Off to Grandma's? Here's everything to know about end-of-2023 travel in Tennessee, beyond
More cars than ever will likely be on the roads this holiday season.
The American Automobile Association expects that almost 104 million people will drive to their holiday destinations this year in the second highest forecast on record after 2019, when 108 million drivers loaded up for the holidays, according to a press release.
Millions more are projected to travel by air or use alternative travel modes like buses, trains and cruises between Dec. 23-Jan. 1, resulting in the second highest year-end travel forecasted in more than 20 years, the release said.
“This year-end holiday forecast, with an additional 2.5 million travelers compared to last year, mirrors what AAA Travel has been observing throughout 2023,” the agency's Senior Vice President Paula Twidale said in the release.
“More Americans are investing in travel, despite the cost, to make memories with loved ones and experience new places.”
More: Should you start your car and warm it up in cold weather? Here's why you don't.
With so many people traveling for the holidays, competing for space on the road or a seat on the plane may be worse on certain days and times. Bad weather may even compound the end of year increase in traffic congestion.
Want to know the projected most congested travel days? It's Dec. 23, 28 and 30, according to data by INRIX, which also suggests hitting the road before lunch or after 7 p.m. to avoid the heaviest congestion periods.
“Nationwide, drivers could see travel times up to 20% longer this holiday season. In major metros, especially in Denver, Minneapolis, and Washington, DC, drivers could experience nearly double the typical delays,” INRIX Transportation Analyst Bob Pishue said in a release.
“Avoid peak commuting hours and use traffic apps, local DOT notifications and 511 services to minimize holiday travel traffic frustrations.”
Knowing these things beforehand may save you time and money. And while we can't exactly tell you what the weather will do, especially in Middle Tennessee, here's what we know so far:
Outlook good…
Though weather forecasts beyond the 7-day outlook aren’t included in official National Weather Service Nashville reports, looking ahead can help prepare for trending weather events.
Temperatures will likely be above normal through Christmas Day, according to the 6–10-day forecast, Nashville NWS Meteorologist John Cohen said. The 8-14-day forecast shows above normal temperatures heading into New Year’s Day celebrations as well.
Rainfall across the 6–10-day forecast shows near normal amounts, while the 8-14-day forecast shows above normal amounts, Cohen added.
“So that tells me above normal temperatures, maybe a little more shower activity,” he said.
“I think it’s safe to say lows in the 30s, highs in the 50s, somewhere around there, with chances of showers here and there. We’re pretty much not going to have any artic outbreaks, the odds of that are very low."
More: Does it snow in Nashville? Yes, here's what past weather events tell us to expect
Tennessee’s predicted total snowfall and freezing rain amounts for the holidays are at zero, Cohen said, further supporting the warmer and wetter than normal weather expected through the end of the year.
But the holidays haven’t always been so warm in Nashville.
Nashville recorded its greatest one-day snowfall measuring 6 inches on Dec. 18, 1916, according to the National Weather Service’s calendar of significant weather events in Middle Tennessee.
Temperatures dropped to a staggering -2 degrees in Nashville on Dec. 21, 1989.
And, on Dec. 25, 1969, Nashville recorded its greatest Christmas Day snowfall, measuring 2.7 inches.
17,186 crashes reported in December 2022
Crashes happen year-round, though they can become more frequent when more people are on the road or road conditions worsen, officials say.
Winter weather events pose an increased risk to travelers with fog, light freezing rain, black ice, snow and other inclement conditions.
“Most of the accidents that occur are when you’re driving, that’s when the real danger comes in each and every winter in Middle Tennessee,” Cohen said.
“And the most important thing I can tell people is just because the road isn’t white and it’s not covered with snow or sleet, that could be an even worse situation because if it’s icy you’re not going to see it. You won’t see the ice and it’s extremely dangerous.”
More: TVA's historic failure was a year ago. Is Nashville more prepared for extreme weather now?
Last year, more people in Dickson, Rutherford, Sumner and Williamson Counties crashed in December than any other month, according to Tennessee Traffic Crashes in 2022.
In Davidson County, October beat out December for the most crashes by 49.
Here's what the actual crash numbers looked like for Middle Tennessee counties in December 2022:
Cheatham: 72
Davidson: 2,156
Dickson: 149
Montgomery: 537
Robertson: 210
Rutherford: 1,017
Sumner: 342
Williamson: 481
Wilson: 363
December saw the most crashes statewide last year, with 17,186 incidents reported.
“I think the best thing for people to remember is if it’s cold out and it’s wet out and the roads appear to be okay, they may not be. Watch for those patches of ice in situations like that because that really causes a problem,” Cohen said.
“Anytime we have precipitation in the wintertime (people) really need to pay attention… we can even have things like freezing fog and if it’s dense enough that can cause problems and it only takes a really thin coating to create all kinds of accidents.”
How to winterize your ride
After almost 30 years with the National Weather Service and 22 winters in Nashville, Cohen had some advice for holiday commuters.
“In the past, we have had winter situations develop where, sometimes, people get stranded on the highway… I think (it) would be really good for people to just keep some extra winter clothing in their car, just in case, because you never know,” he said.
More: Here's how to prepare for severe weather in Tennessee: Safe rooms, weather alerts, supplies
Before getting behind the wheel, prepare for the cold with the National Weather Service’s safety tips and address any existing issues with a pre-season checkup.
Worn tires and brakes, broken taillights and low batteries should be remedied as soon as possible.
Check the forecast and adjust travel schedules to avoid being outside during the coldest part of the day, usually in the early morning. Dress warmly, even if you don’t plan on being outside long.
Never warm up a vehicle in an enclosed area, due to the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning.
Replace fluids early and often, such as antifreeze, windshield wiper fluid and gas. Half a tank of gas should always be kept in the vehicle while on the road in case you become stranded in extreme cold.
If you become stranded, a winter car kit can help you stay warm and possibly get back on the road.
National Weather Service officials recommend having the following items accessible in the car during the winter:
Jumper cables and warning devices like flares or triangles
Flashlights and extra batteries
First-aid kit including essential medications
Baby and special needs gear like diapers and special formula or food
Non-perishable food items like dry cereal, nuts and energy bars
One gallon of water per person each day for three days
Basic toolkit including pliers, a wrench and screwdriver
Battery or hand cranked radio
Cat litter, sand or traction mats for tire traction in the snow and ice
Snow shovel
Ice scraper
Extra clothing for each person such as gloves, hats, sturdy boots, jackets and warmer items
Hands, feet and body warmers
Blankets or sleeping bags
Portable and car cell phone chargers
Katie Nixon can be reached at knixon@gannett.com.
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Here's what you should know about holiday travel in Tennessee, beyond
