Pac-12 MBB Hot Seat Rankings: Will we see any changes in 2023?
The 2022-23 men’s basketball season was another disappointing one for the Pac-12 conference, with only one team surviving into the Round of 32 after Arizona, USC, and Arizona State all bowed out in the opening round.
UCLA will continue dancing into the Sweet 16, but after Arizona lost to 15 seed Princeton it was clear the conference wouldn’t make much of an impact in the big dance. Arizona State fought valiantly against six seed TCU before falling, while USC fell apart in the second half in a loss to Michigan State.
Despite continued mediocrity on the men’s basketball front, many programs aren’t making a significant effort to improve. Only one coach – Cal’s Mark Fox – was relieved of his duties after the season ended, with UW and Stanford each offering assurances for Mike Hopkins and Jerod Haase, respectively.
That, coupled with only a few coaches who are realistic candidates to take other jobs, will likely lead to another quiet coaching carousel in the Pac-12.
Below is a look at each Pac-12 coach and their current situation, ranked by the likelihood of a departure:
Vacant - California Golden Bears
Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
Contract status: Vacant
Hot Seat: He’s already done
Analysis: The Mark Fox era went as predicted, with an uninterested administration and booster group not giving Cal enough resources to compete in the Pac-12. Fox kept his job for so long primarily because of apathy, and now the big question becomes: will this administration prioritize finding a coach who can get this program out of the cellar, or will they find a relatively affordable option that won’t change the situation all that much?
Randy Bennett at Saint Mary’s is an option thrown around by many media members, but it seems almost impossible to imagine for me unless Cal is willing to throw a huge bag at him – which seems unlikely.
Other options include Stan Johnson at Loyola Marymount, Leon Rice at Boise State (although he signed an extension recently) and Joe Pasternack at UC-Santa Barbara.
Mike Hopkins - Washington Huskies
Mandatory Credit: Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports
Contract status: Through 2025 ($3M per year)
Hot Seat: Vote of confidence from AD (for now)
Analysis: Here’s a full quote from Washington AD Jen Cohen following another disappointing season for the Huskies:
“After completing a postseason review of the program and after several in-depth discussions with Coach Hopkins, I am hopeful that next season will once again see the Huskies competing for a Pac-12 championship and back in the NCAA tournament,” Cohen said. “Coach Hopkins understands our expectations and is committed to make any and all necessary changes to get us there.”
Hopkins won 20 or more games in his first two years, but has been on a steady decline ever since – resulting in a 16-16 season this year and a first round exit in the Pac-12 Tournament.
Hopkins isn’t going anywhere right now, but it’s hard to imagine he will stick around with another disappointing year in Seattle in 2023-24.
Jerod Haase - Stanford Cardinal
Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
Contract status: Unknown
Hot Seat: Vote of confidence (for now)
Analysis: A school spokesperson confirmed Haase will retain his job heading into next season, despite another season of complete irrelevance for the Cardinal on the hardwood.
Stanford went 7-13 in conference play, their fifth straight year finishing below .500 in the Pac-12.
Stanford, like Cal, doesn’t seem to have any urgency to improve on the basketball side, and the impending conference realignment rumors probably aren’t helping. Haase will keep his job for at least another year, but at some point they’ll have to make a change if they want to ascend out of mediocrity.
Wayne Tinkle - Oregon State Beavers
Mandatory Credit: Alex Gould – The Republic
Contract status: Signed through 2027 ($2.6M)
Hot Seat: Riding coattails of 2021 Elite 8 run
Analysis: Tinkle’s remarkable run to the Elite 8 in 2021 earned him a massive contract extension, but since then he has gone 14-49 including a disaster 3-28 campaign in 2021-22.
The deep run and his legacy at Oregon State, where his son Tres starred during that Elite 8 run, will keep Tinkle around at least for another year. But with football ticking up under Jonathan Smith – it’s hard to imagine this school will be content with an abysmal basketball program for much longer.
Kyle Smith - Washington State Cougars
Mandatory Credit: James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Contract status: Signed through 2027 ($1.5M)
Hot Seat: Flight risk?
Analysis: Washington State has to be happy with the results they’ve received from Smith since hiring him away from San Francisco in 2019.
However, with success at Columbia (55% win rate) San Francisco (62%) and now a notoriously difficult Power-5 program in WSU, Smith might end up being the biggest flight risk in the conference.
His ability to utilize the transfer portal and recruit high school talent, while winning games, could land him elsewhere if another job comes calling. Might not be this year, but WSU will need to pony up some cash if they want to keep him long term.
Bobby Hurley - Arizona State Sun Devils
Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Contract status: Signed through 2024 ($2.6M)
Hot Seat: Cooled considerably this month
Analysis: Hurley’s tenure at Arizona State has been polarizing, with many feeling he should be let go while many others think it’s more likely another program poaches him. The latter feels more likely following an excellent end to the 2022-23 season, where the Sun Devils defeated Arizona on the road, earned a play-in victory over Nevada, and played a really close game against TCU before falling in the first round.
Hurley’s ability to utilize the transfer portal has been a huge part of Arizona State’s success this season, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see another team try to poach him this cycle. If not, it’s hard to imagine Arizona State won’t retain him following his late season success.
Dana Altman - Oregon Ducks
Syndication: The Register Guard
Contract status: Signed through 2028 ($3.8M)
Hot Seat: Not going anywhere until after 2023-24
Analysis: Dana Altman and the Oregon Ducks missed the NCAA Tournament for the second year in a row, something that has not happened in Eugene since Altman’s first two years from 2010-2012.
Perhaps he’s lost his touch, or perhaps this group just didn’t get it done – but no one is going to make a move until Oregon’s elite recruiting class in 2023, led by KJ Evans, Mookie Cook, and Jackson Shelstad, gets in the building.
A predetermined retirement is the likely next move for Altman, and how this star-studded class performs next season will go a long way in determining when that move might happen.
Andy Enfield - USC Trojans
Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Contract status: Signed through 2028
Hot Seat: Potential flight risk
Analysis: Enfield is the first coach in USC history to win 20 or more games in four consecutive years. He has utilized the transfer portal well, with Boogie Ellis and Drew Peterson leading this team to an NCAA Tournament berth in 2023.
Could the John Hopkins alum and former Florida Gulf Coast coach jump back to the East Coast if given the opportunity? Of course, but an impending move to the Big Ten likely has Enfield staying at USC for the foreseeable future – as it makes clear sense for both sides.
Tad Boyle - Colorado Buffaloes
Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Contract status: Signed through 2027 ($2.4M)
Hot Seat: Enough goodwill built up
Analysis: The 60-year-old Boyle led Colorado to four straight 20 win seasons, but the 2022-23 season was a disappointing one. The Buffs went just 18-16 on the year, winning an early season game against Sweet 16 team Tennessee, but suffering multiple bad losses.
Boyle isn’t going anywhere right now, barring a surprise retirement, so Buffs fans should expect to see him still on the sideline for the foreseeable future.
Craig Smith - Utah Utes
Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-USA TODAY Sports
Contract status: Signed through 2027 ($2.1M)
Hot Seat: Very cool
Analysis: Smith’s 28-35 record in two years may not look impressive, but the Utes are ahead of schedule in the rebuild thanks in large part to Smith’s work at the helm. He hasn’t had enough success to get poached by a bigger program, but Utah will happily keep him around for as long as possible – making him among the safest Pac-12 coaches at the moment.
Tommy Lloyd - Arizona Wildcats
Mandatory Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports
Contract status: Signed through 2027 ($2.9M)
Hot Seat: Freezing cold
Analysis: Arizona’s first round upset loss to Princeton is a stain on Tommy Lloyd’s legacy, but he has otherwise been all you could have asked for at Arizona. The winningest coach in the first two years in NCAA history, Lloyd proved his recruiting prowess at Gonzaga and supplemented this year’s roster with solid transfer portal additions.
Lloyd will be the guy in charge at Arizona for a long time – barring multiple disastrous NCAA Tournament losses.
Mick Cronin - UCLA Bruins
Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
Contract status: Signed through 2028 ($4.1M)
Hot Seat: Freezing Cold
Analysis: There is absolutely no reason UCLA would move on from Cronin, who has led this program to a third straight Sweet 16 despite losing Jaylen Clark to a season-ending injury. Cronin would probably only leave for a very select few programs, so it seems like he will be in Westwood for a long time.
