Not many expected Heat to make deep playoff run this season, but Tyler Herro did

There aren’t many who expected the Miami Heat to make a deep playoff run. After one of the most frustrating regular seasons in franchise history, the Heat entered the playoffs as the Eastern Conference’s No. 8 seed and No. 8 seeds are usually eliminated in the opening round.

But with Miami entering Game 5 of the East finals on Thursday night against the Boston Celtics at TD Garden just one win away from becoming the second No. 8 seed in league history to advance to the NBA Finals, Heat guard Tyler Herro looks like Nostradamus.

“I feel like we have, I don’t know, I feel like something good is going to happen over these next couple of months,” Herro said to the Miami Herald on the morning of the Heat’s ugly play-in tournament home loss to the Atlanta Hawks on April 11. “I just feel like with the year that we’ve had and the team that we have, the guys that we have, I feel like we still have enough in us to push toward a championship. I kind of feel like that’s where it’s trending.

“Obviously, it’s not going to be easy. We’re going to have to hit some tough shots and a lot of things are going to have to go our way. But it’s not impossible. I think we have the right guys with the right mindset to do it.”

It’s been six weeks since that comment from Herro and a lot has transpired since then.

▪ After an April 11 play-in tournament loss to the Hawks, the Heat faced a win-or-go-home situation a few nights later. The Heat kept its season alive by rallying from a three-point deficit with three minutes left in the fourth quarter for a win over the Chicago Bulls in the East’s second play-in game on April 14 to clinch the No. 8 playoff seed.

▪ Herro broke his right hand in the opening game of the Heat’s playoff run on April 16 and underwent surgery on his shooting hand on April 21. He logged just 19 minutes in Game 1 of the Heat’s first-round series against the Milwaukee Bucks before sustaining the injury, and he hasn’t played since.

▪ The Heat shocked the NBA world by winning its best-of-7 first-round series against the top-seeded Bucks 4-1 to become only the sixth No. 8 seed in league history to eliminate a No. 1 seed in the first round of the playoffs.

▪ The Heat then moved on to eliminate the fifth-seeded New York Knicks 4-2 in the second round to become just the second No. 8 seed in NBA history to advance to the conference finals.

“I feel like I have a great opportunity to prove myself and our team,” Herro said last month before this all transpired. “We all are in a position where obviously, no matter our seed, people kind of look down upon us and don’t look at us like a real team that can contend. But we feel different. I feel like without locker room and myself and everybody individually and then our team, we all want to prove to people that we are who we think we are.”

Unfortunately for Herro, he has watched the Heat’s historic playoff run from the bench as he continues to recover from surgery on his fractured right hand.

Herro, 23, took another step toward an eventual return this week. He was cleared to resume non-contact basketball work on Tuesday but there’s still no timetable for his return.

“There’s no timetable,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra reiterated Tuesday when asked about Herro’s status. “But he does have the brace off and he’s able to do ball handling and some shooting.”

While Herro predicted the Heat’s playoff success, he also expected to be a big part of it.

Herro closed the regular season as the Heat’s third-leading scorer with 20.1 points per game on 43.9 percent shooting from the field and 37.8 percent shooting on threes. Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler were the only Heat players who averaged more points than Herro this regular season.

But all season, Herro was looking forward to elevating his game in the playoffs after consecutive underwhelming postseasons. He averaged 12.6 points per game on 40.9 percent shooting from the field and 22.9 percent shooting from three-point range in last year’s playoffs, and averaged 9.3 points per game on 31.6 percent shooting from the field and 31.6 percent shooting from three-point range in the 2021 playoffs.

“I feel like the last two playoffs have set me up for this year’s playoffs,” Herro said last month before breaking his hand in the first game of the Heat’s playoff run. “It was just a learning experience. I’m not going to dwell on our last two playoffs. I’m trying to move forward, take those experiences and learn from them and put in a better effort this year.”

So far, Herro hasn’t gotten that opportunity because the hand injury has limited him to just 19 minutes during this year’s playoffs. Herro’s four-year, $130 million extension that he signed with the Heat in October begins next season.

“I want to just be able to take another jump in my career,” Herro said ahead of the playoffs. “Next year is a big year for me. Obviously, I want to be an All-Star and I think these playoffs can kick-start me to having a good summer going into next season.”