Will Oregon go Republican? GOP surge at state level shines a light on what voters want.

When I first heard rumors that a Republican might have a shot at becoming governor of Oregon, I figured it was something The Onion concocted.

Turns out, it's a strong possibility. What’s happening in Oregon is echoed in states around the country, where citizens sick of failed Democratic policies at the state and federal level are leading to the rise of some surprising candidates.

I’m an Oregonian by birth and spent my childhood there. Anyone who knows me for more than five minutes learns quickly that I adore my home state.

Let me clarify: I love the magical forests, dreamy Pacific Ocean and awe-inspiring mountains.

The politics? Not so much.

When people find out that I (a conservative) am from Oregon, they look at me like a living oxymoron.

The last Republican to serve as governor was reelected in 1982, when I was a toddler. In the past four decades, Oregon has cemented a reputation as one of the most liberal states in the country.

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Why the possibility of a change now?

The state could move in a new direction for a couple of reasons. A three-way race among Democrat Tina Kotek, Democrat-turned independent Betsy Johnson and Republican Christine Drazan has split support on the left. Drazan is up about 3 points in the polls.

That’s not the only reason. Even die-hard Oregon liberals have gotten fed up with spiking crime, rampant homelessness and increased drug use.

The fact that in Oregon it’s more legally acceptable to use heroin or cocaine than it is to get a plastic bag at the grocery store has mobilized strong support from the likes of Nike co-founder Phil Knight, who has donated millions to the other candidates to make sure Kotek doesn’t win.

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Drazan has made tackling crime and homelessness key to her campaign – issues that polls show are top of mind for Oregonians. Decades of liberal leadership have not addressed these problems.

In fact, they’ve only gotten worse.

Disconnect on economy, abortion

Republicans aren’t resonating only with Oregon residents on the issues. That’s true across the nation.

The latest Harvard-CAPS Harris poll shows that Americans perceive Republicans as connecting with voters on citizens’ three main concerns of inflation, immigration and crime. Voters see Democrats as focused on the U.S. Capitol riot, women’s rights and the environment.

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That’s a calculated move by Democrats and President Joe Biden, who hope to turn attention away from high prices and a struggling economy by stressing issues like protecting democracy and access to abortion.

Biden, in fact, was in Oregon on Saturday to campaign for the struggling Kotek. But the president demonstrated just how out of touch he is with voters’ concerns when he announced, in between licking an ice cream cone, that "our economy is strong as hell."

Most Americans, who are very aware of the pain to their pocketbooks, aren’t likely to buy that, and independents appear to be inching more toward the Republicans.

A recent New York Times/Siena College Poll found that Republicans running for Congress have the advantage heading into the final weeks before the election, largely on issues related to the economy. Voters most concerned with inflation and the economy favor Republicans 64% to 30%.

The poll highlights how Republicans now have a 10-point lead among independent voters. Among self-identified independent women, that shift is even larger, from backing Democrats in September by 14 percentage points to favoring Republicans by 18 points now.

That’s despite Democrats’ best efforts to scare women into voting for them based on Roe V. Wade alone. It turns out voters who may favor abortion rights care even more about the economy.

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It’s about more than election denial

Another Western state getting a lot of attention is Arizona, and the match-up between Republican Kari Lake and Democrat Katie Hobbs. Lake holds a slim lead in the polls, and it seems to be driving the left – and much of the news media – wild.

Lake is almost always slapped with the label “election denier” (something conveniently left out in most articles about Georgia Democrat Stacey Abrams, who refused to concede the 2018 governor’s race).

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While Lake has said troublesome things about the 2020 election, she stands for much more than that and is clearly resonating with Arizona voters, who put the economy and inflation as their No. 1 concern. Lake has also made strong border security central to her campaign.

Hobbs has taken a strong stance against school choice and has promised to roll back the state’s recent expansion of education savings accounts to all parents. And her views on abortion are extreme – she has refused to support any restrictions on abortion, at any point in a pregnancy.

Lake holds very different views on both issues.

So while Democrats, and even some conservatives like Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney, have scolded voters not to support Lake based on her election comments alone, Arizonans should be forgiven if they have other concerns on their mind when they cast their vote.

The left wants us to view this election as a moral imperative to stand for democracy and women’s rights, but the fact remains the country is most concerned about the issues directly in front of them, whether homelessness or high gas prices.

And if Oregonians elect their first Republican governor in decades, I’ll be cheering from afar.

Ingrid Jacques is a columnist at USA TODAY. Contact her at ijacques@usatoday.com or on Twitter: @Ingrid_Jacques 

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Oregon governor race: Republican Christine Drazan is gaining momentum