Opinion: The 2024 election is a chance to write a new script

With the dog days of summer looming, there is a collective sense that the nation is headed toward four more years of either the current president – Joe Biden – or his immediate predecessor – Donald Trump. And Americans don’t seem particularly enthusiastic about it. In fact, the majority of voters in both parties feel the country is headed in the wrong direction, according to an AP/NORC poll.

Geoff Duncan - CNN

For a course correction to happen, though, there are three questions in need of answers:

First, can Biden convince voters he is up to the job? Despite a string of policy wins, a positive May jobs report and aversion of financial default, the incumbent’s approval ratings remain stuck at 41%, according to CNN’s Poll of Polls, slightly lower than Trump’s standing at the same point in his term.

Both Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy exceeded expectations during the high wire act around the debt ceiling. By signing the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023, Biden accomplished a feat his one-time boss, former President Barack Obama, couldn’t in 2011 when the United States suffered its first credit downgrading before reaching an eventual compromise.

Seventy-three percent of voters, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, believe Biden, now 80, is too old to be president. Though he joked it off, his fall at the US Air Force Academy commencement in Colorado last week was worrisome. It was the latest in a series of stumbles on the national stage, something no American wants to see from their commander-in-chief. The clock is ticking on Biden’s ability to right the ship of public perception on his physical fitness for the office he is seeking to hold until the age of 86.

Second, can anyone in the ballooning field of Republican contenders coalesce the support of those seeking a new post-Trump direction? Yes, it is early, and the polls could be wrong, but they are also consistent. From the national data (less important) to the early states (worth watching), Trump enjoys a wide lead.

After a rocky rollout, Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis remains in a consistent second place. He is finding his footing with well-received campaign stops in the early states. This week, the field grows with the additions of former Vice President Mike Pence, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, three accomplished leaders with impressive resumes. They join a pair of impressive South Carolinians: former Governor and United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and US Senator Tim Scott.

The challenge for those who once worked with Trump is distancing themselves from the legacy of the former president without offending his voters. But his support won’t erode on its own. In recent days, it has been encouraging to see several candidates speak up to Trump, especially from his right flank where he is perhaps most vulnerable.

Trump’s decision-making during the pandemic is also ripe for discussion. At the time, Trump was standing shoulder-to-shoulder with Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top US infectious disease official, at daily briefings and criticizing states like Georgia for re-opening too soon. As the first state to re-open, Georgia fared better economically than blue states like California and New York, according to POLITICO’s State Pandemic Scorecard.

It was also heartening watching GOP leaders break sharply from Trump’s congratulatory message to North Korea dictator Kim Jong Un or his coziness with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Republican Party must be clear that autocrats need steadfast opposition, not praise.

Lastly, will the Fulton County district attorney investigation into allegations of Trump’s meddling in the 2020 election in Georgia be the legal straw that breaks the camel’s back? Neither the April indictment brought by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg nor last month’s jury decision that Trump sexually abused and defamed author E. Jean Carroll in the 1990s slowed his political momentum. The weak nature of Bragg’s case supercharged Trump’s ascent. The Carroll lawsuit created a new chance for Trump to portray himself as the victim. (Trump denies wrongdoing in the Bragg case and is appealing the jury ruling in the Carroll defamation suit.)

But the Georgia case, based on actions Trump allegedly took while president, has always been viewed as a more serious one. Fani Willis, the Fulton County prosecutor leading the investigation, has signaled she will make an announcement about if she will bring criminal charges this summer. She further raised eyebrows by announcing remote workdays for her staff in August, a move perceived as intended to maintain order during the fallout of Trump-related news. (Trump has denied wrongdoing in the Georgia investigation.)

And perhaps even more consequential? The Justice Department’s classified documents probe. On Wednesday, the Justice Department informed Trump’s legal team that he was the target of a federal investigation into the possible mishandling of classified documents. And, on Thursday, sources told CNN that Trump had been indicted in that probe. (Trump continues to deny wrongdoing in the classified documents probe.)

Republicans cannot be comfortable with nominating a presidential candidate who has been indicted in at least two jurisdictions and faces indictment in one potential other.

In the short term, both parties have work to do. Biden must address questions about his age in a way that go beyond his usual, “watch me.” He should get out of Washington, DC, and hit the trail with vigor, showing the electorate he is up to the task of a full-time campaign. With a recent CNN poll showing environmental lawyer Robert Kennedy Jr. polling at 20%, Biden and his team should take the primary seriously. It would be a mistake to simply write off the nephew of President John F. Kennedy whose candidacy is showing some signs of resonating.

On the Republican side, the contenders would be wise to heed the words of New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, who opted against a White House bid this week. Sununu cited his fear that an unwieldy number of GOP candidates clears the way for another Trump nomination. Everyone who wants to run for president has the right to do so. But without momentum or a pathway, they should do the right thing and step to the sidelines to clear the way for the next-best non-Trump alternative.

Sequels rarely live up to the first edition. If you’re among the majority of Americans dreading a Trump-Biden redux, you’re in good company. The outcome isn’t a done deal yet. There is still a chance to write a new script. The next generation of Americans is counting on it.

This piece has been updated to reflect the latest news.

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