How Ohio Issue 1's defeat could shake up Frank LaRose's 2024 U.S. Senate campaign

Secretary of State Frank LaRose put all of his chips on Issue 1.

He traveled Ohio to advocate for the measure, even as some of argued he should focus more on his day job running the election. He went toe-to-toe with opponents during forums and sat through jeers from audience members who didn't like what they heard. In many ways, LaRose was the face of the pro-Issue 1 campaign.

But his bet didn't pay off. Voters rejected the proposal to make it harder to amend Ohio's Constitution last week, 57-43%, dealing a blow to LaRose and other Republican leaders who backed it.

Now, LaRose is barreling into the 2024 U.S. Senate primary with the cloud of Issue 1 above his head. His critics have eagerly made him a scapegoat as Republicans search for answers about the Aug. 8 election outcome. One conservative radio host blasted Ohio Republicans for a "lack of a cogent strategy" and said Cleveland businessman Bernie Moreno is the party's best option to take on Democratic U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown next year.

Some political observers say this could hurt LaRose as he tries to win over GOP primary voters. Others aren't so sure, saying voters have short memories and will be more preoccupied by this November's election on abortion rights.

As for LaRose? He's convinced Issue 1 will only help him, even if it failed in the end.

“They saw me as the guy who would go into the lion’s den and fight for the things that mattered to them, and that’s going to accrue for my benefit," he said in an interview.

Why some Republicans blame LaRose for Issue 1

Issue 1 was already creating rifts in the Senate primary before last week's election.

LaRose publicly pressured Moreno and state Sen. Matt Dolan, R-Chagrin Falls, to use some of their personal wealth to prop up the pro-Issue 1 campaign. He said his opponents hadn't done enough, even though Moreno and Dolan spoke about Issue 1 at events throughout the summer. Moreno and Dolan, in response, suggested LaRose was taking his eye off the ball.

“There was definitely some preemptive buck passing and preemptive blame gaming going on because this thing was an underdog the whole time," said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia.

Unofficial results showed Issue 1 failing by 14 percentage points, and Kondik doesn't believe the actions of one individual could have salvaged it. But Kondik said it raised some questions about LaRose's political instincts, since he went to bat for something that faced an uphill battle from the onset.

"I think the governor’s got a pretty good political radar, and he stayed away from this thing," Kondik said.

LaRose's GOP dissenters blame him for something else entirely: Tying the August ballot question to abortion. At a Lincoln Day dinner in May, LaRose told a room of Republicans that Issue 1 was "100%" about blocking the abortion issue in November. He went on to mention other issues, such as minimum wage, but opponents of Issue 1 clipped his abortion comments for campaign ads.

“It was a terrible idea from the very start," said David Cohen, a political scientist at the University of Akron. "When Frank LaRose publicly connected this issue with the abortion issue, I think that really motivated and made crystal clear what the issue was about. It motivated women and men who support reproductive rights to get out there and vote.”

What Issue 1 outcome means for 2024

Not everyone agrees with that assessment − especially LaRose. He offered his own analysis for why Issue 1 failed, putting much of the blame on outside spending and media coverage. He also accused the business community of getting squeamish when abortion began to dominate the conversation.

The Ohio Chamber of Commerce endorsed Issue 1 but declined to weigh in on the abortion amendment because it's a social issue. Save Jobs Ohio, which is funded by the chamber, donated $150,000 to the official yes campaign.

"There has long been a coalition on the right that exists among social/cultural conservatives but also business and fiscal conservatives," LaRose said. "When that coalition holds, we can get good conservative policy done.”

Republican political strategist Mark Weaver said Issue 1's defeat is unlikely to hurt LaRose in the Senate race. If the abortion amendment passes in November, he said, GOP primary voters will be thinking more about that than August. Weaver also believes LaRose can boost his image by touting his fight for Issue 1 and his opposition to the abortion measure.

"Frank LaRose stepped up on behalf of conservatives and Republicans," Weaver said. "Bernie Moreno and Matt Dolan did so on a smaller fashion. To the extent that creates bragging rights for having done the right thing to August, LaRose has the lion’s share of the bragging rights."

Still, some Republicans say the Aug. 8 results raised a red flag about LaRose's ability to message on the campaign trail. And Cohen expects his opponents to continue making an issue of it as the Senate race heats up.

"The only thing that’s going to help him is time," Cohen said.

Haley BeMiller is a reporter for the USA TODAY Network Ohio Bureau, which serves the Columbus Dispatch, Cincinnati Enquirer, Akron Beacon Journal and 18 other affiliated news organizations across Ohio.

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This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: How Ohio Issue 1 could affect Frank LaRose's 2024 Senate bid