Ole Miss baseball 2023 bold predictions: Are the polls sleeping on the defending champs?
OXFORD — The lawn chairs are nestled just beyond the right field wall. The national championship paraphernalia is in place. The scrimmages have been played.
Baseball season is just a few days away, with Ole Miss baseball set to host Delaware for a three-game set beginning on Friday (4 p.m, SEC Network+).
Here are three bold predictions for the season before the Rebels begin their title defense.
Ole Miss baseball numbers to know
2022 record: 42-23, 14-16 SEC
2022 SEC West finish: fifth
Top returning hitters: Jacob Gonzalez, SS, Jr. (18 home runs, .273 batting average, .963 OPS); Calvin Harris, C/OF, Jr. (.336 batting average, .917 OPS); Kemp Alderman, C/OF, Jr. (.286 batting average, 11 home runs, .910 OPS).
Top returning pitchers: Hunter Elliott, LHP, So. (2.70 ERA, 11.49 K/9, 0.45 HR/9); Jack Dougherty, RHP, Jr. (4.91 ERA, 12.48 K/9, 1.45 WHIP); Mason Nichols, RHP, So. (2.84 ERA, 11.65 K/9, 1.07 WHIP).
Top newcomer: Ethan Groff, OF, Sr. (transfer from Tulane)
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The Rebels outdo their preseason projection in the SEC West
Ole Miss loses a solid portion of the production that won the Rebels their first NCAA title, headlined by the departure of Tim Elko.
Perhaps that's why, despite claiming college baseball's ultimate prize, Ole Miss was picked to finish fourth in the SEC West by the conference's coaches. LSU, Texas A&M and Arkansas were all predicted to finish above the Rebels.
But Ole Miss has retooled well enough to finish top three in the West provided their additions can translate their production to the SEC.
The standout transfer addition for the Rebels is outfielder Ethan Groff from Tulane, who had a case to be the best player in the American Athletic Conference last season before an injury ended his campaign prematurely. Northwestern transfer Anthony Calarco and junior college infielder Ethan Lege should bolster the Ole Miss lineup, too.
Grayson Saunier finds himself in the SEC freshman of the year discussion
Coaches – especially experienced ones like Mike Bianco – tend to be wary of heaping too much hype on their young players too early.
That's why it was especially jarring to hear Bianco say he thought RHP Grayson Saunier had as good a fall as any freshman he could remember.
Barring a surprise, he'll start the season as a weekend starter for the Rebels, and he has the stuff to raise enough eyebrows and miss enough bats to enter the conference freshman of the year discussion.
Bianco's new shifting policy helps the Rebels' pitching staff
Ole Miss closed out the 2022 regular season with a 4.72 team ERA – 76th in the country and ninth among 14 SEC teams. The Rebels then proceeded to steamroll through the NCAA Tournament, allowing 2.27 runs per game along the way. That brought them up to 28th nationally by the end of the season with a 4.25 ERA.
It's difficult to imagine the Rebels struggling through the regular season again to that extent given their talent on the mound. And they'll also get a nice boost from the coaching staff, which has made the decision to over-shift the Rebels' defense when the situation calls for it this year.
A seeing-eye-single through a vacant shortstop hole might occasionally infuriate Ole Miss fans, but over a season-long sample the shift is an analytically sound decision that should only help Rebels pitchers and their numbers.
David Eckert covers Ole Miss for the Clarion Ledger. Email him at deckert@gannett.com or reach him on Twitter @davideckert98.
This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Three bold predictions for the 2023 Ole Miss baseball season
