How often does the New Hampshire primary winner go on to become their party’s nominee?

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(KXAN) — Thousands of voters are casting ballots in Granite State today as part of the first-in-the-nation primary in New Hampshire.

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is hoping to beat the odds — and the polls — and pull off an upset victory over former President Donald Trump. In the Republican primary, 22 delegates are up for grabs tonight.

On the Democratic side, incumbent frontrunner President Joe Biden won’t appear on the ballot, but supporters are planning a write-in campaign instead. No delegates will be awarded based on tonight’s results due to sanctions imposed by the Democratic National Committee.

DELEGATE TRACKER: Results of the 2024 Republican and Democratic primaries

Either way, how indicative are the New Hampshire results when it comes to determining the eventual party nominees? For Republicans, the answer is very indicative, at least over the last few election cycles.

Since 2004, every Republican to win New Hampshire has gone on to win the Republican nomination, including John McCain, Mitt Romney and Donald Trump’s initial campaigns, as well as Trump and George W. Bush’s reelection campaigns.

Democratic results in New Hampshire are less representative when it comes to picking the eventual nominee. Primary winners Al Gore and John Kerry did go on to be the Democratic nominees in 2000 and 2004, but the state’s winner didn’t line up with the nominee in 2008, 2016 or 2020.

New Hampshirites voted for Bernie Sanders, from neighboring Vermont, in both of the two most recent presidential primary campaigns, in which Hillary Clinton and Biden went on to become the party nominees.

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This year, more attention is focused on the Republican race, as incumbent Biden remains the clear favorite to win the Democratic nomination again. Despite Trump’s lead in the polls, Haley is hoping for a close race to gain momentum ahead of the South Carolina primary in her home state on Feb. 24.

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