OPINION: Connecticut can only watch as Trump seeks return and revenge

Jan. 27—The 2024 presidential election will be the most consequential in 164 years, but Connecticut will largely be relegated to the sidelines.

Back in 1860, voters were asked to choose between four major party candidates. The divisions in the country were stark, as they are now. In that election, Abraham Lincoln, the candidate of the new antislavery Republican Party, won in the northern states and prevailed over a Democratic Party split by the slavery issue.

The southern states would not accept the election verdict. Before Lincoln had even been sworn in, seven southern states had seceded, setting the stage for the Civil War.

The outcome of the 2024 election will not result in civil war, but a victory by former President Donald Trump would severely challenge our constitutional republic.

'Vermin'

Trump characterizes the criminal indictments he faces as politically motivated, instead of self-inflicted, which they are. He suggests there may well be pay back when, if elected, he turns the Department of Justice on his political adversaries.

"Pandora's Box is open and that means that I can do it too," Trump told Lou Dobbs in an interview.

During the campaign Trump has called those who oppose him "vermin" who must be "rooted out." He talks of undocumented immigrants "poisoning the blood of our country." In the past, such fascist statements would have immediately disqualified a presidential candidate. Or a candidate for town council. But not Trump.

Trump says huge detention camps will be needed to round up and deport undocumented immigrants "by the millions per year." He has pledged to use troops for everything from sealing the southern border, to cleaning up homelessness and crime in American cities, to quelling protests.

Would Trump in a second term tolerate a news media that he charges with creating "fake news?" Would he abide by the dictates of the courts? He failed to accept the verdict of the courts when, time after time, they found that his campaign had produced no evidence of large scale election fraud.

Trump's experience as president has led him to the conclusion, should he return to office, that he cannot again select for his cabinet any individuals who would push back against him by insisting that he stay within constitutional and institutional boundaries.

This time, Trump would instead engineer an administration of sycophants, folks who would stroke his ego and feed his political strongman instincts.

A second-term Trump would not tolerate guys like the former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark Milley, who objected to and helped stop Trump's notions of sending troops into cities to quell protests. Milley called Chinese leaders after the riots of Jan. 6, 2021, dissuading them of any thoughts of taking advantage of the Trump-induced political turmoil in the U.S.

Trump took to social media to label Milley's phone call "an act so egregious that, in times gone by, the punishment would have been DEATH."

In other words, in Trump's mind, the good old days.

Shame

It is to the Republican Party's forever shame that it is again lining up behind this man. Once impeached, he should have been convicted by the Senate for violating his constitutional duty to accept the decision of the voters, and the verdict of the courts. Instead of carrying out the peaceful transfer of power to President Joe Biden, Trump fermented chaos and undermined faith in American democracy.

A Senate conviction would have been the end of Trump as a candidate. But too many Republican senators put their fears of Trump supporters and their own political ambitions ahead of their duty to the Constitution.

Now Trump is again the presumptive Republican nominee, though the primary process is in its earliest stages. Nikki Haley, the last woman standing, lost by 11 percentage points to Trump in the New Hampshire primary Tuesday. Haley vowed to fight on but has no realistic path forward.

Those of us in Connecticut are largely reduced to bystanders.

Even if Trump's challengers had made it more of a fight, the chances of Connecticut playing a role in stopping him in the primary phase were extremely remote. This is because the state primary is not until April 2. By that time, 32 states will have held their primaries or caucuses. Super Tuesday on March 5, when 15 states will vote, will be a distant memory by the time Connecticut Republicans cast ballots.

The last time a Connecticut presidential primary mattered was back in 2008, when Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were competing for the Democratic nomination. Connecticut participated in Super Tuesday then. That year it was Feb. 5. Both candidates campaigned in Connecticut before the primary, with Obama holding a rally that filled the XL Center. Obama prevailed on his way to the presidency, with 51% of the state vote, gaining 26 delegates to Clinton's 22.

After 2008, the national parties grew concerned that too many states were holding primaries too soon in the election cycle. State parties were offered incentives, in greater delegate representation, to get them to move their primaries. Connecticut did so, moving to the last week in April. The latest change, approved by the legislature, moved the primary to early April, increasing the odds the primary might matter, but not by much.

It would have been interesting to see if Connecticut Republicans, given the opportunity to reject Trump and what he stands for in a meaningful primary, would have done so. Instead, with Trump likely having the nomination locked up by April 2, I suspect it will largely be his supporters who will turn out. I have never seen voters as loyal as Trump's core supporters. They accept his lies. They see him as a victim. They ignore his gaffes. They demand no specifics on policy. Many won't let a predetermined outcome keep them home, not when they can further bolster the standing of their guy.

The April 2 primary will stand out for one reason, as the first election in the state allowing early in-person voting, thanks to a state constitutional amendment approved by voters. Early voting will start Tuesday, March 26 and end Saturday, March 30. There will be no voting on March 29, Good Friday.

Connecticut has closed primaries. If you are a Democrat thinking of switching to Republican temporarily to vote against Trump — forget about it. It's too late; that deadline has passed. Unaffiliated voters, however, have until March 15 to register with a party and vote in the primary. A voter can un-register from a party immediately after the primary.

And don't expect Connecticut to get any attention in the general election. It will be solidly in the Democratic corner. President George H.W. Bush, elected in 1988, was the last Republican presidential candidate to win in Connecticut. There will be no presidential campaigning here. And no commercials, except national ones, which may be a blessing.

The electoral votes of toss-up states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia will determine the outcome. The campaigning, and spending, will be focused there.

Connecticut is at the mercy of voters in those places to keep Trump the terrible from returning.

Paul Choiniere is the former editorial page editor of The Day, now retired. He can be reached at p.choiniere@yahoo.com.