The Observer: After Trump win in NH, be careful what you wish for

The Lion and the Shepherd, like most of Aesop’s fables, has a moral. It is this: “We are often not so eager for what we seek after we have found it.”

In other words, be careful what you wish for.

Wise words from antiquity with a message as modern as today. I’ve been thinking about this fable in connection with Donald Trump’s third presidential campaign.

Until recently, I had not given serious consideration to Trump Two.

Given:

1.) The general mayhem of Trump One (and especially the way it blew up on January 6, 2021).

2.) The ninety-one civil and criminal charges against him in courtrooms, from New York to Florida and Washington to Georgia.

3.) The questions raised about his age (and recently his mental competency).

I saw no reason to take his candidacy all that seriously. “Ain’t going to happen,” I thought… but I’ve changed my mind. It could happen.

Trump won the Iowa caucus with 51% of the vote and thinned the competition. I take comfort in the fact that in the caucus, Trump received just 56,260 votes. For perspective, there are about 2.4 million adults of voting age in the state. A week later, Trump won the New Hampshire primary, puncturing the balloon of the only serious candidate remaining between him and the Republican nomination. He’s got momentum.

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One news source I trust is taking the possibility of a Trump victory seriously.

In the last six months, The Economist magazine has devoted at least two covers and numerous columns to what it has called “the alarming plans for Trump’s second term” (July 15-21, 2023). So, ain’t going to happen? Make that a maybe.

In contrast to Trump One, which The Economist characterized as a time of “chaos and resentment,” members of his inner circle have been working to assure that “Trump Two will be disciplined and focused on getting things done.”

Ah, but what things? The candidate’s stump speeches have made clear his main objectives. The implications of his policy priorities are worth considering. Let me highlight a half dozen of his most significant issues.

Immigration: This will be implemented by finishing his border wall, deporting at-risk immigrants, and ending automatic citizenship for people born here. Were this to happen, we can expect a contraction of the labor pool. Some jobs will be harder to fill, so wages will have to rise to attract domestic laborers. The effect of this will be a return of inflation. Business sales will fall, provoking a recession that the Federal Reserve, remarkably, has succeeded in avoiding.

Tax cuts will be extended or made permanent: This will increase business profits but won’t offset the recessionary pressures from labor shortages. It may make some executives happy, but it also will result in bigger deficits. Unfunded deficits will lead to higher borrowing costs and reductions in service.

Tariffs on foreign goods: The effect of this could well be a trade war in which U.S. goods also become more expensive, further undermining the FED’s stunning “soft landing” strategy. The Economist’s most recent cover warns boldly: “HE’S WINNING: BUSINESS BEWARE” (January 20-26, 2024).

Environmental deregulation: When he speaks about “ending the war on fossil fuels,” Trump is really talking about weakening environmental regulations with all that this implies, such as abandoning the fight against climate change. The effects of that are increasingly obvious and dangerous.

Leaving NATO: It is getting difficult to keep track of the hot spots that threaten the NATO alliance: Ukraine, Israel, Iran, Yemen, China, and North Korea to name some of the biggest worries. Walking away from NATO means making the world less safe for just about every country, including the United States.

The “Deep State”: Doing away with tens of thousands of top-echelon civil service positions is a game changer. To disestablish the federal bureaucracy — making way for Trump loyalists who may not have the skills or experience to run the federal programs — will bring parts of the government to a virtual halt. Think of the implications for Social Security, Medicare, and scores of other programs.

If Trump were to win the White House and with sufficiently long coattails, Republicans could take control of the Senate while also increasing the party’s margin in the House, thereby creating a unitary government and making his second term ripe for the country’s first imperial presidency.

Yes, indeed, be very careful what you wish for.

Ron McAllister is a sociologist and writer who lives in York.

This article originally appeared on Portsmouth Herald: The Observer: After Trump win in NH, be careful what you wish for