Ohio poll: U.S. Senate candidate not endorsed by Trump picked as frontrunner

COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) — Former President Donald Trump endorsed Bernie Moreno this week in the U.S. Senate race to unseat Democrat Sherrod Brown in 2024. But a poll taken earlier in the month found a different frontrunner.

The poll of the Republican primary for Ohio’s U.S. Senate seat showed Secretary of State Frank LaRose holding a 15% lead over his closest opponent, state Sen. Matt Dolan. However, this poll was taken before Moreno received Trump’s endorsement.

Whitehall school board mum on superintendent’s ouster

SurveyUSA interviewed 1,275 Ohioans from Dec. 8 to 12, based on a list that looked to exclude Democrats. Of those, 1,107 were registered voters, with 1,007 stating that they saw themselves as Republican or independent. The pool was weighted to census-driven targets for gender, age and education, and the survey was conducted on behalf of the Center for Election Science.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings, SurveyUSA is a reliable source of polls. The pollster received an A+ rating from the website, which said that it has called 89% of its 856 analyzed polls correctly.

The results showed LaRose leading the pack, with 33% of 573 likely voters favoring him. Dolan came in at a distant second, with 18% supporting the state senator. Bringing up the rear was Moreno with just 12%. An undecided block of voters was evident, with 35% saying they were unsure of who they would vote for. The question had a credibility interval, similar to the margin of error, of 4.6%.

LaRose also held the most broad support across the party of all the Republican candidates. When likely GOP voters were asked to choose as many of the candidates as they wish, LaRose received support in 52% of answers. Dolan again came in second, with 38% supporting the state senator. Moreno remained the third place candidate, with only 28% approving of the businessman. 18% said that they would vote for none of the primary candidates.

Overall, the poll showed that LaRose holds significant advantages, with double-digit leads among both men and women, among voters of all ages, of all income levels, and in most parts of the state. Dolan held favorable support among independent voters who said that they are certain to vote in the Republican primary, leading LaRose by one point. Moreno trailed LaRose in every demographic group, but leads Dolan for second place among voters who get their news from social media, voters in the Dayton area, the youngest voters, voters who have attended some college, and GOP primary voters who identify as LGBTQ+.

When Ohio ski resorts will open in 2023

As the year ended, personal financial disclosure documents showed a wide financial gap between the candidates.

The winner of the Republican primary will go on to face Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in the general election on November 5, 2024. In November, an Emerson College poll sponsored by Nexstar Media, the parent company of NBC4, showed that Brown had a slight edge over the Republican field, with Dolan matching up best against the senator.

For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to NBC4 WCMH-TV.