Would Ohio State football make the College Football Playoff if it loses to Michigan?
Six weeks into the 2022 college football season, Ohio State football has been one of the most dominant programs in the country.
Coming into its off week at a perfect 6-0, the Buckeyes have the No. 2 total offense in the country, averaging 543..7 yards per game, along with the No. 7 total defense in college football, allowing 253.5 yards per game.
What does Ohio State's path to the College Football Playoff look like six weeks into the regular season? Here's a look at each scenario according to ESPN's College Football Playoff Predictor.
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What if Ohio State finishes the regular season undefeated?
According to the playoff predictor, Ohio State will more than likely be in the College Football Playoff.
If the Buckeyes win their 40th Big Ten Championship, they have more than a 99% chance of earning a Playoff bid with a 34% chance of winning the national championship.
Even if Ohio State finishes the season undefeated, but loses to the Big Ten West champion in the conference championship, the Buckeyes still have an 84% chance of making the Playoff and a 29% chance of winning a national championship.
What if Ohio State finishes the regular season with one loss?
According to the predictor, it depends on which team Ohio State loses to.
If Ohio State's one loss comes at Penn State Oct. 29, the Buckeyes have a 98% chance of making the Playoff if it wins a Big Ten Championship, a 65% chance of making the Playoff if it loses the Big Ten Championship and a 46% chance of making the Playoff if it doesn't play for a conference title.
Ohio State's chances if it loses on the road against Maryland Nov. 19 remain similar to the loss against Penn State, having a 98% chance for a Playoff bid if the Buckeyes win a Big Ten title, a 66% chance if the Buckeyes lose the Big Ten Championship and a 47% chance if Ohio State doesn't play for a conference championship.
If Ohio State loses its final home game against Michigan Nov. 26, it still has a 98% chance of going to the Playoff if the Buckeyes play for a Big Ten title and has a 66% chance if it loses against the Big Ten West champion, but holds only a 46% chance if they fail to make the conference championship game in Indianapolis.
What if Ohio State finishes the regular season with two losses?
According to the Playoff predictor, no matter who Ohio State would lose to, whether it's Penn State, Maryland or Michigan, if the Buckeyes win a Big Ten title, they should make the College Football Playoff.
Even with two regular season losses and a loss against the Big Ten West champion, Ohio State holds over a 63% chance of being in the final four.
But if the Buckeyes fail to make the Big Ten title game, their chances at a Playoff appearance dwindle down to 45% with two losses.
No matter the scenario, Ohio State's lowest percentage of winning a national title is 17%.
Ohio State football 2022 schedule
Week 1: Ohio State 21, Notre Dame 10
Week 2: Ohio State 45, Arkansas State 12
Week 3: Ohio State 77, Toledo 21
Week 4: Ohio State 52, Wisconsin 21
Week 5: Ohio State 49, Rutgers 10
Week 6: Ohio State 49, Michigan State 20
Week 8: Ohio State vs. Penn State, Oct. 29, State College, Pa.
Week 11: Ohio State vs. Maryland, Nov. 19, College Park, MD.
Week 12: Ohio State vs. Michigan, at noon Nov. 26, Columbus, Ohio
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This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Ohio State football's path to the College Football Playoff
