Go ahead and believe it. The Texas Rangers are now the favorites to make history

Having arrived to the Texas Rangers just in time for all of the “fun” in 2021, Nathaniel Lowe can’t speak to the ugly depth that this franchise reached before his arrival, but he lost enough to know.

Before they reached this point of bliss the Rangers went through baseball hell, not to mention a lot of money, to be here in October 2023.

“Two more wins and it will be totally worth it,” the Rangers first baseman said Monday after his team defeated the Houston Astros in Game 2 of the American League Championship Series.

“We’re on a good roll right now. All of our shortcomings in the regular season are done. We’re going to make the most of it. It’s pretty unbelievable.”

The Rangers lead the Astros 2-0 in the ALCS, with the next three games scheduled for Globe Life Field. Game 3 is at 7:03 p.m. Wednesday, Game 4 is at 7:03 p.m. Thursday and Game 5, if necessary, is at 4:07 p.m. Friday.

What felt impossible in March during spring training is now a mathematical reality. The Texas Rangers have a better than 25% chance of winning their first World Series.

The odds are better than that. You can go ahead and start believing the Rangers are the favorites to beat the Astros, and win the next round, too.

According to some, not all, oddsmakers, the Rangers are narrowly the favorite to win the World Series over the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies, who lost to the Astros in the World Series last season, led the National League Championship Series 1-0 against Arizona going into Game 2 Tuesday night in Philly.

Before this ALCS, the Rangers were slight underdogs to beat the Astros. Betting on a sweep may be a bit too confident, but the Astros have never won a series when they trailed 0-2.

Two details work in Houston’s favor:

Houston Defense Exhibit A: They’re the Astros.

Whatever you think of their history, the Astros are in their seventh consecutive league championship series for a reason.

All dynasties must end, but it’s hard to plan a schedule around a team with players like Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez and Jose Abreu losing four out of seven.

Winning four of the next five against a good team is a task; winning one, two or even three games in this series is attainable.

“The momentum is in our favor, but can’t let the guard down,” Rangers starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi said after winning Game 2. “The Astros are an incredible team, and they have the lineup from top to bottom. They have good pitching.”

He’s not lying.

Houston Defense Exhibit B: The Astros simply hate Houston.

The Astros are the rare example of the winning team that is better on the road than at home.

The Astros were the only team that made the playoffs to post a losing record at home during the regular season, 39-42. They were one of 12 teams to have a losing record at home. Away from Minute Maid Park, the Astros won 51 games, the second highest figure in baseball.

It doesn’t make any sense, but the Astros leaving Houston for Arlington may be the one thing that saves them in this series.

“Houston has been playing well in that building, too,” Rangers second baseman Marcus Semien said on Monday evening.

By “that building” he means Globe Life Mall. Since it opened in 2020, the Astros are 19-11 in their Texas vacation home, including 6-1 this season. In that mark is a three-game sweep back in September when they outscored the Rangers, 39-10.

All of that data, those records, and those statistics should mean something.

Should.

The Rangers, 7-0 this postseason, are in one of those playoff runs where it all works. Even the things that don’t work work out.

The team’s defense, particularly from third baseman Josh Jung and rookie left fielder Evan Carter, cannot get enough credit. It’s not about errors committed but the amount of hits and extra bases the Rangers’ gloves have taken away from their postseason opponents, Tampa Bay, Baltimore and now Houston.

In the postseason, the team’s pitching staff has a 2.14 ERA, and the once horrendous bullpen is actually protecting leads. The offense has scored an MLB-high 39 runs.

Put those numbers into your phone and the fact that the Rangers have trailed one inning in this postseason checks out. They are two wins from setting the record for consecutive wins to start a postseason, which the Kansas City Royals set in 2014 with eight.

(Just a head’s up, that Royals team lost Game 7 of that World Series to the San Francisco Giants, who were managed by ... Rangers skipper Bruce Bochy.)

The Rangers still need to win six more games before the celebration both they and their long suffering fans desire.

Considering where they were back in March, and for the previous six years, this is all quite unbelievable.