Ohio State football a big favorite over Northwestern, but weather likely to be a factor
With Ohio State a 38-point favorite Saturday at Northwestern, chances are small that the Wildcats pull an upset.
Northwestern (1-7) won its season opener in Ireland against Nebraska and hasn’t won since returning to North America.
Well, Mother Nature looks like it will intervene. The weather in Evanston, Illinois, calls for early rain and then strong winds gusting to more than 40 mph.
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No. 2 Ohio State’s passing game has been mostly unstoppable against even formidable defenses, and Northwestern’s is hardly that. The Wildcats rank 107th nationally in defensive pass efficiency. Their best hope might be that the wind turns C.J. Stroud’s passes into paper airplanes.
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“We’ve got to do a good job and adjust to the conditions,” Ohio State coach Ryan Day said. “I always say the biggest thing is that we just have to handle it better than our opponent, because they have to deal with it as well.
“If it's extreme, then we have to make adjustments. I don't know if it'll be extreme. Certainly, the forecast doesn't look very promising, so we're starting to talk about some of the ideas and thoughts in all three phases. That's why you have balance in game-planning because in November the weather is unpredictable in the Big Ten.”
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Day said the Buckeyes have practiced in windy conditions often lately. The Buckeyes (8-0) have both indoor and outdoor fields at the Woody Hayes Athletic Center, and they’ve been outside this week.
It might not be such a bad thing for Ohio State if the wind at Ryan Field limits the passing game. That would force the Buckeyes to rely on their ground game, which has had trouble getting untracked the past two weeks.
Ohio State gained only 66 yards against Iowa and 98 last week against Penn State, with 41 against the Nittany Lions coming on TreVeyon Henderson’s fourth-quarter go-ahead touchdown. In the Buckeyes’ first six games, they didn’t run for fewer than 168 in any game.
“With the weather like that (expected), running the ball is going to have to be a big thing for us,” tackle Paris Johnson Jr. said. “Our mindset is that we've done it in the past at a really high level. That's who we are, and we're going to have to show it again Saturday.”
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Day said Thursday he was looking forward to getting running back Miyan Williams back this week. Williams didn't return to the game last week after injuring his right hand and arm when he was tackled into a yard marker.
Tackle Dawand Jones did not seem overly concerned about the run game issues last week.
“A couple of missed blocks, a couple of missed plays,” he said. “Nothing crazy. You get frustrated. But once you see one break like we did (with Henderson's run), you get back to reality.”
Ohio State’s run-game issues against Penn State were a stark contrast to what Michigan did against the Nittany Lions two weeks earlier. The Wolverines ran for 418 yards in a 41-17 win. Clearly, Penn State devoted much attention to fixing their run defense woes.
Ohio State has beaten Northwestern nine straight times, last losing in 2004. Two years ago in the Big Ten championship, Northwestern threw a scare into Ohio State until the Buckeyes rode Trey Sermon’s 331-yard game to a 22-10 victory.
Northwestern rebounded to win the Citrus Bowl and was 3-3 at midseason last year. Since then, Pat Fitzgerald's Wildcats have lost 13 of 14 games.
They have had a myriad of issues this year. The Wildcats rank 120th in scoring offense (17.9 ppg), 94th in total defense (407.1 yards per game) and 126th in turnover differential (minus-9).
Not a recipe for success.
Northwestern does have some standouts. Left tackle Peter Skoronski is projected to be a first-round NFL draft pick. Running back Evan Hull is a threat as a runner and pass-catcher.
But the Wildcats don’t have much around them. That’s why it might take divine intervention – would 40 mph winds qualify? -- for Northwestern to pull off a monumental upset.
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This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Ohio State football game to be wet, windy vs. Northwestern
