Omicron is surging in Columbus. Here’s what makes COVID variant different from delta

COVID-19 cases across Georgia are surging as experts continue to learn more about the highly contagious omicron variant and how it differs from previous strains.

Muscogee County is reporting its highest COVID case rates in the pandemic. As of Jan. 12, there have been 4,070 cases in the last two weeks in the county at a rate of 2,124 cases per 100,000 people, according to the Georgia Department of Public Health.

This is the highest two-week case rate for Muscogee County in the pandemic. Before the omicron surge, the highest two-week case rate of 851 cases per 100,000 people occurred on Jan. 11, with 1,631 cases reported in a two-week period

“It’s just a much more contagious variant than any of the other variants that we’ve seen,” said Dr. Harry J. Heiman, a clinical associate professor at Georgia State University’s School of Public Health.

Every variant has its own characteristics, he said, and the ones that spread most easily tend to become dominant because they crowd out other variants.

How do experts know the omicron variant is causing the surge?

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention utilizes a technique called surveillance, Heiman said, which uses a statistical sampling to estimate how likely it is that someone with COVID-19 in a region has a specific type of variant.

“If I know that I’m testing 10% of the population and if I do that in a statistically rigorous way, I can then generalize those results to the other 90%,” he said.

The CDC does genomic testing on a percentage of positive tests and then provides population-based data with a process used across virtually all diseases.

The omicron variant became the dominant variant in the United States the week ending on Dec. 18, according to the World Health Organization. The CDC estimates that 99% of COVID-19 cases in the southeastern United States are likely caused by omicron, as of Jan. 11.

How the severity of omicron differs from Delta

Data on the severity of the omicron variant is growing, but limited, according to the latest brief issued by WHO. The CDC’s website says more data is needed to know if infections, reinfections and breakthrough cases cause more severe illness or death than infection with other variants.

“If we look at the data from South Africa and from the UK, there are a lot of indications that it may be milder,” Heiman said. “But the population is different.”

Unlike in previous surges, more people have been vaccinated, boosted or have a natural immunity to omicron because they’ve contracted COVID-19 already — a trend especially true in countries like the United States, he said.

“So, it makes it very difficult to compare (delta and omicron),” Heiman said. “It sometimes feels more like an apples and oranges comparison rather than an apples to apples.”

One thing that experts do know, he said, is that people who have been vaccinated and boosted are much more likely to be asymptomatic or have mild symptoms if they catch the virus.

As infection rates double in Muscogee County, Heiman said that even if just a fraction of people gets seriously ill, it will add up to many residents.

How does omicron’s transmission differ from delta’s?

The omicron variant is more transmissible than delta, according to an article published by Yale Medicine, but the reason for this is unknown.

Theories include the virus lasting longer in the air, fewer particles are needed for people to be infected, or infected individuals release more particles, according to Heiman.

Given the high transmission rates, it’s important for people to wear masks in public places and avoid high-risk indoor settings or places where large numbers of people congregate, he said.

The vaccines are holding up well in spite of the large case numbers.

“What I mean by that is not that people with a vaccine can’t still get an infection with the omicron variant,” Heiman said. “But overwhelmingly, those who are vaccinated, especially those who have had a booster, are much more likely to have a mild case.”

When will this case surge reach its peak?

Heiman said he expects this surge will likely reach its peak in two to three weeks, or near the end of January.

“I think the other thing that we can expect is that while cases may be plateauing and dropping off starting in a couple of weeks, hospitalizations and deaths tend to lag,” he said.

People should expect there to be a rise in U.S. hospitalizations into February, Heiman said.

Many people appear to be “adopting an attitude of inevitability” about contracting COVID-19 and the spread. There needs to be a better effort to get people fully vaccinated and implement the policies needed to protect the public, he said.

“What we’re seeing in Georgia is not inevitable,” he said. “And it really reflects our continuing vulnerability.”