Olaf Scholz and Germany's political mainstream facing a miserable 2024
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Germany’s mainstream political parties are facing a nightmare 2024 in which they risk being clobbered by the far-Right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in local and European elections.
Senior figures in Olaf Scholz’s centre-Left SDP party, as well as his opposition rivals in the CDU, are said to be highly anxious about the polls, which will be held in June.
Both rounds of voting will take place on June 9, when Germans will vote on MPs to represent them in the European parliament. The elections typically favour fringe movements in EU states, such as Ukip and the Brexit Party prior to Britain’s withdrawal from the bloc in February 2020.
At the same time, municipal elections are being held in seven German states, including the Bavarian state of Baden-Wuerttemberg, where the CSU, the CDU’s sister party, is increasingly threatened by a swing towards the hard-Right AfD.
Also on the ballot paper is a new populist party led by Sahra Wagenknecht, which offers an unusual mix of left-wing economics, anti-“wokism” and a rejection of mass migration.
Her BSW party could prove particularly dangerous for Mr Scholz, who continues to plummet in the polls due to his December budget crisis and perceived dithering on the issue of military support for Ukraine.
Extremist fringe movements
German political analysts said the country has always struggled with extremist fringe movements, but pointed out that the AfD has recently managed to shrug off that label and woo middle-class voters who would not usually consider themselves far-Right.
Prof Ursula Muench, the director of Germany’s Academy for Political Education, said: “The AfD presents itself to the outside world with the appearance of the Buergerlichkeit [bourgeoisie]. This means that it also appears to be electable to those who do not perceive themselves as extremist, but, for example, want a restrictive migration policy.
“Above all, the AfD also succeeds in mobilising former non-voters, i.e. those who did not vote in past elections because of their general dissatisfaction with the political parties.”
Germany’s decades-long struggle with the “Ost-West-Kluft” [east-west divide] between the former Communist GDR and West Germany could also influence a swing in the east towards populist parties.
Dr Benjamin Hoehne, a German political scientist at Otto von Guericke University Magdeburg, said: “Right-wing populism is stronger in the east due to a lack of resilient civil society organisations and East Germans’ experiences with democracy, which have been more problematic than in the west.”
Tougher stance on migration
Both Mr Scholz and his CDU rival, Friedrich Merz, have sought to appear far tougher on migration in an attempt to appease voters leaning towards the AfD.
Mr Scholz declared that “we have to deport more people more often and faster” in a recent interview with Spiegel, while his government has agreed to consider a UK-Rwanda-style processing system for asylum seekers in third countries.
Mr Scholz could also benefit in polling from a last-minute resolution to his coalition’s budget crisis, after it agreed in mid-December on a spending plan for 2024.
The new budget had to be drawn up after Germany’s constitutional court blocked the use of pandemic-era funds on a series of major green and business development projects, creating a €17 billion (£14.6 billion) financial hole for the coming year.
Mr Merz, meanwhile, has overhauled his party’s new campaigning material, stripping out positive language on Islam such as the 2010 slogan, “Islam belongs to Germany.”
The party has also vowed to campaign for “Mut zur Leitkultur” - courage for a dominant culture - a concept that Angela Merkel, the former chancellor, rejected when she was leader as it was too divisive.
