NY No Longer On Track To Contain Coronavirus, Study Shows
NEW YORK CITY — New York is no longer on track to contain the coronavirus as infection numbers surge to record new highs across the country.
Less than two weeks ago, the state was one of only three in the nation that looked likely to get the virus under control as it went from being the world's COVID-19 epicenter to having only a handful of daily diagnoses, according to a group of epidemiologists tracking the outbreak.
But the group, Covid Act Now, has reassigned New York to a medium-risk level and described the disease's spread in the state as "slow and controlled" — which is still better than most of the nation.
"COVID in New York is spreading in a slow and controlled fashion, and New York’s COVID preparedness meets international standards," the group said.
"If this trend continues, New York may eventually achieve herd immunity, though this may take years."
Now, only Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Vermont are on track to contain the disease. The group bases its findings on contact tracing, hospital capacity, testing and daily case and death numbers.
Across America, daily cases of the coronavirus are at the highest rate they've been, topping 50,000 new infections on Wednesday. Many states are scrambling to roll back reopenings.
In New York City, phase three of reopening is expected to start Monday, though a plan to include indoor dining in that was scrapped as the national resurgence of the virus continued. New York has mandated travelers coming from 16 states to quarantine.
Gov. Andrew Cuomo warned Wednesday that coronavirus "storm clouds" were gathering over New York City as compliance over safety measures was slipping.
This is what Covid Act Now wrote about New York:
Contact tracing: "Per best available data, New York has 9,600 contact tracers. With an average of 624 new daily cases, we estimate New York needs 3,120 contact tracing staff to trace all new cases in 48 hours, before too many other people are infected. This means that New York is likely able to trace 100% of new COVID infections in 48 hours. When this level of tracing is coupled with widely available testing, COVID can be contained without resorting to lockdowns."
Infection rate: "On average, each person in New York with COVID is infecting 0.95 other people. Because this number is around 1.0, it means that COVID continues to spread, but in a slow and controlled fashion."
ICU headroom used: "New York has about 4,121 ICU beds. Based on best available data, we estimate that 42% (1,730) are currently occupied by non-COVID patients. With 2,391 ICU beds remaining, we estimate 217 are needed by COVID cases, or 9% of available beds. This suggests there is likely enough capacity to absorb a wave of new COVID infections."
Positive test rate: "A low percentage (1.1%) of COVID tests were positive, which suggests enough widespread, aggressive testing in New York to detect most new cases. Identifying and isolating new cases can help contain COVID without resorting to lockdowns."
This article originally appeared on the New York City Patch
