OPINION: It might have taken a rocket scientist to beat Heinrich

Mar. 28—Democratic U.S. Sen. Martin Heinrich looks safe. He won't have to run for reelection against a rocket scientist.

I speak of Ant Thornton, who holds a Ph.D. from the School of Aeronautics and Astronautics at Purdue University. Brainy but plainspoken, Thornton might have been the only politician capable of enlivening New Mexico's moribund Republican Party by challenging Heinrich.

It won't happen. "I'm not interested in running for anything at this point," Thornton told me.

That's good news for Heinrich. His chances of winning a third term are solid to begin with, but they're better with charismatic Thornton as a bystander.

Thornton spent 14 months campaigning for lieutenant governor, an office with more pomp than power. He won the Republican nomination last year, joining gubernatorial nominee Mark Ronchetti on a ticket that lost the general election.

That defeat might have spelled the end of professional politics for Ronchetti. A former television weatherman, Ronchetti not long ago was a fresh face for state Republicans. He now seems unelectable, having dropped races for the U.S. Senate in 2020 and then governor.

In contrast, 67-year-old Thornton enhanced his visibility by running in a statewide campaign. A Black man who bolted the Democratic Party 12 years ago, Thornton could have been the Republicans' best hope to showcase diversity in their party in 2024.

Thornton knows the state after a 27-year career at Sandia National Laboratories. His residency in the Albuquerque area would have been another plus. A third of the votes in statewide elections come from Bernalillo County.

He has set aside politics to try solving a chronic problem. Thornton is trying to launch a company capable of desalinating brackish water to make it usable. If it can be done, New Mexico will never again have a water shortage, Thornton said.

State Republicans are in a drought of their own. In addition to governor, the GOP last year was swept in statewide elections.

It lost races for attorney general, state treasurer, secretary of state, land commissioner, two seats on the state Supreme Court and two more on the Court of Appeals. The GOP failed to field a candidate for state auditor.

With Thornton not in the picture, the GOP has few high-profile possibilities for the Senate.

Retired state Supreme Court Justice Judith Nakamura could be formidable if only she would run. "She'd be a great candidate," said Jay Block, a Sandoval County commissioner.

Former Gov. Susana Martinez is a proven vote-getter who could raise millions of dollars in a Senate campaign. But Martinez's second term, concluded in 2018, was mired in gridlock and scandal.

For instance, Martinez embarrassed herself by refusing to explain her vetoes of 10 bills authored by Democrats. The state Supreme Court ruled Martinez was out of line, and all the measures became law.

A loud, boozy party Martinez held at a downtown Santa Fe hotel led to calls for police intervention. Martinez received national news coverage for calling a dispatcher to say the cops should stand down.

Former Lt. Gov. John Sanchez has none of Martinez's fundraising power, but he would offer a recognizable name. But Sanchez's lack of appeal in statewide contests is impossible to ignore. He won only when he was on the ticket with Martinez.

Democrat Bill Richardson trounced Sanchez in the 2002 election for governor. Sanchez announced his candidacy for the U.S. Senate in 2012, but dropped out before the Republican primary. He'd created no spark, and his campaign bank account was anemic.

Former state Rep. Rebecca Dow would be an underdog if she resurfaced. A resident of rural Truth or Consequences, Dow labeled herself as the front-runner for last year's Republican gubernatorial nomination. Ronchetti got more votes in Bernalillo County than Dow did in the entire state.

Block said he is interested in running for the Senate. "I'm thinking about it. I'll be talking to some people to get their advice — supporters, donors, elected officials."

Block's record in statewide competition is unimpressive. He finished fourth last year in the five-way Republican primary for governor. He ran third in his home county of Sandoval.

Barring a scandal, Heinrich's biggest obstacle to reelection is whether senator is the job he really wants. He would have a harder time winning another term next year if he's preparing for a gubernatorial run in 2026.

That aside, no Republican will have a chance against Heinrich without a sizable bank balance.

Money would have been a problem for Thornton. "It would take $6 million, and that's a tough row to hoe in New Mexico," he said.

Republicans should already have two or three candidates for the Senate. They will claim it's early, and say they're confident of ousting Heinrich.

The GOP nominated a tomato can the last time Heinrich was on the ballot. Almost six years later, another laugher looms.

Ringside Seat is an opinion column about people, politics and news. Contact Milan Simonich at msimonich@sfnewmexican.com or 505-986-3080.