The ‘Only Democrat Who Can Win’ in Montana Might Not Run

He has a flat-top haircut, seven fingers after a meat grinder accident, and a Twitter profile picture of him in a baseball cap and stained “Hellgate” hoodie.

Sen. Jon Tester is hardly the portrait of an average D.C. politician. But in Montana, he’s almost certainly the Democrats’ best hope of retaining their seat in Big Sky Country.

The only problem is, as of this moment, he’s undecided on if he’s going to run for re-election.

Tester’s current term is up in 2024, a year where the Democrats’ Senate map is rife with opportunities for losses and virtually no pickups. Democrats will be defending their Senate seats in swing states like Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Ohio—in addition to their red-state seats in West Virginia and Montana.

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Democrats across the state seem sure Tester is their best shot at beating Republicans for the crucial Senate seat. He’s a moderate with a farmboy appeal who’s managed to win over Republicans and independents in the past. But with a very real possibility of retirement from Tester, Montana Democrats can’t necessarily count on his prowess this time around.

And yet, in calls to Montana Democrats this month, The Daily Beast couldn’t find any sign of a plan B. For many, it’s Tester or bust.

“Jon’s the only Democrat who can win here. And that’s been settled for quite a while,” said Tom Winter, a Democrat who ran for Congress in Montana last year.

“I personally don't think that there is a Democrat in the state of Montana right now that could beat a Republican, other than Sen. Tester, for that Senate seat. Sen. Tester has a very high approval rating, and deservedly so,” said Penny Ronning, who was the Democratic nominee for Montana’s 2nd Congressional District last election.

Asked about his timeline on an announcement, Tester jabbed at the question on Tuesday. “Sometime before the next election, I’m going to make a decision,” he quipped in the Capitol.

Pressed for something more specific, Tester followed up that he didn’t know. “You know, the timeline is probably closer than I want because I’m just tired of answering questions,” he said. “But we’ll make a decision, hopefully pretty soon.”

Tester is still relatively young for a senator, and he ended 2022 with approximately $3 million in his campaign accounts—a sign that he’s at least continued fundraising. Senators who are surefire bets for retirement generally give up on the grueling process of fundraising. For example, Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), who announced her retirement Tuesday, only raised $558 last year.

The lack of behind-the-scenes jockeying for Tester’s seat is also perhaps another sign state Democrats are confident he’ll run again. In other states facing potential Senate retirements, like Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD) in Maryland, leading Democrats are already shoring up backup bids. Democrats in California started running for Feinstein’s seat before she even made her departure official.

At least one other Democratic senator, Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, has already announced she intends to retire. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) is also, like Tester, on retirement watch. And party leaders are waiting to hear if Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who recently switched from being a Democrat to an independent, will choose to run again in Arizona.

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“As far as who else might run, honestly, Tester is our person and that conversation isn’t being discussed, at least to my knowledge,” said Montana state Sen. Shannon O’Brien (D). “The senator has plenty of time to make any decisions.”

There are, of course, very real reasons Tester might be growing tired of the job.

His flight between D.C. and Montana, which he takes twice each week while the Senate is in session, is roughly eight hours. That’s on top of driving from the airport to home. He also has a family farm that he says needs to be tended to.

After all, while 66 isn’t necessarily retirement age in the Senate, by the 2024 election, he’d be 68. He’d be finishing his next term, doing all of those commutes still, at 74 years old. The Senate, unlike the House, has never allowed remote voting.

Those logistical woes are only amplified by the realities of campaigning in a rural state like Montana, where campaign stops are hours apart.

And then there are the Republicans, who are eager to make the Montana Senate race as brutal as possible for him, or whoever else would take his place.

A number of Republicans are already rumored to be eyeing the Montana Senate primary, including Reps. Matt Rosendale (R-MT) and Ryan Zinke (R-MT), the state’s only two members in the U.S. House. The campaign arm for Senate Republicans is already sharpening its daggers, ready to strike at a key seat in their pursuit to win back control of the upper chamber.

“Jon Tester is the last remaining statewide Democrat in Montana. He should retire instead of facing a brutal two years defending his support for Joe Biden’s disastrous policies that have led to skyrocketing prices, rising crime, and open borders that are hurting Montana communities,” NRSC spokeswoman Maggie Abboud told The Daily Beast in a statement.

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The NRSC is currently chaired by Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), teeing up an interstate battle that’s sure to turn heads.

Democrats’ Senate campaign arm, meanwhile, appeared more reserved on the subject. In a brief interview in the Capitol Tuesday, Democratic Senate Campaign Committee Chair Gary Peters (D-MI) said he hopes Tester runs again, calling him “a great candidate and a great senator.”

But Peters wasn’t willing to engage with questions about Democrats’ prospects in Montana if Tester somehow wasn’t a part of it.

“I'm not gonna speculate on that until I hear what Senator Tester has in mind. I want to, you know—respect to him. He has served the state of Montana real brilliantly here in the U.S. Senate and it's up to him to decide whether or not he's going to run. Any speculation after that is premature,” Peters said.

Since Tester’s last election in 2018, the political tides in Montana have grown increasingly red. Back then, Montana had Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock. It was considered effectively purple. And 2018 was a banner year for Democrats while anti-Trump sentiment helped the party win back the House by healthy margins.

But time has changed the Big Sky state. In 2020, Daines trumped Bullock in their Senate contest, winning by 10 points. Republican Gov. Greg Gianforte won his seat by more than 12 points. The GOP swept both congressional contests in the state in 2022.

And in a presidential year when Montana is easily projected to go red, Tester—or any Democrat for that matter—would be counting on a high amount of ticket-splitting. In modern-day politics, that’d be a rare feat.

Tester’s teetering on retirement does raise a bit of an existential question for Montana Democrats: When their 66-year-old senator does exit, how are they creating the next Tester? How are they building up their bench?

The answer, it seems, is still being worked out.

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Winter said there needs to be “a full-throated belief and attempt to make change to a place that’s changing very quickly and bring it back to some of what it was, which was one of the more affordable and egalitarian places in the country.”

Ronning said organizers need to be working to “bring our state back to a reasonable place.”

“We’re not in a reasonable place right now,” Ronning said. “And you know, as a result, generations are going to suffer.”

Ronning added that the Democratic Party, both at the national level and the state level, “needs to get leadership in a place where they understand community organization.”

“We haven’t had that type of leadership since, you know, Barack Obama’s first presidential campaign,” she said.

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