Is the Oscars' Best Picture race already locked up for 1917?

Brendan Morrow

Weeks ahead of the 2020 Oscars, the Best Picture race already seems to be over. But is it, really?

After a big win at the Golden Globes, 1917 this past weekend cemented its status as Oscar frontrunner by taking the top prize at the Producers Guild of America Awards, one of the most reliable Best Picture bellwethers. The PGA winner has lined up with Best Picture at the Oscars about 70 percent of the time, IndieWire notes.

Just as important as what won at the PGA Awards was what lost, though: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, which was considered the Best Picture frontrunner weeks ago. But Quentin Tarantino's film has been taking hit after hit, especially after not earning an editing nomination at the Oscars; it's rare for a film to take Best Picture without a nomination in this category.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood also didn't win the top prize of Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at Sunday's Screen Actors Guild Awards, despite a star-studded cast that many thought would provide it an easy victory. Instead, SAG chose a dark horse: Parasite. With this win, Parasite surges into a strong second place in the Best Picture competition behind 1917, and The New York Times argues it's now a two-way race between these films. Working against Parasite is the fact that no foreign-language film has ever won Best Picture, though that was also true at the SAG Awards until this year.

All eyes now turn to the Directors Guild of America Awards and the BAFTAs, where Once Upon a Time in Hollywood could regain momentum, Parasite could prove to be an even bigger threat, or 1917 could continue its domination. For now, the consensus is that Best Picture is 1917's to lose after its back-to-back Golden Globes and PGA victories. But Parasite is quite well positioned for a history-making upset.

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