Overnight Defense & National Security — Russia expected to escalate war with Ukraine

The Hill
·8 min read
Tanks move during the Union Courage-2022 Russia-Belarus military drills
Tanks move during the Union Courage-2022 Russia-Belarus military drills


It's Tuesday. Welcome to Overnight Defense & National Security, your nightly guide to the latest developments at the Pentagon, on Capitol Hill and beyond. Subscribe here: thehill.com/newsletter-signup.

Russia is expected to escalate violence against Ukraine despite facing slowdowns in its advances.

We'll discuss today's developments, plus Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) hailing ongoing talks to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and another blow to the Navy in litigation from a group of special warfare service members over the vaccine mandate.

For The Hill, I'm Jordan Williams. Write to me with tips at jwilliams@thehill.com.

Let's get to it.

Russian invasion of Ukraine intensifies

Russia's war with Ukraine appears likely to intensify despite Ukraine putting up a defense that was better than expected.

Still less than a week into the invasion which began last Thursday, new concerning targets show how Moscow has been targeting civilians in the battle.

Senior administration officials held all-member briefings with lawmakers on Capitol Hill on Monday night, from which many emerged fearful of continuing violence but pleased with the resistance from Ukraine.

Slower than expected: Russia has fired more than 400 missiles since it began its invasion of Ukraine six days ago, though its advance on Kyiv has made little progress from a day prior, a senior defense official said Tuesday.

Beyond logistics, possible reasons for the slow advance include fierce Ukrainian resistance, as well as "evidence of a certain risk-averse behavior by the Russian military."

The U.S. also has "indications that morale is flagging in some of these units" due to the unexpected resistance, the official added.

The official noted, however, that it's still less than a week into the invasion and that Russia "will regroup, they will adjust, they will change their tactics." They also offered a caveat that "we certainly aren't seeing them be risk averse when it comes to civilian casualties and civilian infrastructure."

Concerning targets: The Russian military is targeting hospitals and civilian centers in a sign its war is likely to intensify in the coming days.

U.S. officials and individuals on the ground in Ukraine reported Russian forces targeting hospital buildings, broadcasting towers and critical infrastructure. Video went viral of a missile landing in Freedom Square in Kharkiv, one of the largest city centers in Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday said more than a dozen children had been killed, underscoring how the attacks have largely been indiscriminately targeting civilians.

'THE WORST IS YET TO COME'

Lawmakers emerged from a closed-door classified briefing Monday night concerned that Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to escalate the violence against Ukraine but emboldened by the resistance of the Ukrainian army. The briefers were said to include senior officials in the departments of State, Homeland Security, Treasury, Energy, USAID, and Intelligence.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) issued a blunt warning that "the worst is yet to come militarily."

"I think there's a commitment by the Ukrainian people to fight to the death, so the idea of Russia using overwhelming military power against innocent civilians is more likely today than it was yesterday," he told reporters.

"We need a Berlin airlift-type support for the Ukrainian economy and pour weapons into the country. But do not be fooled. The Ukrainians have fought bravely. They're freedom fighters of the 21st century. But the Russian military capability that is unused is pretty massive, and I expect a scorched-earth policy to unfold here in the coming days regarding Ukraine. I expect wholesale slaughter of Ukrainian citizens by the Russian military," he added.

Getting into Putin's head: The White House and other observers are increasingly sounding the alarm about Putin's mindset, as he seems poised to escalate violence with Ukraine.

Experts, analysts, lawmakers and even administration officials have speculated that Putin's isolation during the COVID-19 pandemic has raised his paranoia. They've pointed to decisions he's made such as the invasion itself and his move on Sunday to put his nuclear forces on alert in suggesting he is not making rational decisions.

U.S. intelligence agencies are reportedly keeping a close eye on Putin and his behavior, concerned that the Russian leader may order even more devastating violence against Ukraine's stiff resistance, which has managed to hold off the Russian army for nearly five days.

While some analysts say Putin has yet to unleash the full power of the Russian military, the ordered assaults on Ukraine have increased in violence and devastation in recent days.

Read our coverage of the Russia-Ukraine conflict:

Russia's advance on Kyiv slow, despite intensifying attacks: US official

Worries grow over Putin's stability, mindset

Russia widely expected to escalate violence in Ukraine

SIGN UP NOW

⏱ Don't miss a beat! Get on the list for NotedDC, The Hill's new insider take on the heartbeat of politics and policy, coming soon.

Schumer hails Iran nuke talks as 'good'

Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) leaves a press conference following the Democratic policy luncheon on Tuesday, March 1, 2022.
Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) leaves a press conference following the Democratic policy luncheon on Tuesday, March 1, 2022.

Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), who famously broke with then-President Barack Obama over striking a nuclear deal with Iran, says he now supports the discussions the Biden administration is having with Iran and allies to revive the defunct agreement.

"I think that having discussions on this issue is important," Schumer said when asked about the new effort to revive the nuclear deal that collapsed after President Trump pulled the United States out of it in 2018.

From 2015 to present: Schumer voted to advance a motion of disapproval on the original deal in September of 2015, along with several other Democrats including Sens. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), Ben Cardin (D-Md.), and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.).

The measure failed after Democrats filibustered it, saving Obama from having to issue a veto.

In 2017, he admitted having misgivings about the nuclear deal but said it should be given time to work.

That stance drew an angry jab from Trump, who tweeted in October of 2017: "Dem Senator Schumer hated the Iran deal made by President Obama, but now that I am involved, he is OK with it. Tell that to Israel, Chuck!"

Schumer's logic: Schumer explained that he voted in 2015 against the Iran nuclear because he thought there were "problems" with it.

But he now supports President Biden's efforts to re-establish the agreement and has urged the administration to address what he saw as the problematic elements of the original deal.

"There were problems with the Iran deal originally and many of us have urged in these discussions the Biden administration deal with those problems, but I think the discussions are important and good," Schumer told reporters Tuesday.

Read the full story here.

Court blocks Navy from enforcing vaccne mandate

A federal appeals court blocked the Navy from disciplining a group of special warfare personnel who cited religious reasons in refusing to get vaccinated, dealing the latest blow to the Pentagon's coronavirus vaccine mandate for service members.

In an opinion released late Monday, the New Orleans-based Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals upheld a ruling from a Texas federal judge, who ordered the Navy to not take "any adverse action" against the 35 sailors, finding that the vaccine mandate violated their religious freedom.

The government asked the Fifth Circuit for a partial stay on the original order so that it could still consider vaccination status to make decisions on deployment and other assignments.

What the court said: The panel said the defendants had not proven "paramount interests" that justify vaccinating the 35 plaintiffs "In violation of their religious beliefs."

"There is no evidence that the Navy has evacuated anyone from such missions due to COVID-19 since it instituted the vaccine mandate, but Plaintiffs engage in life-threatening actions that may create risks of equal or greater magnitude than the virus," the panel wrote.

The only religious exemption: Active-duty Navy service members had until Nov. 28 to be fully vaccinated, and reservists had until Dec. 28. According to the Navy's most recent COVID-19 update released last Wednesday, it has separated 320 personnel for not getting vaccinated.

The service has only conditionally granted one religious accommodation request for a member of the Individual Ready Reserve. That person is not required to be vaccinated while in the reserve but must be vaccinated before returning to active service.

Other litigation: This is not the only pending litigation over religious accommodations to the military's vaccine mandate. A group of Air Force officers filed a lawsuit in an Ohio federal court last week after being denied religious exemptions.

Read the full story here.

ON TAP TOMORROW

WHAT WE'RE READING

That's it for today! Check out The Hill's defense and national security pages for the latest coverage. See you Wednesday.

We want to hear from you! Take our newsletter survey to provide feedback on our offerings.