Orange, red, orange — Vanderburgh County's COVID-19 numbers change again

Thomas B. Langhorne, Evansville Courier & Press
·4 min read

EVANSVILLE, Ind. — It can be hard to gauge COVID-19 progress when testing and case data filters in late as it gets processed, but Vanderburgh County's numbers improved enough last week to change its "color."

One week after the county fell along with Warrick and Posey counties into "red," the highest level of severity on Indiana's COVID-19 severity map, it went back to "orange" in Wednesday's weekly update. Orange is the second-highest of four levels of severity.

Orange to red and back to orange again. Joe Gries has seen too many hopeful decreases in cases and worrisome increases — too many waves, surges and plunges — to diverge from the message he has been offering since the pandemic began nearly two years ago.

"There’s more cases each day. It's part of every day. It kind of is what it is," said Gries, the Vanderburgh County Health Department's administrator.

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"There are ways that people can protect themselves. The biggest option is by getting vaccinated, and we highly recommend everybody go get vaccinated and — if you have been vaccinated, go out and get your booster shot. We recommend masks in congregate settings, and that’s where we stand."

The state's COVID-19 data doesn't lend itself to bold pronouncements at any rate.

The severity map draws from testing positivity rate data that is nine to 15 days old — a methodology the Indiana State Department of Health employs, it says, "to ensure complete testing information has been received." In the tradeoff between more recent COVID-19 data and more accurate COVID-19 data, the state chooses more accurate.

Additional data for past days can continue to filter in, ultimately changing the numbers the state relied upon — but it does look like things are improving in Vanderburgh County.

The state assigns its color shades to counties using a seven-day moving average of the positivity rate for all COVID-19 tests — the percentage of people tested who come up positive — plus less dated numbers on weekly cases per 100,000 residents.

Vanderburgh County began December with a seven-day positivity rate of 15.5%, and 15% or greater lands a county in the red. But that moving average has steadily shrunk since then, landing at just above 12% on Saturday, the most recent date available.

The county did record a 6% increase in cases last week from the week before. But that modest increase brings a halt, at least temporarily, to the explosive growth in cases that Vanderburgh County had seen since the final week of October. The previous week's week-to-week increase was 51%.

More: Decision to drop COVID-19 mask mandate in Evansville, Vanderburgh was based on old data

A small change in methodology shows just how malleable the state's COVID-19 data can be.

Vanderburgh County's 6% increase was arrived at by counting weekly cases Monday to Sunday. But counting Saturday as the end of the data week shows a 21% decrease in cases last week, according to an Indiana University Northwest analysis.

Next week's COVID-19 severity map will be published Wednesday on the state health department's coronavirus dashboard.

COVID-19 cases in Evansville-area counties

Overall tallies as of Thursday:

  • Vanderburgh County has reported 36,001 COVID-19 cases in all during the pandemic and 503 deaths.

  • Warrick County has reported 12,801 COVID-19 cases in all during the pandemic and 196 deaths.

  • Gibson County has reported 7,432 COVID-19 cases in all during the pandemic and 120 deaths.

  • Posey County has reported 4,253 COVID-19 cases in all during the pandemic and 45 deaths.

Deaconess Health System reported new data Wednesday illustrating that COVID-19 continues to strike unvaccinated individuals the hardest.

Deaconess reported 94 hospitalized COVID-19 patients, of which 84% are "not vaccinated." There are 43 infected patients in the ICU at Deaconess, the local health system reported. All but two are unvaccinated. Twenty-seven coronavirus patients are on ventilators, Deaconess reported — 25 of them unvaccinated.

The numbers include all Deaconess hospitals and The Women's Hospital.

Ascension St. Vincent Evansville hasn't regularly released patient vaccination data, but the data it has released showed similar trends.

Thomas B. Langhorne can be reached by email at tom.langhorne@courierpress.com.

This article originally appeared on Evansville Courier & Press: COVID map: Vanderburgh County back into orange week after going red