Orban to Fold on Sweden’s NATO Bid After Overplaying Hand

Zoltan Simon
·4 min read
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(Bloomberg) -- Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is preparing his lawmakers to ratify Sweden’s accession to NATO after Turkey’s parliamentary approval effectively left Budapest as the lone holdout to the military alliance’s enlargement.

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Under pressure to act after leaving the ratification protocol languishing in the Hungarian parliament for more than a year, Orban told North Atlantic Treaty Organization Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Wednesday that he’ll urge its approval “at the first possible opportunity,” according to a post on the social media site X. Stoltenberg, for his part, said he was heartened by Orban’s apparent commitment.

“I welcome the clear support of the Prime Minister and his government for #Sweden’s #NATO membership,” Stoltenberg said on X. “I look forward to the ratification as soon as parliament reconvenes.”

On Tuesday, the Hungarian prime minister invited Swedish counterpart Ulf Kristersson to Budapest hours before the Turkish assembly ratified Sweden’s bid, which was seen as a face-saving way out of yet another standoff he’s created with European peers. Orban and his ministers have in the past accused Stockholm of undermining bilateral relations by repeatedly criticizing Hungary for democratic backsliding.

“This is definitely a sharp turn and one that aims to prepare Hungary’s ratification of Sweden’s bid,” Agoston Samuel Mraz, the head of Nezopont, a policy think-tank that advises Orban’s government, said about the invitation.

Read More: Turkey Approves Sweden NATO Bid, Leaving Hungary as Holdout

Orban faced renewed pressure from western allies in NATO and the European Union to approve Sweden’s bid following Turkey’s move. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s office may publish the parliamentary legislation in the Official Gazette as soon as Wednesday, making Turkey’s ratification official.

Hungary’s parliament is expected to reconvene on Feb. 26 from its winter recess, Magyar Nemzet newspaper reported on Wednesday, citing the leadership of Orban’s ruling party.

While Kristersson has yet to comment on how he intends to respond to the invitation, Orban’s suggestion in a post on X that he wanted to “negotiate” Sweden’s accession was cold-shouldered by Stockholm. Foreign minister Tobias Billstrom, speaking to reporters on Tuesday, said there is “no reason to negotiate” with Budapest.

NATO chief Stoltenberg, UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron and Germany’s Foreign Office were among those calling on Orban to act swiftly, with Berlin saying it was “high time” for Hungary to ratify Sweden’s accession. The enlargement is expected to reinforce the alliance’s northern reach and improve its ability to defend an eastern flank that doubled in length following Finland’s admission last April.

The two Nordic nations, which had previously shunned membership in military alliances, applied to join shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine almost two years ago.

It’s not just Sweden’s bid that’s put Orban in the cross-hairs. The Hungarian leader also blocked the EU’s €50 billion ($54.4 billion) aid package for Ukraine at a summit last month, forcing another gathering of its 27 premiers in Brussels next week to either convince Orban to desist or to circumvent him. This week, Hungary also said it opposed revamping an EU facility to ensure a steadier supply of weapons to Ukraine.

The obstructionism has earned Orban, considered the most Russia-friendly leader in the EU, the wrath of its western allies. But it has also allowed the government to extract concessions and scored him the respect of nationalist politicians around the world, including Donald Trump, who has repeatedly called Hungary’s prime minister a “great leader” during his campaign to secure Republican presidential nomination in the US.

But there’s a sense that Orban, a five-term leader of a nation of fewer than 10 million people, could have overplayed his hand on Sweden.

Hungary’s government submitted the ratification text to parliament in 2022 and then let it languish, eroding the goodwill of allies. All the while Orban kept telling them that Hungary would ratify before Turkey, a pledge that’s now soured.

Unlike Turkey, which has conditioned its support of Sweden’s bid on a crackdown on what it labels Kurdish terrorist groups in Sweden as well as the procurement of F-16 fighter jets from the US, Hungary has been less forthcoming about its reasons.

Read More: What It Takes to Join NATO, a Club Refreshed by Putin

Inviting Sweden’s premier now, unprompted, is a sign that Orban is looking for a way out of a bind.

“The Swedish premier needs to just come here and have a meeting” to open the way for Hungary’s ratification, the political analyst Mraz said. “If he doesn’t, then that’s a risk he’s taking.”

--With assistance from Niclas Rolander, Natalia Drozdiak and Selcan Hacaoglu.

(Updates with comments by Hungarian premier and NATO chief in second and third paragraphs, parliament’s opening session in seventh.)

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