Advertisement

By the numbers: What have we learned about the Jaguars as they enter final stretch?

The Jacksonville Jaguars are now in their final stretch of games with contests against the Houston Texans (Week 17) and the Tennessee Titans (Week 18) remaining.

Their 19-3 victory over the New York Jets last week on Thursday Night Football in cold and rainy weather was a game where many past Jaguars teams would have struggled.

This year's team didn't have much of an issue, winning a game they should have won given the circumstances surrounding the Jets' quarterback and their downward spiral through the latter part of the year.

Now, Jacksonville has to continue that momentum as they look to make a playoff push, something the team hasn't accomplished since the 2017 season.

More Jaguars coverage:

Replacing Smoot:Jaguars DL depth will be tested with Dawuane Smoot out for the season with torn Achilles

'We haven't done anything':Jaguars excited, not satisfied after dominating 19-3 win over Jets

Mr. Thursday Night:Jaguars end prime-time losing streak behind the steady hand of Doug Pederson

Jacksonville's rise to the top of the AFC South leaderboards hasn't been by accident.

While, yes, the team has had some help from the play of teams within their division, a 5-2 record after starting the year 2-6 can't be overlooked.

With that said, let's take a look at some of the numbers and find out how Jacksonville has gotten to where they are and what stands out about their performance this season since their five-game losing streak in the month of October.

3: Trevor Lawrence is catalyst for success

It's pretty obvious when discussing the Jaguars' success to include quarterback Trevor Lawrence. The second-year QB has taken the next step many were expecting him to take this year under head coach Doug Pederson.

But, taking a closer look at some of the numbers allows his success, and how it pertains to the team's success, to become much clearer.

According to rbsdm.com, a website that compiles data regarding the success rate of teams, their plays and specifically the expected points added (EPA) per play, the Jaguars currently rank ninth in total EPA per play with 0.056. The No. 1 team in the league is the Kansas City Chiefs at 0.177 EPA/play.

Note: EPA is a metric that gives the difference in expected points and how much it changed on a given play or drive. If a team starts a drive on the 50-yard line, they're expected to score about 2.5 points. If they score a field goal, adding three points, their EPA would be 0.5.

A first-and-10 play at a team's own 25-yard line has expected points of 1.06. If that play nets 15 yards, the expected points jump to 1.88, meaning an addition of 0.82 points has been added by that play.

For reference, Jacksonville ranked 28th in the league in offensive EPA/play at -0.079 in 2021.

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) walks off the field after an NFL football game against the New York Jets on Thursday, Dec. 22, 2022, in East Rutherford, N.J. (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)
Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) walks off the field after an NFL football game against the New York Jets on Thursday, Dec. 22, 2022, in East Rutherford, N.J. (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)

But, it's been Lawrence's contributions that have really added to that metric.

Jacksonville currently ranks seventh in EPA per dropback at 0.149. Their dropback "success rate" (percentage of plays with positive EPA) ranks fourth at 51.1 percent.

But, much of Lawrence's success has happened within the last seven games of the season, as documented by what Lawrence spoke about prior to the team's Week 15 matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. He's brought the dropback EPA/play to 0.224, ranking third in the league behind the Detroit Lions (0.115) and the Chiefs (0.135).

Among QBs with at least 160 dropbacks in the last eight weeks of the season, Lawrence ranks second in completion percentage at 69.7 percent, first in quarterback rating (108.2) and has thrown 14 touchdowns and one interception, while rushing for two touchdowns.

He's thrown 1,909 yards during that span, which is more than Bills QB Josh Allen. He's completed a higher percentage of passes than Mahomes, Allen and Burrow during that span as well.

Not often thought about, Lawrence currently has five rushing touchdowns this year, which is tied for the franchise record in rushing touchdowns by a Jaguars QB (David Garrard, 2010). He is tied for fourth in the league with Daniel Jones and Burrow.

84 percent: Jaguars more efficient in goal-to-go situations

The Jaguars have scored touchdowns on 11-of-13 (84.6 percent) of its goal-to-go situations over the past seven games compared to 11-of-17 (64.7 percent) of its goal-to-go situations over the first eight games of the year.

The team ranks 14th this season in goal-to-go situations at 73.33 percent, a boost thanks to their efficiency over the last seven games of the season.

In the red zone, Jacksonville ranks 15th in the league at 53.70 percent. They haven't been shut out in the red zone since going 0-for-3 against the Houston Texans in Week 5, unable to score touchdowns in those opportunities.

Jacksonville's efficiency in both of those metrics has paid dividends for the team in coming back from games and maintaining leads. For reference, on Oct. 31 this year, Jacksonville ranked 24th in the league in red-zone percentage at 50 percent.

24: Jaguars rank fourth in takeaways

Jacksonville has been an opportunistic team since the start of the year. They currently are tied for fourth in the league with 24 takeaways.

During the first eight games of the season, Jacksonville forced seven fumbles but recovered just two of them. Over the last seven games of the year, they've forced 13 fumbles, recovering nine.

Jacksonville Jaguars safety Rayshawn Jenkins (2) runs into the end zone with teammates linebacker Josh Allen (41) and linebacker Devin Lloyd (33) after Jenkins intercepted a pass intended for Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Noah Brown (85) and runs in for a game-winning touchdown in overtime. The Jacksonville Jaguars hosted the Dallas Cowboys at TIAA Bank Field Sunday, December 18, 2022. The Jaguars trailed 21 to 7 at the half but came back to win 40 to 34 in overtime. [Bob Self/Florida Times-Union]

Although the team's interception numbers are down (eight to five) over those two periods, the team has been more opportunistic, making plays that they haven't in the past.

The biggest turnover of the season thus far came during the team's overtime win against the Dallas Cowboys when safety Rayshawn Jenkins took an interception back for a touchdown, sealing the win for Jacksonville.

723: Evan Engram playing at a high level

One of the key contributors during the team's 5-2 run has been tight end Evan Engram. Since Week 9, Engram ranks fourth in receiving yards for tight ends with 393. He has 723 receiving yards this season — a career-high — which ranks fourth among tight ends ahead of Georgia Kittle at 713 receiving yards.

Engram's contributions on a one-year deal in Jacksonville certainly warrant a contract extension, something receiver Zay Jones said while Engram was holding court in Jacksonville's locker room on Monday.

162: Foye Oluokun leads league in tackles − again

The most overlooked player contributing for the Jaguars this season has been linebacker Foye Oluokun, who leads the league in tackles with 162 total tackles, along with solo tackles with 115. Among off-ball linebackers, Oluokun ranks fourth in tackles for loss with 11.

Oluokun led the league in tackles last year with the Atlanta Falcons with 192 combined tackles. This year, he likely will lead the league in solo tackles, too.

Jacksonville Jaguars linebacker Foyesade Oluokun (23) reacts to his third down stop as teammate linebacker Devin Lloyd (33) looks on during the second quarter of a regular season NFL football matchup Sunday, Dec. 18, 2022 at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]
Jacksonville Jaguars linebacker Foyesade Oluokun (23) reacts to his third down stop as teammate linebacker Devin Lloyd (33) looks on during the second quarter of a regular season NFL football matchup Sunday, Dec. 18, 2022 at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]

The fifth-year LB ranks first on the team with three first fumbles and has been one of the most consistent players Jacksonville has, a force in the middle of its defense.

"He's meant a lot to that defense," Pederson said on Friday last week when asked about Oluokun. "He's the signal caller, he gets the guys lined up. He's a good football player. He is a great person. Just one of the leaders that I lean on with that defense to get those guys to play."

Demetrius Harvey is the Jacksonville Jaguars reporter for the Florida Times-Union. You can follow him on Twitter at @Demetrius82.

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Breaking down the numbers behind the Jaguars' late-season success