There is one thing that can save Kenny Payne’s job at Louisville: Beating Kentucky

After Louisville basketball’s 85-63 win over Pepperdine on Sunday, embattled head coach Kenny Payne was asked if he felt like he was coaching for his job.

No, said Payne.

He will be Thursday.

If the Cardinals can somehow find a way to upset No. 9 Kentucky at the Yum Center, the 57-year-old coach has an excellent chance of finishing his second season.

If the Cardinals play a competitive game against John Calipari’s Wildcats, Payne should receive a reprieve.

If Louisville is crushed by its archrival, in front of a U of L home crowd likely to be overtaken by Kentucky blue, Payne could be unemployed at Christmas.

He was already supposed to be fired, of course. That was the word last week out of Louisville. The Cardinals had suffered embarrassing back-to-back losses to DePaul and Arkansas State. Their record was 4-6. Payne’s head coaching record was 8-34. The River City rumor mill had U of L’s administration ready to make a move.

CBS Sports’ Matt Norlander reported his sources said Payne would be fired “sooner rather that later.” Sports Illustrated’s Pat Forde posted on X that “Kenny Payne’s tenure should have ended last year and assuredly will end this year.” Norlander’s CBS colleague Gary Parrish wrote, “the school should pull the plug on this failed experiment before the Cardinals return to the court Sunday.”

It did not. Pepperdine is no powerhouse, but Louisville responded with one of its better games. Tennessee transfer Brandon Huntley-Hatfield scored 20 points and grabbed 12 rebounds. Mike James scored 19 points. The Cards went 9-of-16 from three-point range and were credited with a season-high 17 assists. The 22-point margin was the largest of the 43-game Payne era.

Said Huntley-Hatfield of Payne: “I still believe in him.”

I’m a Kenny Payne fan. In early 2020, I wrote a column asking why the then Kentucky assistant had not been given a shot as a head coach. After spending two years on the staff of the NBA’s New York Knicks, Payne received his chance at his alma mater. I wrote that it was a perfect fit.

Opinions vary as to why it has not been a perfect fit. Some blame Payne’s inexperience as a head coach. Others cite questionable recruiting. Supporters point fingers at his staff. Some believe Payne is simply in over his head.

And he may be. On the court, Louisville has won three national titles, even if the third was stripped by the NCAA. The late Denny Crum was a Hall of Fame coach who built the Cardinals into a national contender year in and year out. Love him or hate him, Rick Pitino kept it going. There is no viable excuse why Louisville basketball is where Louisville basketball is at present.

Kentucky fans would find this all very amusing were it not for their affection for the Louisville head coach. A personal favorite with UK’s players, Payne was part of a national championship (2012) and four Final Fours (2011, 2012, 2014, 2015) during his time under Calipari.

So can KP survive? The Cards played then No. 19 Texas to the wire before losing by a point at Madison Square Garden in the Empire Classic, then lost to Indiana by eight the next night. The Cards have also lost to teams that are currently 202 (Chattanooga), 216 (DePaul) and 171 (Arkansas State) in Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency rankings.

“We’ve talked about, ‘How do we take this to the next level?’” said Payne on Sunday about his dialogue with Josh Heird, U of L athletic director. “’How do we make sure that we are playing in a way that you build momentum, not just within the program but in the community, and so that people are proud about this program?’ I believe Josh wants us to be good, he wants us to make this fan base proud, and I know he wants for the guys to enjoy being here. And I have the same goals.”

Reality: Upsetting Kentucky and his old boss on Thursday night would save Kenny Payne’s job.

Also reality: It may be the only thing.

It’s a long season, but John Calipari has Kentucky basketball back to ‘Kentucky good’

Three takeaways from Kentucky basketball’s win over the North Carolina Tar Heels

With Kenny Payne’s future in doubt, what does Louisville basketball recruiting look like?

When will UK’s Justin Edwards have his breakout moment? John Calipari says it’s coming soon.