Pac-12 realignment, expansion updates, rumors, speculation: Burning questions for conference

What does the future of the Pac-12 Conference hold?

As college conference realignment and expansion speculation and rumors continue to swirl, take a look at some burning questions facing the Pac-12 Conference and possible answers to those questions from college and conference insiders.

Keep coming back as we update this story with more burning questions surrounding the future of the Pac-12.

More: Pac-12 realignment, expansion: Demise, collapse of conference to Big Ten, Big 12 predicted

Could Pac-12 raid Mountain West in conference expansion?

Pac-12 Insider John Canzano writes: "Adding San Diego State to the Pac-12 would replace a small piece of the Southern California divot left by the defection of USC and UCLA. The Aztecs are worth about 1.1 million TV households. Thompson also mentioned Boise State and UNLV as possible targets. Fox and CBS currently share the Mountain West Conference inventory. CBS would still have control of the conference title game and, possibly, some Fresno State games, but it would be a significant geographic strategy play by ESPN. The half dozen or so Pac-12 athletic directors I am talking with are split on whether adding a couple of Mountain West Conference programs is the right move. Some of them believe it would add value. Others think the conference should be more ambitious and pursue a few higher-profile candidates in the Big 12."

Who are top Group of 5 expansion candidates for the Pac-12?

Pete Fiutak of College Football news lists San Diego State, UNLV, Fresno State, Boise State and Nevada as the best options for the conference in expansion. Of San Diego State, he writes: "The Tier 2 designation is a killer, but the Pac-12 can’t screw around right now. It’s the Pac-12 – it MUST have a presence in southern California. At the moment, the closest in-state school to LA is Stanford."

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Could Pac-12 go to unequal media-right revenue sharing?

John Canzano writes: "I’m told the conference members are discussing whether Pac-12 schools that earn postseason windfalls (College Football Playoff, NCAA Tournament, bowl games, etc.) should get to keep a larger share of those payouts. The conference members currently pool the postseason money and share equally. I think that’s going to change. But — would some of the Pac-12 schools also demand more media-rights money? It’s not something the Ducks — or anyone else — have been advocating for in open sessions, per a well-placed Pac-12 source. But if we’ve learned anything in the last couple of months, it’s that college athletics has left the traditional subsidization model in the rearview mirror."

Oregon, Washington among best fits for Big Ten?

Five Thirty Eight's Nate Silver writes: "North Carolina, Oregon and Washington are also schools that fit the paradigmatic Big Ten template of public flagship schools which are AAU members and the dominant college brands in their states. Beyond that, there are some variations on a theme. Oregon has the lowest U.S. News ranking and the smallest enrollment of these schools, but the best sports program. Washington brings the Seattle market and 47,400 students. Both schools would also provide natural rivals to USC and UCLA."

Are Pac-12 teams best options for Big 12 in expansion?

365 Sports' David Smoak, Paul Catalina, and Craig Smoak discuss what schools would be best in a hypothetical Big 12 expansion.

Utah, Stanford, Cal possibilities for Big Ten expansion?

Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight writes: "Stanford and Cal rate lower than I would have expected. They’re great fits — yes, Stanford is private, but its academic prestige and AAU membership are probably enough to make up for that — and Stanford has an excellent athletic program (that’s less true for Cal). Then there’s Utah, which rated higher than I expected. It has a few things going for it: The football program has turned from terrible to very competitive in recent years; it recently joined the AAU; and the state is growing prodigiously."

Does it make sense for Houston to join the Pac-12?

David Smoak, Paul Catalina, and Craig Smoak of 365 Sports discuss the rumors of Houston jumping to the Pac 12.

Are Arizona State and Arizona possibilities for Big Ten?

Five Thirty Eight's Nate Silver writes: "For the most part, the universities in this tier fall into the “good fit, mediocre sports and market” category. Virginia, Missouri, Pitt, Colorado, Arizona, Georgia Tech and Kansas all meet this description, for instance. The fact that the Big Ten has historically spurned both Missouri and Pitt should make the other schools in this category feel worse about their chances, although I would asterisk Georgia Tech as a high-upside play as an AAU member in the Atlanta market that used to have pretty good football. What about the other programs? Arizona State is a well-rounded candidate in a state with a growing population; its case is pretty similar to Utah’s, though it isn’t an AAU member or a flagship university (but does bring the Phoenix market)."

Will the Pac-12 collapse or survive?

Outkick's David Hookstead writes: "Will the PAC-12 exist in a few years? This question is being kicked around more and more as reports grow the Big Ten intends to poach many more teams and most survivors will flee for the Big 12. Currently, USC and UCLA are set to join the B1G in 2024. Initially, it looked like the PAC-12 and commissioner George Kliavkoff had stopped the immediate bleeding and the conference might hold. Granted, it looked like it would hold as a weak shell of itself but hold nonetheless."

Should rest of Pac-12 panic in wake of Oregon report?

Outkick's David Hookstead writes: "If Oregon does officially jump ship for the Big Ten, the PAC-12 is in serious trouble. As I’ve speculated before, the only thing holding the conference together at this point is Washington and Oregon holding steady. Once one or both of those programs leave, the race will be on for the lifeboats. Schools will be scrambling for safe landing spot as the PAC-12 breaks up, and many of them will likely end up in the Big 12 as the premier teams go to the Big Ten. Once the first domino falls, fans will almost certainly see the PAC-12 collapse in a very short period of time. We’re in a truly unprecedented era of college football, and anyone who says with complete certainty they know what is going to happen is lying or delusional. All we know right now is Oregon and the Big Ten are having serious conversations, and that should have the rest of the PAC-12 panicking."

How likely is it that Oregon will join the Big Ten?

Action Network's Brett McMurphy said on WJOX 94.5: “I’m fairly confident they will do that,” Brett McMurphy said of the Big Ten potentially accepting the Ducks. “This is all due process when schools are switching to other leagues."

More: ASU, Arizona conference realignment odds: Pac-12, Big Ten, Big 12 for Sun Devils, Wildcats?

How long can Pac-12 remain intact?

Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News writes: "Four things can be equally true: The Big Ten’s contract can contain a huge escalator clause to account for expansion … And Oregon representatives can be talking to the Big Ten … And the Four Corners schools can view the Big 12 as a viable option … And the Pac-12 can remain intact for the foreseeable future. From our vantage point, nothing has changed for the Pac-12 in the two weeks since news broke that ESPN would not participate in the Big Ten’s next media rights contract, which begins next summer. In theory, that was a positive development for the beleaguered conference: Lacking Big Ten content across its networks, Disney seemingly would be motivated to partner with the Pac-12."

What are Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah waiting for?

Pete Mundo of Heartland College Sports writes: "It’s over. The Pac-12 is done. And if you’re Colorado, you have to know this feeling all too well. One of the reasons the Buffaloes bolted the Big 12 was because they were concerned that if the Big 12 collapsed, they had no partner in the league to leave with. They were alone on an island. Well, Colorado is essentially back there again. And while some in the Colorado administration may view the Big 12 as a JUCO league, the reality is that they would be lucky to get back into the conference at this point. I believe they should be welcomed back in with open arms, and if Arizona, Arizona State and Utah are smart, they will also start looking east. At this point, the only benefit to the four corner schools to not leave the Big 12 is to not get the blame for ultimately sinking the Pac-12."

Could changes in Pac-12 Conference be a long time away?

The San Jose Mercury News' Jon Wilner writes: The Big Ten probably isn’t days or weeks away from adding Oregon or anyone else from the West Coast. The Four Corners schools probably aren’t days or weeks away from jumping to the Big 12. The process will take time, likely many weeks and perhaps many months. And while a rupture could occur — we aren’t here to guarantee the Pac-12’s survival — the most likely outcome remains just as it was a month ago: The 10 continuing members sign a new media contract that preserves the conference for the next three, five or seven years. That doesn’t seem like much. But given the rate of change in college sports, it’s an eternity.

What could further Big Ten expansion mean for Pac-12?

Brett McMurphy said on the Paul Finebaum Show: "It wasn't too long ago we had the six [automatic qualifying] conferences. The so-called power conferences back then. The Big East was one of those six and what happened, they got raided by the ACC and now we're left at the Power Five. The same thing I think unfortunately is going to happen with the Pac-12. They're going to lose four schools to the Big Ten. And then I think four schools out of Pac-12, the Arizona schools, Utah and Colorado, take a lifeline to go to the Big 12. Then there's no more Pac-12 and then we'll be left with four power conferences. Although realistically there's only two."

Who is to blame for potential collapse of Pac-12?

Heartland College Sports' Pete Mundo writes: "There are three parties to blame for the Pac-12’s eventual collapse: The Big Ten, USC and UCLA. That’s it. His anger at the Big 12 has always been misplaced and foolish. When the obituary for the Pac-12 is written, the Big 12 may get a footnote about being the final nail in the coffin, but the actual being of the Pac-12 was dead long before that. And where Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State and Utah end up in the obituary remains to be seen. But they will be able to write their way out of it, if they so choose."

How close is Oregon to joining Big Ten?

Brett McMurphy of Action Network wrote: "Oregon has initiated preliminary discussions with the Big Ten in Chicago to determine if the Ducks are compatible in the conference, sources told Action Network. Outgoing University of Oregon President Michael Shill, Oregon AD Rob Mullens and Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren were not involved in the discussions in Chicago, another source said. Last week the Big Ten signed a seven-year media rights deal worth more than $7 billion, sources said. The contract includes an escalator clause, which means the deal could approach nearly $10 billion if the Big Ten’s membership increases, network sources said. Even after adding USC and UCLA, the Big Ten “is not done” expanding, sources told Action Network last week."

More: Pac-12 football title odds: USC, Utah, Oregon favored to win conference in 2022 season

Where Pac-12 stands in college realignment, expansion

USA TODAY Sports' Erick Smith and Jim Sergent write: "The Pac-12 had previously considered expansion, including when the Big 12 was teetering in 2010. However, the league stood at 12 and seemed to have stability — until it was announced last summer that Oklahoma and Texas would join the SEC. An alliance between the Pac-12, Big Ten and ACC was announced to try and work together. That lasted 10 months until the Big Ten moved in and grabbed the Pac-12's two Los Angeles pillars. Now down to 10 schools, everything is possible. They could get raided again by the Big 12 or Big Ten. They could try to add schools from the Mountain West as well, including San Diego State State and Boise State."

Oregon's decision could have domino effect in Pac-12, college football

Marshall Scott of Pistols Firing writes: "It’s hard to imagine, if given the option, Oregon would choose the Big 12 over the Big Ten (just look at this TV deal), but if the Ducks were to fly to the Big Ten, the domino effect could push the Arizona schools, Utah and Colorado further into discussions with the Big 12. ... So, though Oregon might be more likely to go to the Big Ten than the Big 12 at this time, the next set of tumbling dominoes could be coming soon."

Where does Arizona fit in expansion and realignment?

Michael Lev of the Arizona Daily Star wrote: "In his first public comments since USC and UCLA announced they were leaving for the Big Ten, Arizona athletic director Dave Heeke expressed confidence in the future of the Pac-12. He also attempted to allay any concerns about where the UA might fit in the every-shifting landscape of college athletics. “We are strong. We’re solid. This institution will be in the right place," he said"

Which Pac-12 schools is Big Ten targeting?

Action Network's Brett McMurphy wrote: "Last month, Action Network reported the Big Ten would expand beyond 16 schools and was targeting Notre Dame, along with Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal from the Pac-12. Those plans have not changed, sources said last week. Regardless of whether Notre Dame joins the Big Ten or remains independent, the league still wants to add more Pac-12 schools to help reduce potential travel concerns for USC and UCLA, sources said."

Is the Pac-12 hanging by a thread?

Sports Illustrated's Kevin Borba writes: "All of this is occurring as the Pac-12 is still in the midst of their media rights negotiations, but if they lose one more school you could very well kiss the conference goodbye. Not only are there Pac-12 schools on the radar of the Big Ten, but schools such as Arizona, Utah, Colorado and Arizona State have all generated interest from the Big 12. The Big Ten continues to be on the offensive side and surging towards 20 teams, while the Pac-12 who is familiar with the tail in-between their legs position is on some sort of defense."

Which Pac-12 schools could go to the Big 12?

Brett McMurphy of Action Network wrote: "If Oregon and others from the Pac-12 leave for the Big Ten, the Big 12 has targeted Arizona, Utah, Colorado and Arizona State as potential members, sources said. While all this is ongoing, the Pac-12 is trying to acquire its new media rights deal, starting in 2024."

What are the odds of a Pac-12 Conference collapse?

Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News answered a question about the odds of the Pac-12 potentially collapsing if Stanford, Cal, Washington and Oregon left for the Big Ten.

He wrote: "100 percent. In that scenario, a total of six schools would be headed to the Big Ten, and the Four Corners (Arizona, ASU, Colorado and Utah) would undoubtedly leave for the Big 12. Sure, the conference could reform with Oregon State, Washington State and a slew of Mountain West schools, but it would be the Pac-12 in name only."

More: Ranking Big 12 expansion candidates: Best fits to join conference amid college realignment

Does the Pac-12's future hang in the balance?

CBS Sports' Dennis Dodd wrote: Separate from any Big Ten discussion, ESPN now has a chance to become somewhat of a "kingmaker" regarding these leagues. Each conference is eying the other's schools in what could become the next big realignment story. Without a Big Ten deal, ESPN has theoretically freed up money to spend as both conferences are currently in flux. The Pac-12 is desirable because ESPN would not otherwise have any games in the valuable "fourth window" -- after 10 p.m. ET. The "Pac-12 After Dark" tag has been ridiculed by some, but it would be valuable to ESPN. Taken to the extreme, it's worth asking: Would ESPN now have an influence over which league survives this round of realignment? There is already word circulating that the Pac-12 -- in the middle of its own media rights negotiations -- might have to agree to a media rights contract that allows Cal, Oregon Stanford and Washington an "out" if approached by another conference."

More: ASU, Arizona not among Pac-12 schools being evaluated for Big Ten expansion, report says

How vulnerable is the Pac-12 to further poaching?

Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News wrote: "But the Pac-12 and ACC are vulnerable to future poaching, the former more than the latter: With a grant-of-rights agreement that extends into the mid-2030s, the ACC is better defended against raids by the Big Ten and SEC; the Pac-12’s grant of rights deal expires in two years. (That said, we believe North Carolina, Virginia and Georgia Tech could be on the Big Ten’s radar in the future based on a combination of academic clout, media value, and recruiting pipelines.) The current situation is unprecedented. Every utterance from the Big Ten about further expansion, whether it’s a pronouncement by commissioner Kevin Warren or an anonymous source, is taken as an immediate threat to the Pac-12’s survival."

More: Pac-12 conference realignment: ASU's Michael Crow, Arizona's Robert C. Robbins could be key

What's the timeline for Pac-12 expansion?

The San Jose Mercury News' Jon Wilner wrote: "Most likely, a decision on expansion and the act of signing a new media rights agreement will unfold concurrently.  In our estimation, the course of events will follow one of two paths:— The Pac-12 signs an exclusive deal with ESPN, as a 10-school conference, in the next two or three weeks. — The Pac-12 negotiates with multiple bidders on the open market and takes a hard look at expansion in a process that  consumes six-to-eight weeks, if not longer."

More: ASU's Michael Crow slammed for 2019 Pac-12 comments amid college conference realignment

Who could the Pac-12 add in expansion?

Sports Illustrated's Kevin Borba included San Diego State SMU, UNLV, Fresno State, Boise State and Houston on his list.

He wrote: "Thus making it vital that the Pac-12 adds at least two more teams, but the optimal number would be six. Getting back to 12 is a must, but the conference needs to be on the offensive side of things for once and get ahead of the Big 12 and ACC when it comes to forming larger mega-conferences. The Big Ten and the SEC are already destined and in position to form their mega-conference, everyone else is playing catch-up. Now granted, there aren't any teams out there that will bring the value and prestige that the conference lost with USC and UCLA, but more teams equates to more markets, which equals more money."

More: Ranking Pac-12 expansion candidates: Best fits to join conference amid college realignment

Which Pac-12 schools could join USC and UCLA in Big Ten?

Big Ten Commissioner Kevin Warren recently told the Action Network's Brett McMurphy there are a "handful of schools" besides Notre Dame that the conference could potentially add in expansion. Sources indicated that Pac-12 schools Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal were among the schools being considered by the Big Ten.

More: Ranking Big Ten expansion candidates: Best fits to join conference in college realignment

Could the Big Ten reach out to more Pac-12 teams in expansion?

Dennis Dodd of CBS Sports writes: "CBS Sports reported last month the Big Ten was evaluating California, Oregon, Stanford and Washington as potential future league members. Rightsholders pushed back on the notion as they did not believe those current Pac-12 schools would bring equal value to the league as USC and UCLA did upon being added. CBS Sports subsequently reported interest had cooled on those four schools; however, adding those four schools would create additional inventory for the Big Ten, which could result in ESPN getting a piece of the action."

More: Are Pac-12 schools ASU, Arizona a package deal in college conference realignment?

Could UCLA pull out of the Big Ten?

Ryan Ford of the Detroit Free Press wrote: "Just hours after the Big Ten struck a mega-deal Thursday for its TV rights on CBS, Fox and NBC beginning in 2023 (give or take a season), the University of California Regents realized they might have some say in what conference UCLA competes in, or at least some say over how many 9 a.m. Pacific time kickoffs they can stand."

More: Pac-12 has been 'fractured' by Big Ten, Big 12 conference realignment, expansion chatter

Is the Big 12 pursuing expansion and could Pac-12 schools be potential targets?

Baylor coach Dave Aranda recently made some headlines when he told the Waco Rotary: “I know that there’s still opportunity in our league (for expansion) and potential suitors,” Aranda said. “I think that’s pretty real and that’s kind of happening right now. There’s talks that are happening right now.”

More: Pac-12 Conference, leadership slammed amid USC, UCLA Big Ten negotiations news

Which Pac-12 schools could the Big 12 target in expansion?

Sports Illustrated's Timm Hamm wrote: "If the Big Ten becomes aggressive to initiate the escalator clause in its new deal, it might target teams like Oregon and Washington. And if they jump ship, it would be the equivalent of pulling the plug on a PAC-12 that's already on life support. That would open the door for the Big 12 to come calling on schools looking for a new home. Schools like Utah, Arizona, Arizona State, and Colorado. That would be a huge win for a Big 12 that is struggling to remain relevant after the departure of Texas and Oklahoma in 2025."

More: Pac-12 expansion, realignment live updates: Rumors, speculation, reports for conference

Pac-12, ESPN have had 'productive' talks

Pac-12 Insider John Canzano wrote: "Talks between ESPN and the Pac-12 have been “productive” per a conference insider. “We’re still in the midst of positive conversations but haven’t reached a final offer stage,” the source said. “We’ve been much more engaged with George (Kliavkoff). We’re all in sync, we’re all in line. We’ve got some high level media consultants at the tables."

Reach Jeremy Cluff at jeremy.cluff@arizonarepublic.com. Follow him on Twitter @Jeremy_Cluff.

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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Pac-12 realignment, expansion live updates, rumors, burning questions