Updated outlook for potential white Christmas in NE Ohio: Chances increasing

*The above video shows a heavy snow squall in Rocky River on November 28*

CLEVELAND (WJW) — Mother Nature seems to be fooling with the Northeast Ohio calendar. Late November was snowy and bitterly cold, but leading into this weekend and we’re having sunshine with highs in the mid-50s.

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So, what does the long-range forecast foretell for the chances of a white Christmas?

“We’ll see another Panhandle Hook storm system just before Christmas, but it will be rain to start,” said Fox 8 Meteorologist Alexis Walters. “However, on the backside of the storm, colder air will move in and we’ll get snow, how much is not easy to pinpoint this far out.”

So, you’re saying there’s a chance Alexis?

“The odds are increasing,” she said.

Fox 8 meteorologist Scott Sabol said no artic blasts for the next couple of weeks, but with that storm system, changes seem to suggest that we will have an active storm track Christmas week around the new year.

*For a fascinating look into the potential for an Arctic cold air outbreak or Polar Vortex in late December you can read Fox 8 meteorologist Scott Sabol’s insight at the bottom of this page*

WHITE CHRISTMAS?

Sabol said “Historically, the odds of snow on the ground on Christmas Day for Cleveland are 30%”

But this year, he says our chances are still increasing.

“But the probability of sustainable cold seems to be shifting more into the first couple weeks of January versus the end of December,” Sabol said.

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SNOWBELT WEST?

The weather front that moved through along with bursts of heavy Lake Effect snow squalls on Nov. 28 put down impressive snowfall rates, and not just in the snowbelt. Sabol said an intense burst of snow put down 2 inches of snow in only 30 minutes in some westside communities on that date.

Take a look at these doorbell camera images below from Rocky River on Tuesday, Nov. 28 at 5:53 a.m. There was no snow, but only 30 minutes later…two inches of snow had fallen fast!

Check out these two images below that show three inches of snow fell in just 1 hour and 26 minutes!

REMEMBER THE WEATHER LAST CHRISTMAS WEEKEND?

If you’re wishing for a white Christmas, keep in mind last year, when snow and blowing snow combined with wind chills of -35 degrees overnight into early Christmas Eve morning which closed many businesses.

So, maybe one of those Hallmark Christmas movie snows would be just right, as Fox 8’s Andre Bernier puts it “a cosmetic coating.”

Polar Vortex is not ruled out for late December into early January

Fox 8 meteorologist Scott Sabol’s interesting take on the chances of a Polar Vortex taking aim at NE Ohio by late December. You can read his explanation below.

“The polar vortex shows signs of weakening. Why would this happen?  First El Nino is strengthening.  This has influenced the southern storm track/rain events over the last 2-3 weeks. This will continue as El Nino continues.”

“This is where it gets tricky.  There is a link to high pressure over north & central Siberia, its interaction with the Himalayan Mountains and the strength/position of the Polar Vortex. These interactions change the polar jet stream which can influence what we call Stratospheric Warming which occurs at the top of the atmosphere near the North Pole. This warming by itself doesn’t always mean colder temps in the eastern US.  This warming at the top can lead to colder conditions at the surface. If the weaker Polar Vortex occurs when high pressure develops near Greenland and becomes persistent, conditions are more conducive for colder than normal temps across portions of North America.  Add the already active storm track and the late Dec/early January period could get pretty interesting.  Not a slam dunk but DEFINITELY something I am monitoring.”

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