Oryx analysts: Russia could run out of combat vehicles in six months at current loss rate
At the current monthly loss rate, Moscow has a six-month reserve of combat vehicles, far beyond a sustainable level for Russian forces, Forbes reported on Feb. 4.
As production of new armored vehicles continues to lag, the Russians still mostly ride in older Cold War-vintage vehicles they’ve pulled out of long-term storage.
Read also: Russia ramps up arms production, prepares for extended war — The Telegraph
In 2022 and 2023, the Russians lost about 80 armored personnel carriers (APCs) per month, according to Oryx analysts. If that rate of loss continues into 2024 and production of new APCs remains steady at between 30 and 40 per month, the Kremlin will run out of fighting vehicles in about two years.
But the Russians are losing vehicles faster than ever. On each of the 705 days since Russia's full-scale agression, Russian forces on average have lost 19 tanks, combat vehicles, howitzers or other heavy weapons either destroyed, abandoned or captured.
They lost at least 54 on Feb. 3. Another 16 were damaged, making it one of the worst days of the war for Moscow.
Read also: Russian mass surrender in Zaporizhzhya sector after inhumane treatment and heavy losses
“It’s the most I've ever found in a day,” said open-source analyst Andrew Perpetua, who tallies vehicle losses and publishes a daily list.
Ukrainian losses were lighter: nine vehicles destroyed, abandoned or captured and another 21 damaged.
Worse for Russia is the fact that its losses included 16 tanks and a staggering 29 combat vehicles and APCs, while Ukraine’s losses were mostly trucks and civilian vehicles the military apparently used for supply runs. The Ukrainians lost two tanks and a single APC.
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In the most violent sector of the front, around Avdiivka, the Russians advanced a hundred yards in the south and three-quarters of a mile in the north on one of their costliest days of the war.
No rational and moral commander would trade 54 armored vehicles and, according to the Ukrainian General Staff, more than 800 troops for a few hundred yards.
An analyst who goes by @HighMarsed scours satellite imagery in order to track Russia’s stocks of old vehicles. In December, they concluded the Kremlin had reactivated 1,081 of its pre-war inventory of 4,811 old APC fighting vehicles. But of the remaining 3,730, at least 765 were “visibly broken beyond repair.”
According to the Ukrainian General Staff, Russia has lost 11,822 armored personnel carriers and 6,348 tanks since Feb. 24, 2022.
The Ukrainian military has also successfully destroyed one Russian 2S4 Tulpan self-propelled heavy mortar, 18 enemy tanks, 27 armored personnel carriers, 28 artillery systems, one anti-tank missile system, one air defense system, 14 vehicles, two units of special equipment, and 242 drones of various types, Commander of the Tavria operational-strategic group, Brig. Gen. Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, reported on Telegram on Jan. 25.
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Read the original article on The New Voice of Ukraine
