Once projected to dominate their division, Bucs now simply hope to escape it
The dawn of September, when the Bucs had a new voice leading them and a fresh haul of seemingly rejuvenated — and ripe — free agents, seems a half-decade ago.
Or about the same time those free agents were completing their prime.
An overwhelming preseason favorite to repeat as NFC South champ for the first time ever, the Bucs now appear old, slow and discombobulated. Befitting a group that seems grayer by the week, it’s wheezing its way to the regular season finish line.
And it still might cross it before anyone else in the division.
Though in serious danger of producing the first losing season of Tom Brady’s two-decade tenure as a starter, the Bucs (6-7) still control their own destiny in the middling South. But unless they suddenly find their offensive groove, that control can be wrested.
“I just think there’s an intense level of urgency that everyone’s got to feel,” Brady said Monday on his weekly “Let’s Go!” podcast. “And you got four games left in the season and everything’s ahead of us.”
Here’s the postseason outlook for each of the four teams.
Bucs (6-7)
Current division record: 3-1
Remaining games: vs. Bengals (9-4), at Cardinals (4-9), vs. Panthers (5-8), at Falcons (5-8)
Chances of winning division (per New York Times playoff simulator): 76%
How they can clinch: In simplest terms, by winning out. More practically, they can lose their next two and still win the division by defeating the Panthers and Falcons in the season’s final two weeks.
Why they’ll win the division: Sunday’s embarrassment notwithstanding, the defense (19.5 points per game) still can be pretty stingy, and the back of the secondary is bound to get healthier. And even at 45, the guile and inner fire of Brady never can be discounted.
Why they won’t: The offense has scored more than 21 points exactly once all season, and no signs of a sudden transformation are visible.
Falcons (5-8)
Current division record: 1-3
Remaining games: at Saints (4-9), at Ravens (9-4), vs. Cardinals (4-9), vs. Bucs (6-7)
Chances of winning division (per New York Times playoff simulator): 5%
How they can clinch: Wins against the Saints and Bucs are imperative at this point. While head-to-head results represent the first NFC tiebreaker (the Falcons split with the Panthers), the second is divisional record, and the Bucs and Panthers can finish no worse than 3-3.
Why they’ll win the division: The Falcons run as well as anyone in the NFL (158.9 ypg), and they might catch the Ravens without Lamar Jackson (knee).
Why they won’t: Losers of four of their last five, the Falcons now are going with rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder, a sure sign they’re playing for the future.
Panthers (5-8)
Current division record: 3-1
Remaining games: vs. Steelers (5-8), vs. Lions (6-7), at Bucs (6-7), at Saints (4-9)
Chances of winning division (per New York Times playoff simulator): 18%
How they can clinch: Difficult, not impossible. If the Panthers top the Bucs on New Year’s Day in Tampa, they’d sweep the season series and hold the coveted tiebreaker edge (head-to-head) if both teams finish with the same record.
Why they’ll win the division: This is a confident club that has won three of its last four and is playing as if it wants interim coach Steve Wilks to get the permanent job.
Why they won’t: Though one of the league’s feel-good stories, the Panthers probably don’t possess the offensive potency to keep this late-season surge going.
Saints (4-9)
Current division record: 1-3
Remaining games: vs. Falcons (5-8), at Browns (5-8), at Eagles (12-1), vs. Panthers (5-8)
Chances of winning division (per New York Times playoff simulator): 1%
How they can clinch: Even if the Saints win out, they’d need help. The Bucs hold the tiebreaker edge, having swept New Orleans in the regular season.
Why they’ll win the division: One of the French Quarter voodoo shops will cast a spell over the rest of the South.
Why they won’t: The Saints’ last realistic chance of winning the division fizzled when Brady and the Bucs rallied past them two Monday nights ago in Tampa.
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