Opinion: Nikki Haley shows why she has an edge over Ron DeSantis

Editor’s Note: Patrick T. Brown is a fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, a conservative think tank and advocacy group based in Washington, DC. He is also a former senior policy adviser to Congress’ Joint Economic Committee. Follow him on Twitter. The views expressed in this piece are his own. View more opinion on CNN.

With the days dwindling until the Iowa caucuses, both Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley probably wish they could channel some of University of Iowa basketball star Caitlin Clark’s buzzer-beating magic. And quite literally so in DeSantis’ case, as he opened his town hall on Thursday by unfurling a Clark jersey.

But if DeSantis and Haley’s back-to-back CNN town halls showed two candidates executing their game plans, they did so knowing they are facing a frontrunner who seems to be operating under the logic of Calvinball, where the normal laws of political gravity don’t apply. Indictments, skipping out on debates, erratic statements and everything else have only pushed former President Donald Trump’s polling numbers higher.

That’s certainly why DeSantis spent time on the attack against Trump, just as he did in a December town hall, trying to drive a wedge between Iowa social conservatives and the former president. When CNN’s Kaitlan Collins asked him if Trump was pro-life, DeSantis replied directly: “Of course not … When you’re saying that pro-life protections are a terrible thing, by definition, you are not pro-life.”

But the Florida governor’s tone and tenor will never be mistaken for a happy warrior, and his performance seemed unlikely to unlock a register that would resonate with voters any more than they have to date. He had a laudable answer on helping families afford housing, but the sole moment that might catch voters’ attention as novel was his call to eliminate the IRS in favor of a flat tax, which would surely result in a massive tax hike for low-income Americans.

Haley, with her eyes set on New Hampshire, emphasized her foreign policy chops and her wish to paint a “generational” contrast between herself and the former president. She played the greatest hits of Republican foreign policy — “peace through strength,” tough on China, support for Israel — and dinged Trump, as well as President Joe Biden, for high levels of government spending. Whether or not Republican voters are eager for the hard medicine of fiscal discipline after four years of a relatively profligate Trump administration remains to be seen.

More importantly, she demonstrated a defter pivot foot than the Florida governor, turning questions about her record or criticisms of Trump or Biden into biographical vignettes. Her recent flub, omitting the role of slavery in igniting the Civil War, became a chance to yet again recall her experience dealing with the removal of the Confederate flag from the grounds of the South Carolina statehouse. Asked about being a woman and a mother, she spoke warmly about being motivated by her children and expressed confidence America was ready for a female president. She even tied her personal biography with her political message, telling voters, “It is time to move past President Trump, and it is time to start focusing on how to strengthen America, and do this for our kids and our grandkids.”

As she has before, the former South Carolina governor made the argument that Trump’s mercurial temperament would make America less secure on the world stage and less stable at home. She also made a nakedly political case that she would be more electable than either Trump or DeSantis, projecting a double-digit win that would usher in a Republican trifecta and make it easier for her to achieve conservative priorities.

Some Republican voters may yet be persuaded by the strategic case for nominating someone with potential cross-partisan appeal. But at this late stage in the game, the overriding dynamic governing the primary is Trump’s vise grip on at least a plurality, if not an outright majority, of GOP primary votes.

As was the case during Thursday night’s town halls, the stakes will be highest for DeSantis, who has gone all-in on Iowa, in the final pre-caucus debate coming up next Wednesday on CNN. If his campaign falls short of first place, or even a closely fought second, there will be questions about his future in the race, and calls for him to drop out and endorse Haley. In need of a political Hail Mary, DeSantis executed as well as could be expected, but his performance seems unlikely to have sparked a fire.

Haley, on the other hand, can be content to play the long game, hoping her surprisingly good poll numbers in New Hampshire hold before the campaign trail turns south to her home state. Her performance Thursday night — offering fairly traditional GOP orthodoxy with a blend of compelling personal narrative and present-yet-understated identity politics — may offer GOP voters who are seeking an alternative to Trump their most likely vehicle. The key question, one that Iowa will shed some light on come January 15, is how many of those voters actually exist.

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