NWS annual Charlotte winter weather forecast touches on drought predictions

Joe Marusak
·2 min read

Concord-managed Lake Fisher, which temporarily closed to the public due to drought, may be a harbinger for neighboring Mecklenburg and other counties this winter, government forecasters say.

In its U.S. Winter Outlook report last week, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said Mecklenburg and surrounding counties could see dry conditions through January, during which a drought could develop.

Much of eastern North Carolina could see similarly dry conditions, but not the North Carolina foothills and mountains, according to the report.

The Climate Prediction Center also calls for warmer than normal temperatures for Charlotte and the rest of the state, but didn’t provide additional details.

Charlotte averages monthly highs of 72 degrees in October, 62 in November, 53 in December, 51 in January and 55 in February, according to US Climate Data.com.

Lake Fisher, a Concord municipal drinking water source, was just over 6 feet below normal levels last week, The Charlotte Observer previously reported.

Is the Charlotte region in for voluntary or mandatory water-conservation measures this winter? Not likely, meteorologist Justin Lane of the NWS office in Greer, S.C., told the Charlotte Observer on Saturday.

The Climate Prediction Center targeted the same counties already classified on the U.S. Drought Monitor index this month as abnormally dry, Lane said. That’s the lowest of five drought-intensity stages.

According to the updated Drought Monitor map on Thursday, Mecklenburg, Cabarrus Gaston, Lincoln, Catawba, half of Iredell and the western half of Union are abnormally dry.

All of Cabarrus, Mecklenburg, Gaston and Lincoln counties are classified as abnormally dry as of Oct. 14 by the U.S. Drought Monitor map. The map is updated every Thursday. Half of Union and Iredell counties also are abnormally dry, according to the map. “Abnormally dry” is the lowest of five drought-intensity levels.
All of Cabarrus, Mecklenburg, Gaston and Lincoln counties are classified as abnormally dry as of Oct. 14 by the U.S. Drought Monitor map. The map is updated every Thursday. Half of Union and Iredell counties also are abnormally dry, according to the map. “Abnormally dry” is the lowest of five drought-intensity levels.

The region, however, has been a only a couple of inches below normal rainfall in recent months — no cause for alarm, Lane said.

“Seasonally, we’re below normal, but only slightly below normal,” he said. “We maybe could see drought conditions in winter, but that’s still up in the air.”

Charlotte weather this week

Showers are in Charlotte’s immediate forecast.

A cold front moving through the area on Monday could also produce thunderstorms, according to an NWS hazardous weather outlook bulletin on Saturday.

“A few of these thunderstorms may become strong or even severe,” forecasters said in the alert.

While Tuesday and Wednesday can expect sun, Thursday could see another round of showers, according to the NWS forecast on Saturday night.