Oh good, Lightning look like underdogs vs. Leafs again in NHL playoffs
BRANDON — Truth be told, they should have beaten the Lightning last year. They were the higher seed, they were favored by oddsmakers, they were 10 minutes away from clinching the first-round series in Game 6.
And it didn’t happen for the Maple Leafs.
Now, the teams are two weeks away from a first-round showdown. Again. Toronto is the higher seed. Again. The Leafs are favored by Las Vegas. Again. In the coming days, they’ll say all the right things about getting over the playoff hump. Again.
So, tell me, do you fear the Leafs yet?
In a way, it’s a confounding question. Toronto has the second-most wins in the NHL in the regular season since 2016-17. And during that span, they are tied for 14th in postseason wins.
So either the Lightning are fortunate to get the NHL’s most infamous underachievers or they’re tempting fate against a team that is too good to continue losing in the first round every season.
“It’s pretty simple,” Lightning forward Corey Perry said. “One team is going home early, and it’s going to be a very good team.”
For the Leafs, there is no hiding from their postseason record. And they’ve spent the past 12 months making assorted moves to correct all the shortcomings that cost them against the Lightning last year.
They revamped their goaltending by signing Ilya Samsonov and dealing for Matt Murray last summer. And they went all-in at the trade deadline by acquiring 2019 Conn Smythe winner Ryan O’Reilly, Noel Acciari, Jake McCabe, Sam Lafferty and Luke Schenn to give them more depth and grit for the postseason.
It’s almost as if Toronto was following the Tampa Bay blueprint from a few years ago, when the Lightning went from a flash-and-dash type of lineup to a more grind-it-out group with more emphasis on defense and doing the dirty work in front of the net and in the corners.
If you’re inclined to believe the Lightning won in the first round last season because they were more playoff tested, that equation gets a little tougher to envision this month. Not only did Toronto add a bunch of hard-edged players, but the Lightning lost Ryan McDonagh, Ondrej Palat and Jan Rutta in the offseason. And that was after going to the final seconds of Game 7 and being outscored by Toronto 24-23 the last time around.
Which might explain why coach Jon Cooper gathered his players during Tuesday’s practice at the TGH Ice Plex and made sure they were not in a celebratory mood after clinching their first-round date against the Leafs.
After an uneven two months of hockey, the Lightning have finally rediscovered their defense-first formula that led to three consecutive Eastern Conference championships and two Stanley Cups, and Cooper does not want any backtracking.
“We’re playing some pretty good hockey right now, and just because we’ve punched our ticket, we can’t take our foot off the gas,” Cooper said. “What I mean by that, it’s all our habits we’re starting to build in, and it’s pushing us to where we are and where we want to be.”
The Lightning had similar problems in the regular season last year, and it took some time to find their groove in the playoffs. Toronto scored three or more goals in the first six games of the series before Tampa Bay won 2-1 in Game 7. The Lightning went on to hold the Panthers and Rangers to two goals or less in nine of their next 11 games.
“We shouldn’t be looking ahead to Toronto. Let’s look at us and make sure our game is in order and then go play Toronto,” Cooper said. “That’s kind of our goal here in the last five (regular-season) games.”
Maybe this series was inevitable with the talent on these teams and the way the NHL playoffs are structured. After all, Toronto and Tampa Bay have danced together for the better part of two years. In the regular season, in the postseason, in the aspirations of expectant marketplaces.
The Maple Leafs have been better than the Lightning in the Atlantic Division, though the margin is slim. Toronto has won 99 games the past two regular seasons and finished in second place twice. Tampa Bay has won 96 games and finished in third place twice.
Even in the first 10 days of the 2022 postseason, the Maple Leafs were slightly better. They won three of the first five games and had a 3-2 lead halfway through the third period of Game 6.
And yet, for all that, the difference in expectations, in reputations and in Stanley Cup lore was a 2-1 Tampa Bay victory in Game 7.
In two weeks, they’ll meet again.
Tell me, how do you feel?
John Romano can be reached at jromano@tampabay.com. Follow @romano_tbtimes.
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