Odds up for 2 Atlantic systems as hurricane center also eyes potential Gulf of Mexico storm
The National Hurricane Center increased the odds for two systems in the Atlantic to form into the season’s next tropical depression or storm while also predicting a system with potential will form in the Gulf of Mexico.
In its 8 a.m. tropical outlook, the NHC said one system in the far eastern Atlantic and one in the central Atlantic now have a moderate chance to develop, both up from Tuesday’s forecasts. If either were to spin up into a named storm, they could become Tropical Storm Emily and potentially Tropical Storm Franklin.
The system with the most potential is an elongated trough of low pressure with disorganized showers and thunderstorms about 750 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.
“Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the next several days while moving toward the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph across the central tropical Atlantic,” forecasters said.
The NHC gives it a 30% chance to form in the next two days and 50% in the next seven.
Farther east is a tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa on Tuesday, also with a large area of disorganized convection.
“This system is forecast to move toward the west-northwest at about 15 mph, with an area of low pressure expected to form in a day or so near or just to the west of the Cape Verde Islands,” forecasters said. “Further development of the low is possible, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend before environmental conditions become unfavorable early next week.”
The NHC gives it a 20% chance to form in the next two days, and 40% in the next seven.
Late Tuesday, the NHC also began predicting chances for a system it expects to form over the Gulf of Mexico.
A broad area of low pressure could develop in the central or western Gulf by the start of next week, forecasters said.
“Some slow development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves westward and approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of next week,” the NHC said.
It gives it a 20% chance to form in the next seven days.
The Atlantic systems have warmer waters that could spur development, but face competition with increased Saharan dust that has continued to blow off the coast of Africa and spread out westward along the storms’ paths within the last week. That has contributed to a lull in recent storm formation. The NHC has not tracked a named storm in the Atlantic basin since July 24 when Hurricane Don disipated.
Still, the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which has so far seen four named storms including a lone Category 1 hurricane, is predicted to be an above-normal season, according to updated forecasts last week from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30, but the height of the season runs from mid-August to mid-October when waters are the warmest providing fuel for tropical formation.
The NHC’s latest forecast for the year shifted upward so it now predicts 14-21 named storms, of which 6-11 would grow to hurricane strength, and two to five of those becoming major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.
