Oscars Predictions: Best Supporting Actor – Can Jamie Dornan Find ‘Everlasting Love’ from the Actors’ Branch?

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Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar and Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.

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2022 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

UPDATED: Nov 26, 2021

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: There’s no agreed-upon frontrunner, keyword being “agreed upon,” at least with critics and pundits. In races like supporting actors, the actors’ branch can lean more towards rewarding the career than the performance itself. That helps someone like Ciarán Hinds, who delivers a marvelous performance in Kenneth Branagh’s “Belfast,” primarily since he’s worked with many in the business. His co-star Jamie Dornan should be able to crack the lineup accordingly, especially with “Everlasting Love” being one of the feel-good, cheerful moments in any film this year.

The work of Oscar-winner J.K. Simmons (“Whiplash”) in Aaron Sorkin’s “Being the Ricardos” is one of the best casting efforts this year, and his work is utterly memorable and could be an easy checkbox for the film. But, unfortunately, it’s still unclear how far Jared Leto’s ballsy turn in “House of Gucci” will take him in the race or if the Academy will be able to choose between either of the men from Jane Campion’s “The Power of the Dog,” which has Jesse Plemons entering the top five this week for the first time since the year-in-advanced predictions.

I’m also looking out for those Globe, SAG and Critics Choice nominees that may come up short at the Oscars, like past snubbed performers Idris Elba (“Beasts of No Nation”), Michael Shannon (“99 Homes”) and Daniel Bruhl (“Rush”). Of course, Ben Affleck could ultimately fit that bill for “The Last Duel” if voters come to bat for Ridley Scott’s period epic.

Will screen time matter for Bradley Cooper for “Licorice Pizza,” or can any of the boys from “Don’t Look Up” get swept in with Leonardo DiCaprio? The most likely candidates seem to be Jonah Hill or Mark Rylance.

And then there’s “Nightmare Alley,” which will offer up a few options but with different narrative moments on the screen to shine.

Oscar nominations voting begins on Thursday, Jan. 27, 2022, and will end on Tuesday, Feb. 1, 2022. The official Academy Awards nominations will be announced on Tuesday, Feb. 8, 2022, with the ceremony taking place on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022.

Awards Season Calendar (2021-2022)

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AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:

RANK

ACTOR

FILM

STUDIO

1

Ciarán Hinds

“Belfast”

Focus Features

2

J.K. Simmons

“Being the Ricardos”

Amazon Studios

3

Jamie Dornan

“Belfast”

Focus Features

4

Jared Leto

“House of Gucci”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

5

Jesse Plemons

“The Power of the Dog”

Netflix

NEXT IN LINE

6

Kodi Smit-McPhee

“The Power of the Dog”

Netflix

7

Robin de Jesús

“Tick, Tick … Boom!”

Netflix

8

Troy Kotsur

“CODA”

Apple Original Films

9

Ben Affleck

“The Last Duel”

20th Century Studios

10

Willem Dafoe

“Nightmare Alley”

Searchlight Pictures

OTHER TOP-TIER CONTENDERS

11

Woody Norman

“C’mon C’mon”

A24

12

Ben Affleck

“The Tender Bar”

Amazon Studios

13

Bradley Cooper

“Licorice Pizza”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

14

Andrew Garfield

“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”

Searchlight Pictures

15

Jonah Hill

“Don’t Look Up”

Netflix

16

Idris Elba

“The Harder They Fall”

Netflix

17

Richard Jenkins

“The Humans”

A24/Showtime

18

Colman Domingo

“Zola”

A24

19

Jon Bernthal

“King Richard”

Warner Bros

20

Timothy Spall

“Spencer”

Neon/Topic Studios

ALSO IN CONTENTION

21

Mark Rylance

“Don’t Look Up”

Netflix

22

Jeffrey Wright

“The French Dispatch”

Searchlight Pictures

23

Corey Hawkins

“The Tragedy of Macbeth”

Apple Original Films/A24

24

Jason Isaacs

“Mass”

Bleecker Street

25

Reed Birney

“Mass”

Bleecker Street

26

Benicio del Toro

“The French Dispatch”

Searchlight Pictures

27

Al Pacino

“House of Gucci”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

28

Eugenio Derbez

“CODA”

Apple Original Films

29

Kelvin Harrison, Jr.

“Cyrano”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

30

Bradley Whitford

“Tick, Tick … Boom!”

Netflix

UNRANKED LISTING

Adam Beach

“Swan Song”

Apple Original Films

Aditya Geddada

“Encounter”

Amazon Studios

Adrien Brody

“The French Dispatch”

Searchlight Pictures

Alex Lawther

“The Last Duel”

20th Century Studios

Alex Wolff

“Pig”

Neon

Alexander Skarsgård

“Passing”

Netflix

André Holland

“Passing”

Netflix

Arsenio Hall

“Coming 2 America”

Amazon Studios

Ben Kingsley

“Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings”

Marvel Studios

Ben Mendelsohn

“Cyrano”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Benedict Wong

“Nine Days”

Sony Pictures Classics

Benedict Wong

“Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings”

Marvel Studios

Benicio del Toro

“No Sudden Move”

HBO Max

Benny Safdie

“Licorice Pizza”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Bill Duke

“No Sudden Move”

HBO Max

Bill Murray

“The French Dispatch”

Searchlight Pictures

Billy Magnussen

“The Many Saints of Newark”

Warner Bros

Billy Magnussen

“No Time to Die”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Billy Porter

“Cinderella”

Amazon Studios

Brendan Fraser

“No Sudden Move”

HBO Max

Brendan Gleeson

“The Tragedy of Macbeth”

Apple Original Films/A24

Brian d’Arcy James

“West Side Story”

20th Century Studios

Chang Chen

“Dune”

Warner Bros

Christopher Lloyd

“The Tender Bar”

Amazon Studios

Cillian Murphy

“A Quiet Place Part II”

Paramount Pictures

Colin Firth

“Mothering Sunday”

Sony Pictures Classics

Corey Hawkins

“In the Heights”

Warner Bros

Corey Stoll

“The Many Saints of Newark”

Warner Bros

Craig muMs Grant

“No Sudden Move”

HBO Max

Damian Lewis

“Dream Horse”

Bleecker Street

Daniel Durant

“CODA”

Apple Original Films

Daniel Ranieri

“The Tender Bar”

Amazon Studios

Dave Bautista

“Dune”

Warner Bros

David Alvarez

“West Side Story”

20th Century Studios

David Dastmalchian

“The Suicide Squad”

Warner Bros

David Harbour

“No Sudden Move”

HBO Max

David Morrissey

“The Colour Room”

Sky Cinema

David Strathairn

“Nightmare Alley”

Searchlight Pictures

Delroy Lindo

“The Harder They Fall”

Netflix

Dennis Quaid

“American Underdog”

Lionsgate

Dwight Yoakam

“Cry Macho”

Warner Bros

Ed Harris

“The Lost Daughter”

Netflix

Eduardo Minett

“Cry Macho”

Warner Bros

Edwin Hodge

“The Tomorrow War”

Amazon Studios

Florian Munteanu

“Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings”

Marvel Studios

Forest Whitaker

“Respect”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Gary Sinise

“Joe Bell”

Solstice Studios

Gregory Diaz IV

“In the Heights”

Warner Bros

Himesh Patel

“Don’t Look Up”

Netflix

Idris Elba

“Concrete Cowboy”

Netflix

Idris Elba

“The Suicide Squad”

Warner Bros

J.K. Simmons

“The Tomorrow War”

Amazon Studios

Jack Huston

“House of Gucci”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Jai Courtney

“The Suicide Squad”

Warner Bros

James Spencer Ashworth

“The Souvenir Part II”

A24

Jason Mamoa

“Dune”

Warner Bros

Javier Bardem

“Dune”

Warner Bros

Jeffrey Wright

“No Time to Die”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Jeremy Irons

“House of Gucci”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Jermaine Fowler

“Coming 2 America”

Amazon Studios

Jimmy Smits

“In the Heights”

Warner Bros

Joel Edgerton

“The Green Knight”

A24

Joel Kinnaman

“The Suicide Squad”

Warner Bros

John Cena

“The Suicide Squad”

Warner Bros

John Magaro

“The Many Saints of Newark”

Warner Bros

Jon Bernthal

“The Many Saints of Newark”

Warner Bros

Jon Hamm

“No Sudden Move”

HBO Max

Jonathan Groff

“The Matrix: Resurrections”

Warner Bros

Josh Brolin

“Dune”

Warner Bros

Joshua Henry

“Tick, Tick … Boom!”

Netflix

Julio Torres

“Together Together”

Bleecker Street

Kevin Kline

“The Starling”

Netflix

Kieran Culkin

“No Sudden Move”

HBO Max

Kit Harington

“Eternals”

Marvel Studios

Kumail Nanjiani

“Eternals”

Marvel Studios

Lakeith Stanfield

“The Harder They Fall”

Netflix

Leslie Odom, Jr.

“The Many Saints of Newark”

Warner Bros

Lil Rel Howery

“Free Guy”

20th Century Studios

Lucian-River Chauhan

“Encounter”

Amazon Studios

Luke Kirby

“No Man of God”

RLJE Films

Marc Anthony

“In the Heights”

Warner Bros

Mark O’Brien

“Blue Bayou”

Focus Features

Marton Csokas

“The Last Duel”

20th Century Studios

Mathieu Amalric

“The French Dispatch”

Searchlight Pictures

Matt Smith

“Last Night in Soho”

Focus Features

Matthew Perry

“Don’t Look Up”

Netflix

Michaael Gandolfini

“The Many Saints of Newark”

Warner Bros

Michael Chiklis

“Don’t Look Up”

Netflix

Michael Rooker

“The Suicide Squad”

Warner Bros

Mike Faist

“West Side Story”

20th Century Studios

Neil Patrick Harris

“The Matrix: Resurrections”

Warner Bros

Noah Jupe

“No Sudden Move”

HBO Max

O-T Fagbenie

“Black Widow”

Marvel Studios

Oscar Isaac

“Dune”

Warner Bros

Owen Teale

“Dream Horse”

Bleecker Street

Owen Wilson

“The French Dispatch”

Searchlight Pictures

Paul Walter Hauser

“Cruella”

Disney Plus

Pete Davidson

“The Suicide Squad”

Warner Bros

Peter Capaldi

“The Suicide Squad”

Warner Bros

Peter Sarsgaard

“The Lost Daughter”

Netflix

Pierce Brosnan

“False Positive”

A24

Rami Malek

“No Time to Die”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Ray Liotta

“The Many Saints of Newark”

Warner Bros

Ray Liotta

“No Sudden Move”

HBO Max

Ray Winstone

“Black Widow”

Marvel Studios

Reid Miller

“Joe Bell”

Solstice Studios

Richard Ayoade

“The Souvenir Part II”

A24

Richard E. Grant

“Everybody’s Talking About Jamie”

Amazon Studios

Richard Jenkins

“Nightmare Alley”

Searchlight Pictures

Richard Madden

“Eternals”

Marvel Studios

Rob Morgan

“Don’t Look Up”

Netflix

Ron Perlman

“Don’t Look Up”

Netflix

Ron Perlman

“Nightmare Alley”

Searchlight Pictures

Rory Cochrane

“Encounter”

Amazon Studios

Sam Richardson

“The Tomorrow War”

Amazon Studios

Scott Haze

“Old Henry”

Shout! Studios

Sean Penn

“Licorice Pizza”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Simon Helberg

“Annette”

Amazon Studios

Skeet Ulrich

“Finch”

Apple Original Films

Stanley Tucci

“Worth”

Netflix

Stellan Skarsgård

“Dune”

Warner Bros

Stephen McKinley Henderson

“Bruised”

Netflix

Stephen McKinley Henderson

“Dune”

Warner Bros

Stephen Park

“The French Dispatch”

Searchlight Pictures

Steven Yeun

“The Humans”

A24

Sylvester Stallone

“The Suicide Squad”

Warner Bros

Terence Stamp

“Last Night in Soho”

Focus Features

Timothée Chalamet

“Don’t Look Up”

Netflix

Timothée Chalamet

“The French Dispatch”

Searchlight Pictures

Timothy Olyphant

“The Starling”

Netflix

Toby Jones

“The Electrical Life of Louis Wain”

Amazon Studios

Toni Servillo

“The Hand of God”

Netflix

Tony Goldwyn

“King Richard”

Warner Bros

Tony Hale

“Being the Ricardos”

Amazon Studios

Tony Leung

“Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings”

Marvel Studios

Tracy Morgan

“Coming 2 America”

Amazon Studios

Tye Sheridan

“The Card Counter”

Focus Features

Tyler Perry

“Don’t Look Up”

Netflix

Vincent D’Onofrio

“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”

Searchlight Pictures

Vincent D’Onofrio

“The Unforgivable”

Netflix

Vincent Lindon

“Titane”

Neon

Vondie Curtis-Hall

“Blue Bayou”

Focus Features

Wesley Snipes

“Coming 2 America”

Amazon Studios

Willem Dafoe

“The Card Counter”

Focus Features

William Hurt

“Black Widow”

Marvel Studios

Yahya Abdul-Mateen II

“The Matrix: Resurrections”

Warner Bros

Yuen Wah

“Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings”

Marvel Studios

Zeljko Ivanek

“The Last Duel”

20th Century Studios

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Best Supporting Actor)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The most prominent Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each. Walter Brennan has the most wins in this category with three, while Mahershala Ali, Michael Caine, Melvyn Douglas, Anthony Quinn, Jason Robards, Peter Ustinov and Christoph Waltz have two. With four apiece, the most nominations in this category are shared between seven actors – Brennan, Jeff Bridges, Robert Duvall, Arthur Kennedy, Jack Nicholson, Al Pacino and Claude Rains. Christopher Plummer distinguishes being the oldest winner ever at 82 for “Beginners” and nominee for “All the Money in the World” at 88. The youngest winner is Timothy Hutton for his debut performance at 20 for “Ordinary People,” while Justin Henry is the youngest nominee ever at eight for “Kramer vs. Kramer.”.

2022 Academy Awards Predictions

2021 Oscars predictions are here.

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The date for the 94th Oscars will be held on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022

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