OPINION: Democrats forecast the GOP nominee for governor

May 23—The Trump Effect still matters in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. It's less important in New Mexico, except for how badly it will hurt Republican Mark Ronchetti in the general election for governor.

How can I be sure Ronchetti, a former television weatherman, will win the nomination in the June 7 primary election?

The state Democratic Party spent all of May pounding Ronchetti while ignoring the other four Republicans running for governor. That's the best evidence of which candidate poses the greatest threat to Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham.

The Democrats' handouts have a singular tone.

"Mark Ronchetti won't keep you safe."

"The weatherman and reality TV star opposes policies that help New Mexicans thrive."

"Ronchetti and the GOP don't support moms."

Every attack is aimed at Ronchetti's kneecaps. Chop him down and Lujan Grisham might get reelected. Democrats see no need to react to the other Republican candidates.

Jay Block might as well be in the witness-protection program for all the attention he commands.

Rebecca Dow ran a terrible campaign while genuflecting to former President Donald Trump. A state representative from Truth or Consequences, Dow should have resigned her legislative office and devoted at least a year to campaigning in Albuquerque.

Dow didn't have the will to prepare to win. She made sport of Ronchetti's thin knowledge of government but never turned it to her advantage. Dow conducted herself as a regional candidate in a statewide race, riding a horse and firing a pistol in her hackneyed advertisements.

Two other Republicans also are running. Their names aren't important, as their campaigns were less effective than Dow's.

If I'm correct that Ronchetti is steamrolling toward the nomination, he will have to answer to charges of flip-flopping on Trump.

Ronchetti in 2019 publicly denigrated Trump as the "orange one."

Ronchetti reversed field in clumsy style, supporting the polarizing president before the 2020 election. By then, Ronchetti was running for the U.S. Senate, a race he lost by 6 percentage points to Democrat Ben Ray Luján.

Ronchetti was a late entry in the Senate election but a formidable one. He received more votes than Trump in New Mexico, cashing in on his likability as a weatherman.

Gov. Lujan Grisham will be happy to link Ronchetti to Trump. The former president twice lost New Mexico, and his coattails aren't long in this state.

Aside from Trump, Ronchetti's other problem in the general election would be his lack of gravitas. He must sell himself as a better alternative than Lujan Grisham, though he's managed nothing in his 48 years.

Ronchetti attempts to dismiss his critics by babbling about them with his telegenic young daughters. His tactic was a novelty during the Senate campaign. But at this stage, it's evidence Ronchetti uses his children as props to deflect attention from all he doesn't know.

He has to hope the middle ground is so disappointed with Lujan Grisham it gets behind an untested politician. That's happened before in New Mexico.

Republican Gary Johnson knocked off Democratic Gov. Bruce King in 1994. Johnson was a political novice. King was the state's longest-serving governor.

Everything broke just right for Johnson, thanks in part to Green Party candidate Roberto Mondragón.

Johnson defeated King by 10 percentage points. Mondragón received 10.3 percent of the vote, draining support from King.

Mondragón might have been a spoiler who denied King a fourth term as governor. More likely, Johnson would have won a one-on-one match-up with King, whose popularity had dipped. Mondragón's presence made the race easier for Johnson to win.

No third-party candidate will help Ronchetti siphon votes from Lujan Grisham. To pull the upset, he has to find a way to move indifferent voters to his side.

Based on the intensity of the Democratic Party's reaction to Ronchetti, the Republicans have settled on the right candidate. For all his flaws, Ronchetti could turn the general election into a horse race. Neither Block nor Dow could make that claim, at least not with sincerity.

That a television personality is the Republicans' best hope for governor speaks poorly of their party. They fielded no one with political experience who could outpoint Ronchetti.

Candidates with celebrity status probably lose more often than they win. For every Ronald Reagan who broke through in a governor's race, there is a Lynn Swann who didn't.

Still, if Lujan Grisham could handpick her opponent, the choice would be obvious. She would prefer a sinking Dow to a glib weatherman.

Ringside Seat is an opinion column about people, politics and news. Contact Milan Simonich at msimonich@sfnewmexican.com or 505-986-3080.