Nothing 'has dented Republican resolve to create a firewall in the Senate': Eurasia Group


Todd Mariano, U.S. director of Eurasia Group North America, puts the odds of the House approving articles of impeachment against President Trump at 65% now that Speaker Nancy Pelosi has greenlighted the inquiry. But it won’t be a similar outcome in the Senate, where Mariano thinks impeachment has a slim 10% chance.

“The reason the odds are 65% instead of 99% is that we have a ways to go before the fact finding,” Mariano told Yahoo Finance’s The Final Round. “Clearly with Speaker Pelosi’s decision, the odds are on the side of the House passing articles of impeachment, but certainly nothing today ... has dented Republican resolve to create a firewall in the Senate to keep Trump in office.”

One event that could skew reactions, Mariano noted, is today’s testimony by Acting Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire’s to the House of Representative’s Financial Services Committee.

U.S. President Donald Trump addresses a news conference on the sidelines of the 74th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York City, New York, U.S., September 25, 2019. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

“What Democrats really need in order to build a public case that might change the odds in the Senate and raise those odds above 65% in the House is something more significant that I think what we saw in the transcript today. But this is likely to be an evidentiary process that will last a couple of months. What we might look for in Maguire’s testimony and the whistleblower complaint is how broad the base for the allegations against Trump are beyond this July phone call with Zelenski.”

On Tuesday, Pelosi announced that the House would initiate an impeachment inquiry against Trump, charging him with betraying his oath of office and the national security by seeking to enlist Volodymyr Zelenski, the president of Ukraine, for his personal and political gain.

Related:

Trump campaign raised $1 million in 3 hours after Pelosi impeachment announcement

One way Trump could send stocks soaring

How Trump's impeachment could harm markets

Marabia Smith is a producer for Yahoo Finance The Final Round.

Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

Follow Yahoo Finance on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Flipboard, SmartNews, LinkedIn, YouTube, and reddit.

AMS