Democrats in 'frontline' districts put hopes of retaking the House in jeopardy

As Democrats begin their mission of re-taking the House of Representatives from a razor-thin, single-digit deficit, one thing may be making that harder: the ambition of members of their own party for higher office.

So far, five members have already announced plans to run for Senate in just the first few months of the 2024 cycle including Democratic Reps. Katie Porter (Calif.) and Elissa Slotkin (Mich.), both of whom are leaving "frontline" — or highly competitive — districts.

Slotkin, of Michigan’s 7th District, and Porter, of California’s 47th, were both elected in the Democratic wave year of 2018. They won their reelections by 6 and 3 percentage points, respectively, in 2022. Reps. Adam Schiff and Barbara Lee, of California, and Arizona’s Rep. Ruben Gallego, also announced retirements in a bid for higher office — but they all represent safer Democratic-leaning districts.

“Elissa came along in 2018 and had the perfect blend of temperament, experience and ability to raise money to win that seat back,” said Thomas Morgan, Michigan’s Democratic Party 7th District chair. “This is a competitive seat, it’s a very diverse population here — everyone from MSU students to auto workers to farmers — so I expect it’ll be extremely competitive to fill Elissa Slotkin’s shoes — which seems insane to even say because it’ll be really difficult to do.”

These open seats were a welcome sight to Republicans. “The path to growing the Republican majority runs through seats like Elissa Slotkin’s. The NRCC is all hands on deck to add this seat to the Republican column in 2024,” said Jack Pandol, communications director for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

A spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said that with the right resources, Democrats will continue representing these districts.

“I think we’ll win all those seats,” said Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) of the California open races. “I think in a presidential year, we’ll have a good showing. But we’ll have to work hard to make sure we keep it.”

The incumbent advantages in fundraising and campaigning

One big advantage Slotkin and Porter had was that they were both excellent fundraisers.

“People just have a lot of assumptions [that] because I was a good fundraiser that it must have been like a nothing burger,” Porter said, describing how competitive her reelection was.

Porter raised $26 million in 2022 and spent $18.5 million on advertising compared to about $1 million spent by her opponent, Scott Baugh, who raised just $3 million, according to the FEC and AdImpact, a service that tracks political advertising.

Slotkin was also an elite fundraiser, bringing in almost $10 million compared to Republican opponent Tom Barrett’s $2.7 million. There was a parallel disparity in each candidate’ advertising spending: $8.6 million from Slotkin’s committee against $888,000 for Barrett, according to AdImpact.

Losing incumbency advantage translates to losing more established community connections and campaign infrastructure. Coupled with a shrinking number of competitive House seats thanks to redistricting, these factors weigh more heavily on a party when control of the House could be decided by a single-digit number of seats.

Having a strong presence on the airwaves was coupled with a competitive field operation. Porter stressed the amount of work that was needed to meet constituents in her newly drawn district last year and how important it was to introduce herself to voters.

In Michigan’s sprawling 7th district, Livingston County Chair Judy Daubenmier said building enthusiasm around a new candidate will be part of the challenge with Slotkin’s eventual replacement.

“That doesn’t happen overnight. You have to show up, show up all the time, show up everywhere. When we have a candidate officially announced I’ll be making that point to them. They need to be at the Saint Patrick’s Day parade, the Fourth of July parade,” Daubenmier said.

Seeking higher office is 'just the nature of this place'

Still, losing strong incumbents like Porter and Slotkin is something parties have had to deal with many times in the past. In addition to these five now open races, Democrats will have to defend 29 additional "frontline" members, outlined in a list recently released by the DCCC, including fellow Michigander Rep. Dan Kildee.

“It happens every two years. It's just the nature of this place,” Kildee said of how the retirements impact winning back a majority. “It's just a reality we have to face but knowing that there are good candidates back home gives me — at least in that district — some reassurance that we’ll be competitive.”

Democrats boost deep benches in both California and Michigan. Several local Democrats in Slotkin’s district have already indicated interest in running although none have declared yet. In California, Porter has already endorsed state Sen. Dave Min as a possible replacement, and nine Democrats have registered with the FEC to run for Schiff’s old seat.

Thirty-year incumbent and former House Majority Whip Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) has seen many retirements in his tenure in the House and Democratic House leadership. This year’s list so far gave him no pause.

“Anytime you've got an incumbent that opens up a seat, that's a challenge, but I don't know that it’s anything unusual — especially in California. In California, it might be easier,” Clyburn said with a laugh.