middle New York’s Fifth Avenue and not lose his supporters. They would say the shooting was fake news or that the victim was some “woke” radical who deserved to be shot.

Even if Trump’s support among more traditional Republicans does slip, his solid MAGA base would provide enough support for him to win a contested presidential primary in which other contenders, DeSantis, Pence and likely more, would split up the “against” vote.

Sure, some serious health problem could keep Trump from the nomination. With that unwavering base, however, he might prevail from a hospital bed.

As with Trump, it would take a serious health problem to sidetrack Biden’s candidacy.

So what if Biden were sidetracked? Who would be the Democratic nominee?

A new Washington Post analysis, finding of course that Biden is the likely nominee, lists Buttigieg next in the ranking.

His job as transportation secretary “has turned into a slog thanks to a series of crises,” the Post analysis notes, citing in particular the East Palestine train derailment. Still, just as in a past Post analysis, Buttigieg is ranked ahead of Harris for the nomination.

Buttigieg, though savaged in Republican attacks for delay in getting to the derailment site, won praise from Democrats who thought his comments and conduct made Trump, who was there the day before, look silly.

The analysis of Harris noted: “It’s generally not a good sign when the chatter turns from your own presidential prospects to whether the president will even keep you on the ticket if he runs.”

Others following in order in the Post’s rankings were Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Sen. Bernie Sanders.

Sure, there’s grumbling about another Trump vs. Biden race. But when have voters ever said they were overjoyed at the choice of presidential nominees?

One thing is certain, a Trump vs. Biden match-up would provide again a real contrast, a real choice for voters in deciding which way they want the nation headed.

Jack Colwell is a columnist for The Tribune. Write to him in care of The Tribune or by email at jcolwell@comcast.net.

This article originally appeared on South Bend Tribune: If not Biden vs. Trump, what presidential match-ups are likely in 2024?