Oscars Predictions: Best International Feature – Tunisia’s ‘The Man Who Sold His Skin’ Surges Before Voting

Clayton Davis
·8 min read

Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars from Film Awards Editor Clayton Davis. Following Academy Awards history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar predictions are updated regularly with the current year's contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. Eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and will be displayed next to revision date.

To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE COLLECTIVE

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2021 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

UPDATED: Mar. 4, 2021

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: Denmark has dominated the season with “Another Round,” even presenting itself as a film that can show up in other categories like best actor (Mads Mikkelsen). While “Honeyland” made history last year when it popped up in documentary and international feature, that’s more of the exception than the rule. They usually aren’t very receptive to docs in this category which doesn’t bode well for “Collective” and “The Mole Agent,” but perhaps a new trend is forming. “Two of Us” and “La Llorona” seem safe for spots while many are over the moon for “I’m No Longer Here,” “The Man Who Sold His Skin” and “Quo Vadis, Aida.” We should never think that the Academy can provide a surprise exclusion or two.

WATCH RECOMMENDATIONS BEFORE VOTING: All of them? Yes, all of them before you vote.

PRECURSORS LEADER:
“Another Round” (Denmark)
Awards Circuit Winners Chart (2020-2021)
2021 Awards Season Calendar

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:

  1. "Another Round" (Denmark)
    "Druk" - Danish (language)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 12 nominations, 3 wins, 57 submissions

    DIRECTOR: Thomas Vinterberg
    SYNOPSIS: Four friends, all high school teachers, test a theory that they will improve their lives by maintaining a constant level of alcohol in their blood.
    STARRING: Mads Mikkelsen, Thomas Bo Larsen, Magnus Millang

  2. "Two Of Us" (France)
    "Deux" - French, German (languages)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 40 nominations, 12 wins, 66 submissions

    DIRECTOR: Filippo Meneghetti
    SYNOPSIS: Pensioners Nina and Madeleine have hidden their deep and passionate love for many decades, but their bond is put to the test when they are suddenly unable to move freely between each other's apartments.
    STARRING: Barbara Sukowa, Martine Chevallier, Léa Drucker

  3. "Quo Vadis, Aida?" (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
    "Quo Vadis, Aida?" - Bosnian, Dutch, English, Serbian (languages)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 1 nomination, 1 win, 19 submissions
    –
    DIRECTOR: Jasmila Žbanić
    SYNOPSIS: Aida is a translator for the UN in the small town of Srebrenica. When the Bosnian Serb army takes over the town, her family is among the thousands of citizens looking for shelter in the UN camp.
    STARRING: Jasna Djuricic, Izudin Bajrovic, Boris Ler

  4. "The Man Who Sold His Skin" (Tunisia)
    "L'Homme qui a vendu sa peau" - Arabic, English, Franch (languages)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Zero nominations, 27 submissions

    DIRECTOR: Kaouther Ben Hania
    SYNOPSIS: The journey of Sam Ali, a Syrian man who fled to Lebanon to escape the Syrian war, hoping to eventually join his lover in Paris.
    STARRING: Yahya Mahayni, Dea Liane, Koen De Bouw

  5. "La Llorona" (Guatemala)
    "La Llorona" - Spanish, Kaqchikel (languages)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated, 2 submissions

    DIRECTOR: Jayro Bustamante
    SYNOPSIS: An aging paranoid war criminal, protected by his faithful wife, faces death while being haunted by the ghosts of his past.
    STARRING: María Mercedes Coroy, Sabrina De La Hoz, Margarita Kenéfic

NEXT IN LINE CONTENDERS:

  1. "I'm No Longer Here" (Mexico)
    "Ya no estoy aquí" - Spanish (language)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 9 nominations, 1 win, 52 submissions

    DIRECTOR: Fernando Frias
    SYNOPSIS: In Monterrey, Mexico, a young street gang spends their days dancing to slowed-down cumbia and attending parties. After a mix-up with a local cartel, their leader is forced to migrate to the U.S. but quickly longs to return home.
    STARRING: Daniel Garcia, Xueming Angelina Chen, Sophia Metcalf

  2. "Collective" (Romania)
    "Colectiv" - Romanian (language)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated, 35 submissions
    –
    DIRECTOR: Alexander Nanau
    SYNOPSIS: Director Alexander Nanau follows a crack team of investigators at the Romanian newspaper Gazeta Sporturilor as they try to uncover a vast health-care fraud that enriched moguls and politicians and led to the deaths of innocent citizens.
    STARRING: Razvan Lutac, Mirela Neag, Catalin Tolontan

  3. "Night of the Kings" (Ivory Coast)
    "La Nuit des rois" - Dyula, French (languages)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 1 nomination, 1 win, 2 submissions

    DIRECTOR: Philippe Lacôte
    SYNOPSIS: A young man is sent to "La Maca", a prison of Ivory Coast in the middle of the forest ruled by its prisoners. With the red moon rising, he is designated by the Boss to be the new "Roman" and must tell a story to the other prisoners.
    STARRING: Denis Lavant, Issaka Sawadogo, Steve Tientcheu

  4. "Charlatan" (Czech Republic)
    "Šarlatán" - Czech (language)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 3 nominations, 1 win, 26 submissions
    –
    DIRECTOR: Agnieszka Holland
    SYNOPSIS: The breathtaking story of a man gifted with exceptional abilities set against the background of the events of the totalitarian fifties.
    STARRING: Ivan Trojan, Josef Trojan, Juraj Loj

  5. "A Sun" (Taiwan)
    "陽光普照 (Yángguāng Pǔzhào)" - Mandarin (language)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 3 nominations, 1 win, 45 submissions
    –
    DIRECTOR: Chung Mong-hong
    SYNOPSIS: A family of four fractures under the weight of unmet expectations, unexpected tragedy, and uncompromising pride.
    STARRING: Chien-Ho Wu, Yi-wen Chen, Samantha Shu-Chin Ko

TOP-TIER AWARDS CONTENDERS:

  1. "The Mole Agent" (Chile)
    "El agente topo" - Spanish (language)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 2 nominations, 1 win, 24 submissions

    DIRECTOR: Maite Alberdi
    SYNOPSIS: A private investigator in Chile hires someone to work as a mole at a retirement home where a client of his suspects the caretakers of elder abuse.
    STARRING: Romulo Aitken, Sergio Chamy

  2. "Sun Children" (Iran)
    "خورشید (Khōrshīd)" - Persian (language)

    OSCAR HISTORY:: 3 nominations, 2 wins, 25 submissions
    –
    DIRECTOR: Majid Majidi
    SYNOPSIS: 12-year-old Ali and his three friends.Together they work hard to survive and support their families. In a turn of events that seems miraculous, Ali is entrusted to find hidden treasure underground.
    STARRING: Ali Nassirian, Javad Ezati, Tannaz Tabatabaei

  3. "Dear Comrades!" (Russia)
    "Дорогие товарищи! (Dorogie tovarishchi!)" - Russian (language)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 7 nominations, 1 win, 27 submissions
    –
    DIRECTOR: Andrey Konchalovskiy
    SYNOPSIS: When the communist government raises food prices in 1962, the rebellious workers from the small industrial town of Novocherkassk go on strike. The massacre which then ensues is seen through the eyes of a devout party activist.
    STARRING: Yuliya Vysotskaya, Vladislav Komarov, Andrey Gusev

  4. "Hope" (Norway)
    "Håp" - Norwegian, Swedish (languages)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 5 nominations, 42 submissions

    DIRECTOR: Maria Sødahl
    SYNOPSIS: The relationship between artist-partners Tomas and Anja is put to the test after Anja gets a life-threatening diagnosis.
    STARRING: Andrea Bræin Hovig, Stellan Skarsgård, Terje Auli

  5. "Better Days" (Hong Kong)
    "少年的你 - Mandarin (language)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 2 nominations, 39 submissions
    –
    DIRECTOR: Derek Tsang
    SYNOPSIS: A bullied teenage girl forms an unlikely friendship with a mysterious young man who protects her from her assailants, all while she copes with the pressures of her final examinations.
    STARRING: Dongyu Zhou, Jackson Yee, Fang Yin

† = no release date scheduled / could be delayed / may not be eligible
†† = could be campaigned in the lead or supporting categories / original or adapted screenplay categories

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The biggest Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each.

Academy Awards Predictions (All Categories)

2021 Golden Globes Predictions (Film)

2021 SAG Awards Predictions (Film)

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners are selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). 17 branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The Oscars are scheduled for Sunday, April 25, 2021.

About the Golden Globes

The Golden Globes Awards, hosted by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, is held annually with 93 members since 1944. The group recognizes excellence in film and television across drama and comedy or musical categories. Damien Chazelle’s “La La Land” holds the record for the most awards won by a single film with seven. Milos Forman’s “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest” and Alan Parker’s “Midnight Express” are next in line with six each. Robert Altman’s “Nashville” has the record for most nominations received by a film with 11 while Colin Higgins’ “Foul Play,” Francis Ford Coppola’s “The Godfather Part III” and Mike Nichols’ “Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?” share the record for receiving the most nominations and not winning a single award at seven.

  • The Golden Globes are scheduled for Feb. 28, 2021.

About the SAG Awards

The Screen Actors Guild Awards, hosted by SAG-AFTRA, is an annual award show that has become one of the most important and key indicators for the Oscars. Four films have won the most SAG awards with three: 1999’s “American Beauty,” 2002’s “Chicago,” 2011’s “The Help” and 2017’s “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri.” Three movies have been nominated for the most SAG awards with five: 1998’s “Shakespeare in Love,” “Chicago” and 2008’s “Doubt.”

  • The SAG Awards are scheduled to take place on Sunday, April 4, 2021

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