Odds increase for tropical wave’s development into the next storm, hurricane center says

National Hurricane Center/National Hurricane Center/TNS
·2 min read

ORLANDO, Fla. — The odds of the next tropical storm emerging this week keep going up as the National Hurricane Center monitors two tropical waves in the east Atlantic.

First, a tropical wave about a thousand miles east of the Lesser Antilles is showing better organization Tuesday morning, and further development is looking possible, the NHC said in its 2 p.m. Eastern time update. The wave is producing showers and thunderstorms in a favorable environment for tropical maturity. The NHC predicts a tropical depression could form as the wave pushes west. Hurricane specialists gave the wave a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm in the next two days and 40% in the next five days.

Second, a tropical wave passed through the Cabo Verde Islands and diminished Tuesday, the NHC said. The wave is still producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Marginal development is possible as the wave moves west but the NHC reduced its odds of growing to a 10% chance over the next five days. Previously, forecasters gave it s 20% chance.

If both were to develop into a tropical storm, the first would be named Fiona and the latter would receive the moniker, Gaston.

Last week, hurricanes Danielle and Earl fizzled after becoming the first two hurricanes of the season and the latter of which teased major hurricane status before transitioning into an extratropical storm. Neither storm made landfall. Although, Danielle did provide Bermuda with tropical storm-force winds and rain.

Currently, hurricane season is in the middle of the most active time for tropical activity, between mid-August and mid-October. Prior to the season, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters predicted 2022 to be yet another above-average season in storm production coming off the heels of two record-breaking seasons for named storms. The NOAA doubled down on its forecast at the start of August. However, so far the season has been off to a sluggish pace in comparison to past seasons.

Typically, the eighth named storm emerges by or before Sept. 9 and the third hurricane by Sept. 7, but the season has thus produced five named storms and two hurricanes. The NOAA’s prediction call for a total of 14-21 named storms by the end of the season, Nov. 30.

Over the weekend, the season crossed the yearly threshold of hurricane season’s “statistical peak,” Sept. 10, in which specialists observe the most active time in the Atlantic for tropical storm activity. Just prior to the peak, forecasters had a full-looking Atlantic basin with two different tropical waves and two hurricanes. The activity was a stark comparison to July and August, both of which experienced very little stirrings.

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