'If one of these systems gets into the Gulf, watch out!' AccuWeather hurricane expert warns
The first hurricane of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season took shape as Danielle -- the fourth named storm of the year -- strengthened on Friday and Earl -- the fifth named system of the year -- formed, ending a historically tranquil stretch across the basin. These two storms kicked off what is expected to be a bustling period of tropical activity in the weeks to come.
AccuWeather meteorologists issued an update to the seasonal forecast on Sept. 2, predicting what they expect to take place over the nearly three months remaining until hurricane season officially winds down on Nov. 30. They are forecasting a total of 12 to 16 named tropical systems in the Atlantic hurricane basin when the final tally is in this season, including five to seven hurricanes, two or three of which may strengthen into major hurricanes (Category 3 strength with winds of 111 mph or higher) and three or four direct impacts to the United States.
"AccuWeather meteorologists are constantly monitoring, refining and integrating new data into our predictions," AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter said. "And today's update is based on such constant scrutiny of our seasonal hurricane forecast."
Dan Kottlowski, AccuWeather's top hurricane expert, warns that it can only take one intense hurricane to define the season -- and that the overall seasonal tally does not have a bearing on what damage storms are going to inflict.
"If one of these systems gets into the Gulf, watch out," Kottlowski said.
This was the case in years past, such as 2008. That hurricane season was not hyperactive overall with just two more storms than the historical yearly average of 14 but is remembered for Hurricane Ike, which caused nearly 200 fatalities and $40 billion in damages.
 |
Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE, is a scientific parameter that measures the severity of a hurricane season. ACE tracks the combined strength and duration of all tropical storms and hurricanes. The stronger the tropical system is and the longer it lasts, the more energy it accumulates for the seasonal tally. The average ACE for an Atlantic hurricane season is 122, according to NOAA. This year, AccuWeather is predicting the ACE will total 110-130. |
One of the driving forces behind the anticipated tropical activity is La Niña, a climate phenomenon characterized by cooler-than-normal waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, that typically results in an active Atlantic hurricane season. In reality, there are several meteorological phenomena at play that ultimately dictate the vigor of hurricane season.
"La Niña alone does not underpin a conducive atmosphere for tropical development, because there are so many factors involved," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok explained.
The south-central Atlantic Ocean is one of the primary zones for tropical development, but dry and stable air has been a "critical factor" in limiting storm formation in this area so far this year, Kottlowski added.
An upcoming shift in the weather pattern is expected. Conditions are expected to become more conducive for tropical systems to survive -- and in some cases even thrive -- as the season persists. Disruptive winds will begin to slacken as dry air abates. All the while, bath-warm waters that have been in place all along throughout much of the Atlantic will set the stage for an uptick in storms during the coming weeks.
Kottlowski described a northeasterly flow of dry and stable air that extended from Europe, which was dominated by brutal heat, to the south-central Atlantic as acting like "an oil slick that had not been cleaned up in the atmosphere." As disturbances trekked across this key development region of the basin through August they ran into this "barrier," that prevented tropical development, Pastelok weighed in.
Those forces that shut down tropical activity earlier in the season are not expected to hinder systems from becoming better organized this fall. The result will be a lopsided hurricane season with most of the tropical storms and hurricanes predicted to develop after Sept. 10, the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Kottlowski said that there have been years that spawned 10 named tropical systems after Sept. 1, and some of those years shared a similar weather pattern to the current season over and beyond the Atlantic Ocean.
Like some of those previous years, another trend expected this season is that tropical activity is likely to continue well into the season. Following an active October, the Atlantic may still have more up its sleeves heading into November, the final month of the official hurricane season.
"I would be very surprised if we don't see one or two storms into November," he added.
 |
This GOES-16 GeoColor satellite image taken Tuesday, Sept. 15, 2020, at 3 p.m. EDT., and provided by NOAA, shows Hurricane Sally moving slowly towards the coast from the Gulf of Mexico. (NOAA via AP) |
Pastelok and Kottlowski hold firm to their prognostication released months ago that the area of the U.S. at the highest risk of one or more landfalling tropical systems is the zone from Florida's Atlantic coast through the Carolinas.
However, residents along the storm-weary Gulf coast should not let their guard down.
Warm water is one of the key ingredients for sustaining tropical systems, and the water in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico is almost the equivalent of bath water. Water temperatures across much of the Gulf were in the mid-80s, well above the 78 F threshold needed to support a hurricane. Kottlowski cautions that if a system tracks over these unusually warm waters, it could strengthen into a powerful storm on par with Hurricane Michael, which struck Florida as a Category 5 hurricane, in 2018 or Hurricane Laura, which slammed into Louisiana as a strong Category 4 storm, in 2020.
In both cases, very warm water in the Gulf of Mexico supercharged the systems as they approached land, resulting in the hurricanes being at peak strength when they made landfall.
 |
Water surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are in the mid-80s on Sept. 2, 2022. (AccuWeather) |
Interests near the coast of the Gulf of Mexico or the Atlantic Ocean are being urged to pay close attention to the weather forecast due to the elevated risk of landfalling tropical systems through the start of November as robust tropical cyclones could still form.
As for what turned out to be a remarkably slow start to the first half of the Atlantic hurricane season, Porter speculated that "some factors not yet fully understood by anyone from a science, predictability and forecast skill perspective weeks or months in advance have been clearly involved in July and August with a noticeable lack of tropical storms and hurricanes in several oceans around the world including the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic [basins]."
Porter also highlighted the contrast of challenges presented by seasonal hurricane forecasting, which takes place months ahead of the June 1 opening of the Atlantic season and those presented by forecasting how a single storm will behave.
"Seasonal hurricane forecasting, overall, still has lower skill and accuracy than the high level of skill and accuracy -- that especially AccuWeather meteorologists have -- in forecasting a hurricane's future track and intensity once it actually develops," Porter said.
Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.
Subscribe to AccuWeather on Apple News.
