Overnight Defense & National Security — WH: Russia could invade Ukraine 'any day'

The Hill
·6 min read
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.


It's Friday, welcome to Overnight Defense & National Security, your nightly guide to the latest developments at the Pentagon, on Capitol Hill and beyond. Subscribe here: thehill.com/newsletter-signup.

National security adviser Jake Sullivan warned that a Russian invasion of Ukraine could involve an assault on Kyiv.

We'll recap all the latest updates, dive deeper into Sullivan's comments, plus break down President Biden's executive order splitting U.S. $7 billion in frozen Afghan funds for terror victims and humanitarian relief.

For The Hill, I'm Jordan Williams. Send tips to jwilliams@thehill.com.

Let's get to it.

Russian invasion could happen 'any day'

A Russian invasion of Ukraine could begin "any day," including before the end of the Winter Olympics, Biden administration officials warned Friday, conveying a greater sense of urgency about the threat of military movement by Moscow.

"It could begin any day now, and it could occur before the Olympics have ended," White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters during a White House briefing. The Beijing Olympics are scheduled to conclude on Feb. 20.

"I'm not going to get into intelligence information, but if you look at the disposition of intelligence forces ... the Russians are in a position to be able to mount a major military action in Ukraine any day, and for that reason we believe that it is important for us to communicate to our allies and partners, to the Ukrainians and to the American citizens who are still there," Sullivan said.

What an assault would look like: Sullivan suggested a Russian attack would likely begin with aerial bombings and missile strikes that could kill civilians indiscriminately.

He did not speculate on what the goal of an invasion would be but acknowledged "there are very real possibilities that it will involve the seizure of a significant amount of territory in Ukraine," including a major city like the capital Kyiv.

An attack on Kyiv could be devastating for Ukraine; it is the seat of the Ukrainian government and the most populous city in the country at nearly 3 million people.

An upcoming meeting: As the U.S. continues to warn of a possible military incursion, President Biden will speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday morning.

A U.S. official told The Hill that the Russians proposed a call on Monday and the U.S. counter-proposed a call on Saturday, which the Russians accepted.

Sullivan told reporters that the two leaders were likely to speak but did not offer a specific time frame.

The call will be the first between the two leaders in over a month and comes as the U.S. escalates warnings about Russia's buildup of more than 100,000 troops on the border with Ukraine.

US SENDING 3K MORE TROOPS TO POLAND

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Friday ordered an additional 3,000 U.S. troops be sent to Poland as fears over a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine rise.

The extra forces, sent at the direction of President Biden, increase the number of U.S. forces deployed and repositioned to Eastern Europe to 6,000.

The troops, who will come from the 82nd Airborne Infantry Brigade Combat Team based out of Fort Bragg, N.C., will depart over the next couple days and are expected to be in place by early next week, according to a senior Defense official.

The additional American troops ordered Friday will join the 1,700 airborne soldiers sent to Poland on Feb. 2, nearly two-thirds of which have already arrived, according to the Pentagon.

Those 1,700 are commanded by Maj. Gen. Christopher Donahue and are part of roughly 3,000 troops ordered to Eastern Europe last week.

And read our coverage on the Russia-Ukraine conflict

White House says Russian invasion could begin 'any day'

Biden, Putin to speak as US warns of imminent Russian invasion

Five things to know as US warns Russia could invade Ukraine 'any day'

Biden administration orders additional 3,000 troops to Poland

$7B in Afghan funds going to terror victims, humanitarian relief

President Biden signed an executive order on Friday intended to free up $7 billion in assets from Afghanistan's central bank being held in the U.S., half of which could go to humanitarian assistance in Afghanistan and the other half to compensation for the families of 9/11 victims.

The White House said in a release that the executive order is "designed to provide a path for the funds to reach the people of Afghanistan while keeping them out of the hands of the Taliban and malicious actors."

In signing the executive order, Biden is blocking property of Afghanistan's central bank that is held in the U.S. and requiring American financial institutions to transfer the assets into a consolidated account at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The frozen funds: The assets have been frozen since Afghanistan fell to the Taliban last year. The Biden administration has for several months been exploring potential avenues for unlocking some of the assets for humanitarian assistance without directly benefiting the Taliban.

The senior administration official said the Biden administration will spend the coming months setting up a third-party trust fund to administer the $3.5 billion in funds to support Afghanistan as officials await a court ruling.

An official cautioned that the signing of the executive order is "a step in a process that might lead to the unlocking of these funds for the benefit of the Afghan people," noting that the situation involves complex litigation.

Complex litigation: The U.S.-backed government fell in Afghanistan in August, as the Taliban took over the country. The U.S. overthrew the Taliban more than 20 years ago after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks spearheaded by Osama bin Laden, who was then in Afghanistan.

A number of U.S. victims of terrorism, including families of victims of the 9/11 terror attacks, are currently pursuing access to the Afghanistan central bank's funds in federal court. That work is expected to involve consultations with allies as officials try to prevent the funds from falling into the Taliban's hands.

A senior administration official said that a federal court in New York will ultimately need to issue a ruling to allow the $3.5 billion to be transferred to assist Afghanistan.

Read the full story here.

ON TAP TOMORROW

WHAT WE'RE READING

Well, that's it for today! Check out The Hill's defense and national security pages for the latest coverage. See you on Monday.