Opinion: Biden’s supporters need to get real about Trump, and fast

CNN Opinion asked political contributors who support former President Donald Trump’s main competitors what they make of the race coming out of the Iowa caucuses. The views expressed in these commentaries are their own.

Why Ron DeSantis lost me

For a while, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis seemed to offer everything a conservative like me would look for in a candidate: a long track record of conservative successes, a proven ability to help shift a purple state in a Republican direction and battle scars from having taken the fight to the left and won.

As I wrote last summer, there seemed to be a real lane for someone who could position himself as Donald Trump-adjacent — so long as he offered more than “Trumpism without the baggage.”

I wasn’t alone; many conservative wonks, from National Review’s Michael Brendan Dougherty to Christopher Rufo of the Manhattan Institute, saw the promise of a battle-tested governor who could win elections, own the libs and advance conservative priorities was worth cheering. If the first votes in the primary had been cast a year ago, I’d have been right there with them.

Unfortunately, Team DeSantis didn’t deliver the campaign I’d been hoping for. His infamously glitchy campaign launch last May, live on Twitter with Elon Musk, presaged a campaign that cocooned itself in a conservative echo chamber and suffered high-profile staffing slip-ups.

He proved awkward in person and on the debate stage. As Semafor’s David Weigel has written, the Florida governor lacks a “poker face,” and spent many early debates telegraphing his desperation to stick to scripted lines and avoid missteps.

Over the past month, we’ve seen flashes of what a different DeSantis campaign could have done — dinging Trump for his calling the passage of pro-life legislation a “terrible mistake” and pointing out Trump’s lack of principles by prioritizing personal loyalty over commitment to conservative policy goals. It’s been too little, too late, and it’s possible no alternative playbook could have led to a better outcome for the Florida governor.

Ever since his first indictment, the former president’s campaign for a third Republican nomination has been like a snowball rolling downhill, gathering mass and momentum and becoming seemingly unstoppable. Republican primary voters may never have been open to someone who offered Trump’s posture and policy goals in a more competent package when the original item was still on offer. That explains why Trump got about half of all the Republican votes in Iowa, leaving DeSantis far behind.

Which leaves Republicans who have grave concerns about the former president’s electability and suitability for office — including myself — with one final alternative: former UN ambassador Nikki Haley.

Haley, who also was far behind Trump in Iowa, offers some positives for conservatives like me: an approach to abortion that is principled but compassionate, a well-worn familiarity with traditional conservative policy goals such as applying free market principles to health care, and a laudable and apparently earnest desire to work across the aisle rather than feed the fever swamps.

But she’s far from perfect. Her foreign policy stances, in particular, demonstrate the worst impulses of the George W. Bush era; during the campaign, she’s been willing to use aggressive rhetoric and commit America to be the world’s policeman without even much lip service to the trade-offs at play. And even on the topic where she is most willing to highlight disagreement with her former boss, spending and the federal deficit, she’s pushed for tax cuts, which would be likely to completely undermine her focus on reducing the national debt.

Even still, her ability to build momentum over the course of the primary showcases her political talent and ability to attract college-educated Republicans tired of having to explain away their support for a president whose hair-trigger social media posts verge into the unhinged.

She offers a pre-Trump version of Republicanism that still appeals to many on the right, and even those of us hoping for a more working-class friendly GOP can find some things to like.

DeSantis poured resources into Iowa, visited all 99 counties, and still couldn’t come away with anything better than a tight victory for second place. Iowa’s result will give Haley a small boost heading into her all-or-nothing battle in New Hampshire. Warts and all, she holds the only other ticket out of Iowa tonight. For those, like me, who think a third Trump nomination would be too high-stakes a gamble for the Republican Party to make, Monday was the night that Haley became the only viable option.

Patrick T. Brown is a fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, a conservative think tank and advocacy group based in Washington, DC.

Why a third-place finish in Iowa is good enough for Nikki Haley

Conventional wisdom had it that former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley wasn’t going to play well in Iowa. Republicans there are too conservative, some said. They’re too evangelical, some said. They’re far more interested in former President Donald Trump’s election-denying, fire-breathing, revenge-seeking brand of politics than someone like Haley’s, many said.

While the last part proved true on the night of the Iowa caucuses, which Trump won handily, the rest underestimated Haley’s broad appeal, or perhaps overestimated Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’.

After  Monday night’s votes came in, it was inarguable that Iowa Republicans love Trump — roughly half identified themselves as part of the MAGA movement, and about two-thirds said they do not believe that President Joe Biden’s win over Trump in 2020 was legitimate, according to initial results of CNN’s entrance poll for the caucuses.

That should tell you a lot about Iowa voters, but enough of them also voted for DeSantis and Haley. CNN is projecting that DeSantis will finish in second place with 21%, just ahead of Haley with 19%.

When I spoke to the Haley campaign early Monday morning, before the Iowa caucuses had begun, they said they were shifting toward Trump, seemingly writing DeSantis off as their closest threat.

“It’s you and me now,” she said to Trump, just before the Iowa caucuses.

She’ll likely have to deal with DeSantis for at least a little while longer, but that argument takes on a tinge of credibility after Iowa, where DeSantis had poured in tons of money, time and campaign resources to bank it all. The close finish with Haley is not the win or even decisive second place victory his team was hoping for.

“Sometimes these expectations get set, and that can be bad for some candidates, too, and I think that you’ll see an interesting story emerge with that,” said DeSantis Monday morning, trying to lower expectations.

Except his own team set them very, very high.

“I can tell you without hesitation: With the energy, the motivation, just what we’re seeing as we travel the state: This guy is going to be the winner of the Iowa Caucus on Monday night,” said Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, who gave DeSantis her endorsement.

DeSantis himself said last week that his finish in Iowa could “upend” Trump’s lead in the GOP primary.

And as one DeSantis campaign committee member said, “a close second would be a successful outcome,” and “third place is not good.”

Needless to say, DeSantis did not win. He did not upend Trump’s lead. And he did not finish “a close second” to Trump.

With all eyes on New Hampshire next, it’s Haley with the momentum, not DeSantis.

SE Cupp is a CNN political commentator.

Biden’s supporters need to get real about Trump, and fast

Former President Donald Trump has been the most likely Republican presidential nominee for some time, and his massive win in Monday’s Iowa caucuses puts him even more firmly in the lead. Despite Trump’s consistent leads in the polls, Democratic pollster Terrance Woodbury of HIT Strategies told me, “There are some Democratic voters that have not accepted the inevitability of Trump’s nomination.” Astead Herndon heard the same thing from a focus group participant on “The Run-Up,” his outstanding podcast that asked “Are Black Voters Leaving Democrats Behind?”  Their concerns include the belief that the American legal system will disqualify him.

Trump’s 30-point victory in Iowa and entrance polls that revealed most Republicans there would still support him even if convicted (he has denied any wrongdoing), should be the jolt Democrats need to sober up about this year’s political contest. It is time to do everything in their power to ensure President Joe Biden wins reelection.

To be fair, the Republican nomination fight is not over. The candidates now head to New Hampshire for the January 23 primary. A recent CNN/University of New Hampshire poll showed former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley only single digits behind Trump, with realistic chances for an outright victory in the Granite State.

If Haley pulls a rabbit out of the hat and wins in New Hampshire, all eyes will turn to the South Carolina primary a month later. She will likely fare much worse in her home state, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who’s pledged to keep charging ahead after eking out a second-place showing in Iowa, sees South Carolina as stronger ground for him. But unless DeSantis or Haley start winning soon and consolidating the vote, the Republican contest could effectively be over by Super Tuesday on March 5, with Trump rolling over the competition to the nomination.

That outcome may surprise some Democratic voters, but it won’t be a news flash to the Biden campaign. According to a campaign official I spoke to, they have been preparing for Biden to face Trump from the moment he announced his bid for reelection.

The Biden campaign began advertising early. In recent weeks, his campaign team has hired staff to start building out the campaign at headquarters and in key states such as South Carolina. And just this week, the Biden campaign reported raising a notable $97 million in the fourth fundraising quarter last year for the reelection effort. That cash will be used to hire additional field team members, keep television ads on the air and build a robust digital program.

Now it’s time for Democratic voters to adopt a greater sense of urgency, too. It’s not as if the case against Trump isn’t crystal clear: He has threatened to be a dictator — at least on the first day. He said he plans seek “retribution” against his enemies in a second term. Even Haley, his former UN ambassador, has said on the stump that “chaos follows him.” In contrast, Biden offers a steady hand and commitment to democratic norms.

But Biden faces hurdles, too. After the horrific October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, the president’s support for the subsequent war in Gaza, which has reportedly claimed some 23,000 lives, has hurt his standing with many young voters, whose support was key to his 2020 victory. In addition, his support appears to be flagging with some men of color, another important demographic for Biden. And of course, there is his age.

The campaign can’t make Biden younger, but the team is getting creative in how it addressed his fitness. Last week, he went to Allentown, Pennsylvania, to visit three small businesses. Instead of the typical stump speech delivered in front of a pre-set backdrop, Biden mostly shook hands and talked up his economic record with a few businesspeople and customers. The pictures and video showed an engaged president, at ease, and highlighted his ability to connect. On Monday, he did a similar event, volunteering at a Philadelphia food bank on Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

A White House aide told me to expect more events like that, with more compelling images of an engaged leader. That’s welcome news, and the campaign must do more to inspire lagging Democrats. For instance, voters are still waiting to hear the president’s second term agenda.

But the Biden campaign seems to be making the needed adjustments ahead of an apparent rematch with Trump. After Monday night’s results in Iowa, Democratic voters need to adjust to that likely reality as well.

Jamal Simmons is a longtime Democratic political and communications advisor. He was most recently communications director for Vice President Kamala Harris at the White House and is currently a CNN political commentator.

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